SA qualifiers face tough choice ahead of overseas play-offs

OPINION: The Stormers, Bulls and Sharks may have to narrow their focus when travel demands increase in the first two rounds of the European knockouts.

The good news is that two of South Africa’s leading franchises have qualified for the Champions Cup play-offs – after falling short last season.

The Stormers have reason to celebrate after crashing and burning in both tournaments last term.

Some might say the Bulls are lucky to advance to the next phase, given that they lost three out of four pool matches.

Nevertheless, they have qualified for the Round of 16, and perhaps most importantly, they have ended a seven-game losing streak across all competitions.

The bar is lower than it should be, but these are signs of progress.

The Sharks, by comparison, have finished surplus to Champions Cup requirements for the second-consecutive season.

The Lions drew with Perpignan this past Saturday – a result that cost them a place in the Challenge Cup play-offs. That, too, should be viewed as a sign of regression.

The story continues below…

The coaching teams in Durban and Johannesburg will have much to ponder over the coming weeks.

Clearly they don’t have what it takes to compete in the URC as well as Europe.

The early Challenge Cup exit may be a blessing in disguise for the Lions, as they will have the freedom to focus on the URC and their overriding quest to qualify for the quarterfinals for the first time.

Again, the bar is lower than it should be.

The Sharks may go the other way, focusing on the Challenge Cup instead of the second half of the URC league phase.

It’s unforgivable that the Sharks find themselves in this position, given their resources and player depth.

They were in a similar situation two years ago, after a series of poor URC results compromised their drive for a top-eight place. They eventually qualified for the Champions Cup tournament by winning the Challenge Cup title.

They’re not out of the URC play-off race just yet, given that only seven log points separate the seventh-placed Lions (21) and the 14th-placed Durban outfit (14).

If the Sharks win back-to-back matches against the Stormers in the coming weeks, they will shoot up the URC ladder – and remind all and sundry of their quality.

If they lose those matches, the play-off qualification equation will get a lot tougher, with away matches against the Bulls and Lions to come, before home clashes against Munster and Cardiff.

By late March, JP Pietersen and company will have decided whether it’s worth focusing on the Challenge Cup play-off against Connacht in Galway or the URC fixtures either side of the European block.

If they keep winning in the Challenge Cup, they could be overseas for five weeks. If they decide to focus on the Challenge Cup, they’re unlikely to field their best combination in the big URC fixtures.

The Stormers and Bulls may face a similar dilemma to that of the Sharks, given how the season is structured and the challenge of the “April bottleneck” – where teams are forced to bounce between hemispheres and competitions on a near weekly basis.

The Stormers are South Africa’s best bet for a title, and while they would prefer to play their Champions Cup Round of 16 clash at home, they may view a play-off in Toulon as more winnable than a knockout match in Toulouse.

But will Dobson send his best team to Toulon in early April?

The answer to that question may be shaped by the next set of results in the URC.

The Stormers lead the table, and may consolidate their position via back-to-back wins against the Sharks, away fixtures against the Lions and Bulls, and home matches against the Dragons and Edinburgh.

Even if they win four of those six matches, they may continue to lead the URC standings as the Champions Cup play-offs approach – and in that scenario, Dobson may be more inclined to attack the Toulon fixture as well as a potential quarterfinal in Glasgow.

There may be leeway to field a weakened team in the two subsequent URC games against Connacht and the Warriors in Cape Town, before the Stormers’ best combination gears up for a possible Champions Cup semifinal abroad.

But if the Stormers stutter in the coming weeks, Dobson may take a different approach.

The story continues below…

The Bulls’ schedule is very different, and it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see Johan Ackermann prioritising the URC over the Champions Cup.

As it stands, the Bulls will head to Glasgow on the first weekend of April as massive underdogs.

They narrowly missed out on an intimidating visit to Bordeaux in the Round of 16, but the reality is that Franco Smith’s Warriors have been as dominant as the reigning champions across the pool phase.

What is the priority for a Bulls side that has won four from 12 this season, and currently languishes at 11th in the URC standings?

It would be a disaster if the Bulls failed to qualify for the URC quarterfinals and next season’s Champions Cup. It’s worth remembering that they were South Africa’s leading side last term, and have featured in three URC finals to date.

Ackermann won’t be looking further than their current tour, which includes a match against Edinburgh this Friday.

The Scottish side was hammered by Bath last weekend, but will be tougher to crack at home, as the Bulls found out when they lost last season’s Challenge Cup quarterfinal at the Hive Stadium.

The same applies to the Lions, who will host the Bulls in the following round. It wasn’t long ago when Cash van Rooyen’s side won 43-33 at Loftus Versfeld.

Following a three-week break, the Bulls will play four consecutive home matches against the Sharks, Stormers, Cardiff and Munster.

Even if they come through that block with the desired results and climb the URC ladder, their best players may not be fresh for the subsequent Champions Cup play-off in far-flung Glasgow.

And if the Bulls don’t pick up the necessary results, Ackermann may look to target the two tour fixtures against the Dragons and Scarlets – and depending on the situation, a full haul of 10 log points – rather than the preceding Round of 16 match and any potential play-offs thereafter.

All of the above, of course, may be influenced by the availability of the nationally contracted Springboks – who usually take a lengthy break over February and March.

For teams like the Bulls and Sharks, who boast a large number of internationals, it could be an especially challenging period.

The Stormers would be ideally placed if they had secured home advantage for their Round of 16 play-off.

That said, if they continue to dominate the URC, they should have the leeway to attack the Champions Cup play-offs with their best team.

The same cannot be said for the other franchises, who will need to fight tooth and nail just to qualify for the URC quarterfinals and a place in next season’s Champions Cup.