Why Leinster's Champions Cup shocker will give SA teams hope

OPINION: The punch-drunk Irish giants may need to beat three physical South African teams in succession to secure an important United Rugby Championship title, writes Jon Cardinelli.

The recent Champions Cup Final between Bordeaux Bégles and Leinster did not pan out as expected.

Bordeaux were the best team on show over the course of the European tournament, and it’s for this reason that their win at the San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao on Saturday was widely predicted.

*Also read: Hits & misses – Rampant Bordeaux and Nienaber blame game

And yet, the manner of victory as well as the 22-point winning margin has raised a number of eyebrows.

Bordeaux have secured their second consecutive title, and have delivered a statement regarding France’s dominance in Europe.

It’s been six years since a team outside of France – Exeter Chiefs – won the Champions Cup.

Meanwhile, Leinster have recorded their fifth Champions Cup Final loss in the space of eight years.

And in the wake of a limp performance that culminated in a 19-41 defeat, their physicality, composure and game management have come into question.

After the Bilbao bloodbath, coach Leo Cullen highlighted Bordeaux’s speed on attack as the biggest point of difference.

Other commentators noted how Bordeaux bullied Leinster at the collisions and won the tactical-kicking battle.

While Bordeaux played with flair, they also played with physicality and intelligence – and there’s something to be read into the fact that they kicked 31 times while Leinster put boot to ball on just 19 occasions.

What does this mean for the upcoming URC playoffs, and for the Lions, Stormers and Bulls, who could face a desperate Leinster side over the next four weeks?

The ‘how’ of Leinster’s loss in Bilbao may well be significant.

While there are other permutations to consider, Glasgow Warriors should beat Connacht this Friday, while the Stormers and Bulls should win their home matches against Cardiff and Munster, respectively.

The odds are against the Lions winning in Dublin on Saturday – but they may feel that they have a chance after watching Leinster crumble in Bilbao.

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The Lions have the forwards to bully Leinster, and they have a flyhalf with the ability to convert forward dominance into territory and points.

Chris Smith won’t have the support of regular halfback partner Morné van den Berg – due to injury – but Haashim Pead could give the Lions options in the No.9 position.

Leinster are hurting in the wake of the loss to Bordeaux, and the Irish rugby community as a whole is demanding a response in the URC play-offs.

Another URC trophy won’t compensate for the latest Champions Cup disaster, but it may keep the wolves from the door.

With all of the above in mind, the clash in Dublin this Saturday should be particularly interesting.

The smart money is on Leinster winning the quarterfinal – but there’s a good chance that a physical battle with the Lions will take its toll ahead of a potential semifinal and decider.

If all of the home teams prevail this week, then Glasgow will face the Bulls, and Leinster will host the Stormers in the semifinals.

The Stormers will have their own point to prove this weekend, after losing to Cardiff in the final round of the league phase.

That said, they should expect to beat the Welsh side at home and to challenge the likes of Leinster in a semifinal staged in Dublin.

Leinster have struggled to cope with physical opponents in big matches, as seen in the recent clash with Bordeaux – and in previous Champions Cup deciders against La Rochelle.

The Stormers secured a 35-0 win against Leinster this past September, and on that occasion, the Cape forwards bossed their Irish counterparts, and the halfbacks managed the game superbly to win the territorial contest.

It would be unwise to write off Leinster completely – and given their draw for the URC play-offs, one would still expect them to progress to the Final.

But bruising battles against Bordeaux, the Lions and Stormers will take a toll, and they may not be in the best physical shape by the time they feature in a potential decider on June 20.

Regardless of what happens over the next two weeks, they will remember the defeat in Bilbao and other recent play-off failures.

South African fans will hope for a Connacht win against Glasgow this Friday, as it will increase the chances of a semifinal being staged in the Republic.

But Glasgow should do enough to advance to the next round, where they could face the Bulls, if the Pretoria-based franchise beats Munster.

The Bulls have lost two games in Glasgow this season – going down 12-21 in the URC league fixture and 21-25 in the Champions Cup play-off.

Since the fixture in Pau on January 16, the Bulls have won 10 out of 12 matches – a run that includes four out of five victories overseas.

Johan Ackermann’s charges are in a good space, and with a Springbok-laden pack and a double-World Cup winner in Handré Pollard at flyhalf, they may fancy their chances in the coming play-offs – and will believe that wins against Munster and Glasgow are within their reach.

And like the Lions and Stormers, they will have noted where Leinster fell short in Bilbao.

There’s a chance that the Bulls will progress to another decider in Dublin next month – and in that event, they will have reason to believe that the flow of the contest and the Final result may be very different.