World Rankings: How Ireland can take Boks' top spot

SPOTLIGHT: World Rugby revealed the ranking permutations for this weekend’s third rounds of the Nations Championship 2026 and World Rugby Nations Cup 2026.

*Also read: South Africa v Wales – Teams and Prediction

Permutation highlights:

• South Africa and France cannot improve their rating with victories over the lower-ranked Wales and Japan, respectively.
• The Springboks will surrender top spot if they suffer a shock loss to Wales and New Zealand beat Ireland, provided one of the margins is by more than 15 points.
• It is also possible for Ireland to climb to number one, but this would require South Africa to lose by more than 15 points and the Irish to win by the same margin.
• Ireland will swap places with New Zealand if they become the first team to beat the All Blacks at Eden Park since 1994.
• France could fall as low as sixth with defeat in Tokyo, while a return to the top 10 for the first time in three years is possible for Japan.
• Australia could drop out of the top 10 for the first time since the rankings began in October 2003 if they lose to Italy by more than 15 points and other results go against them.
• Italy will also surrender their place in the top 10 if beaten by that margin.
• Scotland, Argentina and England could all end the weekend in fourth place if France are beaten in Japan.
• Fiji will climb above a beaten Australia if they are able to claim a first Nations Championship victory against Scotland at Murrayfield.
• Wales cannot fall any lower than 12th this weekend as Georgia are unable to catch them, but a return to top 10 is possible for Steve Tandy’s men.
• Argentina and England will swap places if Los Pumas are able to taste victory in Santiago del Estero.
  Defeat for Romania against Samoa could see them drop to a new all-time low with Canada, Hong Kong China and
• Zimbabwe all able to climb above them with victories, depending on the margins involved.
• Hong Kong China and Chile can all secure or equal new all-time highs in the rankings if they beat the higher-ranked Uruguay and Georgia.
• Portugal, Chile, USA and Spain could all end the weekend in 14th place depending on results in the World Rugby Nations Cup across the Americas.
• Zimbabwe will become the higher-ranked of the two nations if they beat Canada and could reach a new high of 22nd, depending on the margin and Romania’s result.

Match official highlights:

• Nic Berry (Australia) takes charge of New Zealand v Ireland for the second time, having overseen the All Blacks’ 23-13 victory in Dublin in the 2024 Nations Series.
• Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand) will referee Japan v France for the first time, with both teams having a losing record with the New Zealand official in the middle.
• Christophe Ridley (England) is in the middle for Australia v Italy for the first time, having already refereed the Azzurri in 2026 with their 31-17 loss to Wales in the Guinness Men’s Six Nations.
• Matthew Carley (England) referees Fiji v Scotland for the first time, his last match involving Scotland having been a significant one, with his 50th test being their 26-23 victory over Wales in the Men’s Six Nations this year.
• Andrew Brace (Ireland) will oversee the South Africa v Wales fixture for the second time, having been in the middle for the Springboks’ 52-16 victory in a RWC 2023 warm-up match in Cardiff.
• Angus Gardner (Australia) referees Argentina v England for the second time, having been in the middle for the visitors’ 35-12 victory in Buenos Aires in July 2025.
• Angus Mabey (New Zealand) will take charge of Samoa v Romania for the first time, having already refereed Manu Samoa in the World Rugby Nations Cup in their 66-19 win over Hong Kong China on July 4.
• Craig Evans (Wales) referees Hong Kong China for the first time when they face Uruguay in Montevideo. This will be his second time refereeing Los Teros in the tournament after their opening round loss to Georgia.
• Jordan Way (Australia) will referee Chile and Georgia for the first time when they meet in Santiago, an encounter between two of the three unbeaten teams in the Nations Cup after two rounds.
• Damián Schneider (Argentina) takes charge of Tonga v Portugal for the first time, with the Argentinian to referee Os Lobos for the first time since 2019 when they beat Chile.
• Ben Breakspear (Wales) referees USA for the first time as they face Spain, hoping to complete the first phase of the Nations Cup with three wins from three. It will be the first time in nearly five years that the Welsh official takes charge of Spain.
• Tomás Bertazza (Argentina) will referee a team from Africa for the first time when he takes charge of Canada v Zimbabwe in Winnipeg. He has already refereed Canada once in this tournament, the historic 42-42 draw with Spain on July4.