Six Nations 2019: How Wales, England and Ireland can win the title
Wales, England and Ireland all still have a chance to win the 2019 Six Nations. Only Wales can make it a Grand Slam, making the fixture between them and Ireland the most enticing fixture of the weekend.
As the only unbeaten side remaining in this year’s tournament, Wales are the favourites to lift the trophy come Saturday. Just two points separate the two teams on the current Six Nations table, but a win will be good enough for Wales to secure the title.
To understand the scenarios if things get a bit more complicated, let’s start with the basics. The current Six Nations standings and, equally important, read here how points and bonus points are awarded at the tournament.
Six Nations 2019: Standings before the final round
1. Wales – 16 points
2. England – 15 points
3. Ireland – 14 points
4. Scotland – 6 points
5. France – 6 points
6. Italy – 0 points
Least complicated Six Nations scenario: Wales beat Ireland
In theory both Wales and England could finish on 20 points, if Wales win and England win with a bonus point. However, the kicker is that the
team that wins the Grand Slam gets three extra points. Thus, Wales will finish the Championship on at least 23 points if they beat Ireland. Which means Wales will be Champions.
So far, so simple.
How England can still win the title
If Wales lose and England win, Eddie Jones’ men will take the title.
All teams would have won four and lost one of their 2019 Six Nations matches, but England’s victories before the final round all came with a bonus point – since they scored four tries in each fixture. Wales have not yet secured a bonus point at this year’s tournament.
Any chance of Wales winning even if they lose and England win?
No chance. Even with two bonus points, Wales can only go to a maximum of 18 points while a win for England will take their tally to 19 points. Ireland’s chances, meanwhile, rest on the England result.
The complicated Six Nations scenario: Wales and England lose
Time to crunch some numbers. In this scenario, if Ireland win with a bonus point, they will retain the title on 19 points.
If Ireland win without a bonus point, they’ll be on 18 points. England can only get to a max of 17 points if they lose with a bonus point, so they’ll be out of the running.
But Wales will remain in with a chance. They can get to 18 points if
they score at least four tries and lose by less than seven points.
So, Wales losing by five or less means they will still take the title, decided on points difference.
However, if Ireland beat Wales by six points exactly, the two teams are level on points. In this case, Ireland take the title, provided Wales don’t score four more tries than them in defeat.
If the teams were to finish level on points, points difference and tries scored, the title would be shared.
How Ireland can win the 2019 Six Nations
They must beat Wales, preferably with a bonus point. The BP win will take Ireland to 19 points, but they’ll have to wait for the result between England and Scotland. If it is a draw (with no try bonus point for England) or if Scotland won, Ireland would be champions.
And then there’s the other, more complicated scenario explained above.
Let’s break down some of the scenarios one-by-one.
Six Nations 2019: Title-winning scenarios for Wales, Ireland and England
1. Wales beat Ireland
Result: Wales win Six Nations
2. Wales draw against Ireland
If England beat Scotland with a bonus point
Result: England win the Six Nations
If neither England nor Wales earn a bonus point
Result: England win the Six Nations
If England do not earn a bonus point, but Wales do.
Result: England and Wales will be matched for 19 points and it all comes down to points difference. England are superior in this regard heading into the final round, so the most likely outcome is that England will win the Six Nations.
3. England draw
If both Wales and England do or do not get a bonus point.
Result: Bonus-point draws for both teams will see Wales finish on 19 points and England on 18 points or NO BP draws would see them finish 18 and 17 points, respectively.
Result: Wales win the Six Nations
If England get a bonus point and Wales don’t
Result: With both sides level on 18 points in this scenario, it will come down to points difference again and England are the most likely winners.
If Wales get a bonus point and England do not.
Result: Wales will win the Six Nations.
4. Wales lose against Ireland
If England lose to Scotland and Ireland take a BP win.
Result: Ireland will retain the Six Nations title.
If Ireland do not get a bonus point and Wales take two bonus points.
Result: Ireland and Wales will be level on points so it’s down to the difference, again. Wales is ahead of Ireland in that regard as things stand, so they’re most likely to win the title (if England lose to Scotland).
If Wales get one or no bonus points and England lose to Scotland.
Result: Ireland will win the Six Nations.
6. England beat Scotland
These scenarios apply if Wales also lose against Ireland.
England get BP victory
England finish on 20 points while the maximum Ireland can finish on is 19 points.
Result: England win Six Nations
If England don’t get BP victory…
And Ireland don’t get BP victory…
England would finish on 19 points and Ireland on 18.
Result: England win Six Nations
Ireland get BP victory
England and Ireland will be matched for be level on 19 points, so we go back to points difference to decide the winner. England’s tally is far more impressive at this stage, so they are most likely to win the title.
