STAT ATTACK: When the numbers don't add up

ANALYSIS: Samuel Langhorne Clemens famously popularised the saying: ‘There are three kinds of lies – lies, damned lies, and statistics.’

The American writer, humorist, and essayist known by the pen name Mark Twain, put forward the idea that statistics can have persuasive power, even when used inappropriately.

It is certainly appropriate when looking at some of the statistics in the build-up to the South African conference decider between the Sharks and Lions at Kings Park on Saturday.

While the Six Nations returns to centre stage for the final two rounds of the Championship, the two SA franchises will battle it out in a United Rugby Championship Round One rematch in Durban – postponed from September.

The Sharks can win the SA Shield with a win over the Lions.

However, the Stormers, who currently sit top of the SA standings, will claim the Shield if the Lions win.

It becomes even more mystifying if you consider the overall tournament standings.

The Bulls are the top-ranked South African team, in third place with 41 points after eight wins from 12 starts.

They are followed by the Sharks – fourth, with 34 points with seven wins from 11 starts.

The Lions (ninth, 28 points from six wins) and the Stormers (12th, 28 from five wins) are outside the play-off placings.

Now, to really muddy the waters, the URC stats will have us believe that the Stormers are South Africa’s best attacking team – ranking fifth overall on the attack stats.

The Stormers are eight for points scored (272), 10th for tries (34, second-worst of the SA teams) and 10th for defenders beaten (231).

But they are first for offloads (164) and fourth for metres gained (4435) and clean breaks (100).

The Sharks are sixth overall on the attack stats – 288 points scored (fifth), 36 tries scored (ninth), 118 offloads (sixth), 4140 metres gained (eighth), 228 defenders beaten (12th) and 91 clean breaks (sixth).

The Bulls, as the leading SA team, rank seventh in the attack stats – 316 points scored (third overall and by some distance SA’s most productive team), 42 tries (fourth overall, also SA’s top team), 106 offloads (seventh), 4238 metres gained (sixth), 199 defenders beaten (16th) and 78 clean breaks (eighth).

The Lions, despite their reputation as an ‘exciting’ team with a propensity for an expansive game plan, is only ninth on the attack ladder – 258 points (12th), 33 tries (12th), 105 offloads (eighth), 4393 metres gained (fifth), 247 defenders beaten (seventh) and 99 clean breaks (fifth).

Now, make sense of all those mensurations.

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