Preview: Crusaders v Hurricanes
SUPER RUGBY SEMIFINAL: The Hurricanes will have to do what no other team before has achieved – win a play-off match in Christchurch.
The Crusaders have an astonishing play-off record in the competition – having contested play-off (knock-out) matches on 35 occasions.
They have won 25 of those, but not one of the defeats were in Christchurch – where they have 19 knock-out victories to their credit.
Additionally, the hosts have emerged victorious in all 11 semifinals contested by two New Zealand teams, including three Crusaders’ wins over the Hurricanes.
The last team to beat them in a play-off match was the Lions in 2016 and their last play-off loss on New Zealand soil was against the Chiefs in 2013.
The Crusaders are also on a 13-match winning streak.
However, the Hurricanes can take comfort in the fact that they have won six of their last 10 meetings against the Crusaders.
Crusaders coach Scott Robertson said there is no chance of complacency, despite his team being overwhelming favourites.
“This game is going to be huge, it doesn’t get any bigger than a New Zealand derby match in the knock-out stages of Super Rugby,” Robertson said.
“Everyone who has worn the jersey for us this season has performed, so this was the hardest team to name because of the great depth we have in our squad.
“It’s always a privilege to play at home, but to host a semifinal in front of our fans adds another level of anticipation and pride to the mix.
“Our fans have been right behind us all season and we’re excited to once again play for them in this week’s semifinal,” Robertson added.
Hurricanes coach Chris Boyd admitted the stats do not favour his team – since they have never beaten the Crusaders in a play-off match.
“There’s a whole bunch of stats that’ll tell you that home-team advantage in play-offs in Super Rugby is significant,” Boyd told stuff.co.nz.
“If you look at the win-loss, home and away is significant; it’s even more significant for the Crusaders in the fact that they’ve never lost a play-off game down there ever.”
The Hurricanes do have a lethal backline, but the question is which team will dominate the forward exchanges – as that is where the contest will be decided.
“I don’t think they’ve got that much vulnerability, really,” Boyd said.
“They’ve got a good set-piece and they’re good at the breakdown, they’ve got a good kicking game and they’ve got a good attacking game, a good defensive game and they’re not playing-through champions and winners of the round-robin for any other reason than that they’re a bloody good side.”
Recent results:
2018: Crusaders won 24-13, Christchurch
2018: Hurricanes won 29-19, Wellington
2017: Hurricanes won 31-22, Wellington
2017: Crusaders won 20-12, Christchurch
2016: Hurricanes won 35-10, Christchurch
2015: Crusaders won 35-18, Christchurch
2015: Hurricanes won 29-23, Wellington
2014: Hurricanes won 16-9, Wellington
2014: Hurricanes won 29-26, Christchurch
2013: Crusaders won 25-17, Christchurch
Prediction: The Hurricanes have won six of their last nine games against the Crusaders; however, they have never beaten them in the post-season from four previous attempts. Each of the previous 11 all-New Zealand semi-finals in Super Rugby has been won by the hosts on the day. This will be the Crusaders 20th finals game on home soil; they remain undefeated in such fixtures and haven’t conceded more than 13 points in any of their last eight. Only the Crusaders (4) have scored more tries after stealing an opposition line-out than the Hurricanes (3) this season. Michael Alaalatoa has scored a try for the Crusaders in each of his last two games against the Hurricanes; he has scored just one other try in his Super Rugby career. The Hurricanes do have a realistic chance of an upset, but the smart money is on the Crusaders – who should win by nine points.
Teams:
Crusaders: 15 David Havili, 14 Seta Tamanivalu, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 George Bridge, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Matt Todd, 6 Jordan Taufua, 5 Samuel Whitelock (captain), 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Makalio, 17 Tim Perry, 18 Michael Alaalatoa, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Pete Samu, 21 Mitchell Drummond, 22 Mitchell Hunt, 23 Braydon Ennor.
Hurricanes: 15 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 14 Julian Savea, 13 Jordie Barrett, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Ben Lam, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Thomas Perenara, 8 Blade Thomson, 7 Gareth Evans, 6 Brad Shields (captain), 5 Sam Lousi, 4 Michael Fatialofa, 3 Jeff To’omaga-Allen, 2 Ricky Riccitelli, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 James O’Reilly, 17 Chris Eves, 18 Ben May, 19 Vaea Fifita, 20 Ardie Savea/Reed Prinsep, 21 Jamie Booth, 22 Ihaia West, 23 Wes Goosen.
Date: Saturday, July 28
Venue: AMI Stadium, Christchurch
Kick-off: 19.35 (07.35 GMT)
Expected weather: Times of clouds and sun, with 25 percent chance of precipitation. High of 15°C and low of 5°C
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Mike Fraser (New Zealand), Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
TMO: Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
Compiled by Jan de Koning, additional reporting by AFP
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* Statistics provided by Opta Sports
