Preview: Highlanders v Chiefs

The Highlanders will hope that home ground advantage will see them advance to Super Rugby's semifinals for the first time in more than a decade.

They face a Chiefs team that won the tournament twice in the last three years and determined to improve on last year's performance – when they were knocked out of the competition in the preliminary play-offs.

The Highlanders collected the second-most points in the competition, behind runaway leaders the Hurricanes, but were placed fourth on the standings as a result of the tournament's off-the-wall conference system.

The Chiefs, fifth on the official standings, would have been fourth had it not been for the conference system.

Apart from having homeground advantage, the Highlanders have also been boosted by the return from injury of inspirational leader and No.8 Nasi Manu, All Black centre Malakai Fekitoa and lock Mark Reddish.

"Nasi's a real spiritual leader for us," scrumhalf Aaron Smith said.

"He does a lot of key talking, to the big boys especially.

"He sets the mood with the way he plays, he's a pretty easy man to follow."

The Highlanders demolished the Chiefs 36-9 in Invercargill three weeks ago, scoring four unanswered tries.

And the Highlanders also snatched a late 20-17 win over the Chiefs in their other meeting, in Hamilton, in March – through two penalties after the Chiefs had dominated possession and territory.

"They're a very smart team and they've also got a real good culture down there," Chiefs captain Liam Messam said.

"It looks like they play for each other, so it's going to be a hell of game."

The Chiefs, winners in 2012 and 2013, have hooker Hika Elliot and flank Sam Cane back, while Brad Weber starts at scrumhalf after Chiefs dynamo Augustine Pulu fractured a forearm.

Manu felt the biggest pointer for this week could be that victory in Invercargill.

''We can take a little bit of confidence into the game from beating them," Manu said.

"But I guess play-offs are totally different. Both teams are going to be at their absolute best. It is going to be about executing their game plans and whatever team does that the best will come out on top.

''Play-offs are a little bit more special. There are no guarantees on next week so there is a little bit more edge. So I think this game is going to be huge.''

Manu expects the Chiefs to throw everything but the kitchen sink at the home side.

They have picked a big pack and will seek to monster the Highlanders up front.

Manu will be up for the fight, despite the recent enforced injury break.

''We are fighting to have another week and the Chiefs will be the same. I think we have a good game plan and it is all about how we execute it.''

''This week is all mental, really. We are going to be in dark places. Sometimes you don't have to be that fit – just be mentally tough.''

Players to watch:

For the Highlanders: You never look past the Smiths, Ben and Aaron, as the creative force in the backline, while Malakai Fekitoa's return will also be a catalyst. However, the key will be flyhalf Lima Sopoaga's control and the direction he gives from flyhalf. While the hype is around the return of No.8 and co-captain Nasi Manu, the most improved player has been flank Dan Pryor. Mark Reddish is another key forward.

For the Chiefs: No doubt the return of Sonny Bill Williams means the Highlanders' defence will be on high alert, while Damian McKenzie and Tim Nanai-Williams can also do some serious damage on attack. Liam Messam will always lead from the front, even though some of his aggression at times are over the top, while Sam Cane is another big factor around the park. However, Brodie Retallick is the real muscle of the team, while Hika Elliot also brings lots of energy.

Head to head: Almost every position will bring with it some intrigue and entertainment, but op of that list will be in the midfield – where Malakai Fekitoa and Richard Buckman (Highlanders) are up against the Chiefs' famed strike force of Tim Nanai-Williams and Sonny Bill Williams. Nasi Manu  (Highlanders) against Liam Messam (Chiefs) will be another keenly contested showdown. The second row battle between Mark Reddish (Highlanders) and Brodie Retallick (Chiefs) could go a long way towards decided the tight forward exchanges.

Recent results:

2015: Highlanders won 36-9, Dunedin

2015: Highlanders won 20-17, Hamilton

2014: Highlanders won 29-25, Dunedin

2014: Chiefs won 21-19, Hamilton

2013: Chiefs won 19-7, Hamilton

2013: Chiefs won 41-27, Dunedin

2012: Chiefs won 27-21, Dunedin

2012: Highlanders won 23-19, Hamilton

2011: Chiefs won 20-7, Hamilton

2011: Highlanders won 23-13, Dunedin

Prediction: The Highlanders have won their last four in a row at home, with three of those wins coming by 18 points or more. Despite losing on their last two trips to Dunedin, the Chiefs had won six of their seven away meetings against the Highlanders before that. Both these sides have played in the qualifier once before, with both losing by fewer than five points last year. The Chiefs, however, have won five of their eight games overall when they have made it to the post-season, while the Highlanders have won just one of six which came in the 1999 semifinal – their most recent play-off match in Dunedin. Only the Brumbies conceded fewer tries than the Chiefs this season (27), while only two sides scored more tries than the Highlanders (54). The Chiefs have averaged the most offloads per game this season (17.5) while the Highlanders have allowed the most per game (13.6). The Chiefs have conceded the most turnovers per game this season (18.4), while opponents of the Highlanders have conceded more turnovers than against any other team (19.4). The Highlanders have scored a try in every game this season, while the only game the Chiefs emerged try-less from in the regular season was against the Highlanders in Round 16. The Highlanders also restricted the Chiefs to their lowest metre gain (333), defenders beaten (seven) and joint fewest clean breaks (5) in that game. Only TJ Perenara has scored more tries than Waisake Naholo this season (nine), who also boasts the third highest metres gained (1,200). There will not be much in it at the end, but the Highlanders should sneak it by a single score.

Teams:

Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (co-captain), 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Richard Buckman, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu (co-captain), 7 Dan Pryor, 6 Elliot Dixon, 5 Mark Reddish, 4 Alex Ainley, 3 Josh Hohneck, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Brendon Edmonds.

Replacements: 16 Ash Dixon, 17 Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18 Ross Geldenhuys, 19 Joe Latta, 20 Gareth Evans, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Marty Banks, 23 Shaun Treeby.

Chiefs: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Bryce Heem, 13 Tim Nanai-Williams, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 James Lowe, 10 Andrew Horrell, 9 Brad Weber, 8 Liam Messam (captain), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Michael Fitzgerald, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Matt Symons, 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Pauliasi Manu.

Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Siate Tokolahi, 18 Jamie Mackintosh, 19 Mitchell Crosswell, 20 Michael Leitch, 21 Kane Hammington, 22 Marty McKenzie, 23 Seta Tamanivalu.

Date: Saturday, June 20

Venue: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin

Kick-off: 19.35 (07.35 GMT)

Expected weather: The indoor stadium means the weather will have no real impact, but for the record there is a possibility of snow in the region – while Dunedin will have a high of 8°C and a low of 1°C

Referee: Chris Pollock (New Zealand)

Assistant referees: Nick Briant (New Zealand), Mike Fraser (New Zealand)

TMO: Aaron Paterson (New Zealand)

Compiled by Jan de Koning

@King365ed

@rugby365com

Statistical information provided by Opta Sports