Preview: S15 Round 16, Part One
The ninth-placed Crusaders could be ruled out of Super Rugby's play-offs for the first time in more than a decade.
The seven-time champions last missed the knock-out stages of the competition in 2001, when they finished a lowly 10th. The only other times they did not make the cut was in the first two year's of the sport's professional era, 1996 and 1997.
Since 2001 they have not only won seven titles in 13 years, but also finished runners-up on four other occasions.
They will need to cause a major upset against the competitions runaway leaders, the Hurricanes, in Nelson on Friday to avoid the ignominy of finishing with double digits as their final position in the tournament.
This intriguing encounter at Trafalgar Park is followed by the crunch clash between the Brumbies and Bulls in Canberra – two teams not quite as desperate as the Crusaders, but also on the verge of losing touch with the tournament's pace setters. The Brumbies are currently in sixth place and Bulls in eighth.
Friday's action is completed when two teams, the Sharks (11th) and Rebels (10th), face off in Durban. For all intents and purposes both are already out of the running and will be playing for pride only.
We look at Friday's matches!
Friday, May 28
Crusaders v Hurricanes
(Trafalgar Park, Nelson – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)
The fortunes of the two teams couldn't be more contrasting if they tried.
The Hurricanes have already secured their place in Super Rugby's season-ending play-offs – even though they are still chasing a home semifinal.
The Crusaders have accepted, barring a miracle, they are out of play-off contention.
The seven-time champions will be playing for pride and hoping to keep their dignity intact.
Having been decimated by injuries – including concussions to key players Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock and midfielder Ryan Crotty – the Crusaders are also without flyhalf Colin Slade (thigh), prop Joe Moody (foot) and fullback Israel Dagg.
The table-topping Hurricanes – who have been runners-up once and reached the semifinals on another five occasions – are determined to go all the way this year.
That means showing no mercy to their compatriots and recording a win that will guarantee them first place on the standings.
"It's pretty satisfying," Hurricanes captain Conrad Smith told the Dominion Post, when asked about his team's lofty standing this year.
"From four years ago it's largely the same group who were told we weren't much of a rugby team. We haven't had to recruit much.
"We've got Ma'a [Nonu] back and Franksy [Ben Franks] from down south, and a few guys have come through the region. I don't think a lot of the other New Zealand teams could boast the same thing."
And Smith said there was no chance of complacency with the squad desperate to make the good times flow through to a home semifinal in Wellington.
"We want to keep winning, we're enjoying the ride we're on. We don't want to just stagger into the playoffs… you lose momentum and that's when everything comes undone."
Recent results:
2015: Hurricanes won 29-23, Wellington
2014: Hurricanes won 16-9, Wellington
2014: Hurricanes won 29-26, Christchurch
2013: Crusaders won 25-17, Christchurch
2013: Hurricanes won 29-28, Wellington
2012: Hurricanes won 23-22, Christchurch
2012: Crusaders won 42-14, Wellington
Prediction: The Hurricanes have won five of their last six Super Rugby games against the Crusaders. However, all of these victories have come by a margin of seven or fewer points. The Canes remain unbeaten on the road this season, winning all six games and not conceding more than 19 points in any of these matches. The Crusaders have averaged more clean breaks per game (11.3) than any other side this season while the Hurricanes lead the way for defenders beaten (23). The Canes (96 percent) and the Crusaders (92 percent) rank first and second respectively for scrum success this season. The Hurricanes have gained more metres per game than any other side this season (533) while the Crusaders rank second in that regard (520). The Crusaders will make a fist of it and can even cause an upset. However, we feel the Hurricanes have too much class and will win by more than a converted try.
Teams:
Crusaders: 15 Tom Taylor, 14 Nafi Tuitavake, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 David Havili, 11 Nemani Nadolo, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Mitchell Drummond, 8 Jordan Taufua, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Matt Todd, 5 Jimmy Tupou, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Ben Funnell, 1 Alex Hodgman.
Replacements: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 Tim Perry, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Dominic Bird, 20 Luke Whitelock, 21 Andy Ellis, 22 Kieron Fonotia, 23 Jone Macilai.
Hurricanes: 15 James Marshall, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Conrad Smith (captain), 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Otere Black, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Blade Thomson, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Brad Shields, 5 James Broadhurst, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Reggie Goodes.
Replacements: 16 Motu Matu'u, 17 Ben May, 18 Ben Franks, 19 Mark Abbott, 20 Victor Vito, 21 Chris Smylie, 22 Rey Lee-Lo, 23 Matt Proctor.
Referee: Ben O'Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Kane McBride (New Zealand), Richard Kelly (New Zealand)
TMO: Chris Wratt (New Zealand)
Brumbies v Bulls
(Canberra Stadium, Canberra – Kick-off: 19.40; 11.40 SA time; 09.40 GMT)
The Brumbies are planning an early blitzkrieg against the Bulls, hoping to catch the South African tourists napping and forcing them to chase the game.
Brumbies win Joe Tomane said they are wary of the Bulls, a physical outfit that can scrap to the bitter end if the game is close.
"We have lost a few tight games this year, so the way to not lose a tight game is to score four tries in the first 20 minutes, blow it out of the park," Tomane told the Canberra Times.
"We'll be trying to do that, but they're a quality side and I don't think they'll let us.
"It will be a tight contest and we'll be doing everything we can to get the win."
Bulls coach Frans Ludeke sees the game very differently, expecting the Brumbies to use their much-vaunted kicking game to secure field position before launching any raids.
"It will be like Test rugby, with field position, turnovers, special moments," Ludeke said in a teleconference call from the team's base in Canberra.
He said basics, like the set pieces, will need to be spot on.
The Bulls coach said his team has worked hard on their set pieces, especially the scrums – which were an issue earlier in the season.
"That will be a challenge and something we have worked on, to get the pack to function as a unit," Ludeke said, adding: "That has been a focus area for us and it will be a test to see how much we have improved."
He said that with his team in a must-win situation, there has been a different focus this wee.
"We know there is no longer a safety net," he said of their hopes to make the play-offs.
"We need to be spot-on with our execution. The team is responding well and we know we need a special performance at the weekend."
Recent results:
2014: Bulls won 44-23, Pretoria
2013: Brumbies won 26-23, Pretoria (semifinal)
2013: Brumbies won 23-20, Canberra
2012: Bulls won 36-34, Pretoria
2010: Bulls won 50-32, Pretoria
2009: Brumbies won 32-31, Canberra
Prediction: The last six games between these sides have seen an average aggregate of 62 points scored. In fact, in the entire 19 Super Rugby games between the teams, the average aggregate is 57 points. The Bulls have only won once in eight away trips to play the Brumbies, with that win coming in 2007. Only the Bulls (5.5) have averaged fewer off-loads per game than the Brumbies (6.3) in this campaign. The Brumbies have conceded fewer clean breaks (5.3) and metres (350) per game than any other side this season. The Brumbies have scored a competition-high 21 tries when beginning possession in their opponents' 22, and have also conceded a low of six when their opponents start possession in the Brumbies' 22. It will be a cracker, a real arm-wrestle that will be decided in the final 10 minutes. The Brumbies to win, inside one score.
Teams:
Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Robbie Coleman, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Nic White, 8 Ita Vaea, 7 David Pocock, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore (captain), 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 Allan Alaalatoa, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Jordan Smiler, 20 Jarrad Butler, 21 Michael Dowsett, 22 Nigel Ah Wong, 23 James Dargaville.
Bulls: 15 Jurgen Visser, 14 Francois Hougaard, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Burger Odendaal, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Rudy Paige, 8 Pierre Spies (captain), 7 Arno Botha, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Grant Hattingh, 4 Flip van de Merwe, 3 Marcel van der Merwe, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Dean Greyling.
Replacements: 16 Callie Visagie, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Morne Mellett, 19 Jacques du Plessis, 20 Pieter Labuschagne, 21 Jacques Louis Potgieter, 22 Travis Ismaiel, 23 Jesse Kriel.
Referee: Marius van der Westhuizen
Assistant referees: Rohan Hoffmann, Ed Martin
TMO: Ian Smith
Sharks v Rebels
(Kings Park, Durban – Kick-off: 19.10; 17.10 GMT; 03.00, Saturday, May 30 AEST)
The Sharks and Rebels know they are effectively out of the running for places in the play-offs. And playing for pride only in the final round of the competition often means teams tend to throw off the shackles.
However, this seems unlikely as both teams have placed a high premium on victory.
The Rebels currently sit in 10th place on the table and the Sharks in 11th, so indications are that it will be good match up.
The Sharks have conceded the third most points in the competition. However, they have worked hard on improving their defence and do have an abundance of quality players within their squad.
Last week, the Rebels were defeated 31-15 by the Stormers in Cape Town, but produced a tenacious performance.
The Sharks, in contrast, finished their Australasian tour with victory over the Reds in Brisbane.
Having also pushing the Hurricanes and Waratahs to the limit in their previous two matches, the Rebels are expecting a another physical arm-wrestle against a "typical" South African outfit.
"They play very much like the Stormers, through channel one," Rebels coach Tony McGahan said in a teleconference call from the team's base in Durban.
"They have a very good maul and a strong scrum. Being back home they will look to get some more wins.
"No doubt they will go back to what works for them and I am sure they will be nice and direct."
McGahan gave further indication of the simplistic gameplan they are expecting from the Sharks when he said they had focused on their "game management and control" this week.
"We have worked on our kicking game and our high-ball catch," he added.
Sharks flyhalf Lionel Cronje seemed to be singing from the same hymnbook.
He said one of the aspects of their game they have been working on is their defence.
"Our whole focus has changed," Cronje said in an interview on the Sharks website.
"We have tried to put a lot of emphasis on our defence and understanding our roles from rucks into phase defence. The players' understanding is a lot clearer; the guys have really bought into the structures we want to have.
"It's really been successful in the last few weeks -we're not there yet but I think it's been a great improvement."
Previous results:
2014: Sharks won 22-16, Melbourne
2013: Sharks won 64-7, Durban
2011: Sharks won 34-32, Melbourne
Prediction: The Sharks have won 10 of the last 11 games when they have hosted Australian opposition. The Rebels' wait for a win in South Africa continues, they have lost all nine games so far and have conceded at least 30 points in eight of those games. The Rebels have made the most carries per game this season (123), while only the Cheetahs have made fewer than the Sharks (88). The Sharks have kicked from hand a tournament-high 26 times per game while only the Waratahs have kicked less often than the Rebels (17.2). Only the Stormers have conceded more tries in the 20 minutes before half-time than the Sharks (11) while the Rebels have conceded the second most in the 20 minutes after the break (14). The Rebels' winless streak in South Africa looks set to continue, as the Sharks will win by more than 10 points.
Teams:
Sharks: 15 Lwazi Mvovo, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Sibusiso Sithole, 10 Lionel Cronje, 9 Stefan Ungerer, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Willem Alberts/Etienne Oosthuizen, 6 Renaldo Bothma, 5 Marco Wentzel (captain), 4 Mouritz Botha, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis , 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Franco Marais, 17 Matt Stevens, 18 Lourens Adriaanse, 19 Lubabalo Mtyanda, 20 Etienne Oosthuizen/Khaya Majola, 21 Conrad Hoffmann, 22 Fred Zeilinga, 23 Heimar Williams.
Rebels: 15 Mike Harris, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Sefanaia Naivalu, 12 Mitch Inman, 11 Tom English, 10 Jack Debreczeni, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Colby Fainga'a, 6 Sean McMahon, 5 Lopeti Timani, 4 Luke Jones, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Pat Leafa, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 Tom Sexton, 17 Cruze Ah-Nau, 18 Paul Alo-Emile, 19 Cadeyrn Neville, 20 Scott Fuglistaller, 21 Nic Stirzaker, 22 Jordy Reid, 23 Bryce Hegarty.
Referee: Jaco van Heerden
Assistant referees: Rodney Boneparte, Ben Crouse
TMO: Marius Jonker
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
Statistical information provided by Opta Sports
