Preview: S15 Round 17, Part Two
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There is plenty at stake in Round 17 – wildcard spots, home semifinals and pride.
The Bulls were second on the Super Rugby log when they jetted down-under for their tour and they now find themselves ninth on the overall and third in the South African conference.
It is an absolute must-win for the Bulls if they are to have any chance of a play-off game. However, the Rebels side has shown more grit than previous seasons, and they will want to finish their campaign off on a high.
"It is a must-win for us and we owe it to ourselves and our campaign with what we’ve done at home also where we pulled it together," said Bulls coach Frans Ludeke.
The second game on Saturday sees us cross the Tasman Sea to Auckland where the Crusaders look to keep their sniff of finals alive when they take on the Blues. Saders coach Todd Blackadder will not be keen to slip up against a young inexperienced Blues outfit.
Sticking in Oceania, there will be emotions all around Ballymore when the Reds fans bid farewell to Queensland greats Will Genia and James Horwill. The Reds take on the Chiefs and will surely want to give the two legends a winning send-off. It wont be easy as the Chiefs are hungry for a fourth place finish overall.
We then cross continents to Africa when the Cheetahs, governed by new coach Franco Smith, will blood youngsters as they attempt to beat the Waratahs in a new era in Bloemfontein. The Cheetahs have nothing to lose which is always a dangerous mindset. The Waratahs are tied at the top of the Australian conference with the Brumbies, and cannot afford another slip-up like they did against the Lions.
It all then comes down to the game of the weekend, where the Lions will be looking to ride their high all the way to Newlands and back. The South African conference poll position is at stake in this game and it is do or die for the Johannesburg men.
We look at Saturday's matches!
Saturday, June 6
Rebels v Bulls
(AAMI Park, Canberra – Kick-off: 15.30; 07.30 SA time; 05.30 GMT)
It seems like there is only pride at stake in this game.
Although the Bulls will be wanting to claw their way back into a play-off spot. After a dismal start to their Australasian tour, the Pretoria outfit will be all guns-blazing against a deflated Rebels side that suffered two defeats in South Africa.
The Bulls need favours from other teams for their play-off dreams to come true, but they have not lost hope. "That is why we will fight untill the last game to make sure because there is still hope, we need favours, but there is still hope," said Ludeke.
Ludeke's troops will have to do it without the incumbent Springbok flyhalf Handre Pollard who is being rested for the crunch game. Jacques-Louis Potgieter will be keen to answer his critics with a match-winning performance.
For the Rebels there is only pride to play for, however they will be wanting to finish strongly at home in one of their better seasons ever.
Previous results:
2014: Bulls won 40-7, Pretoria
2012: Rebels won 35-41, Melbourne
2011: Bulls won 47-10, Pretoria
Predication: The Bulls have won all three games between the sides, notching up over 40 points in each. There have been 180 points scored in the three meetings between the Rebels and the Bulls. The last time they met in Melbourne 76 points were scored, with 59 coming by half-time. Both the Rebels and Bulls are currently enduring their worst runs of form this year ;three straight defeats apiece. Just three sides have maintained a better lineout success rate than the Bulls (89%) this year, while the Rebels languish last (78%) in this regard. Both these sides have conceded eight tries from the opposition half and 11 between halfway and their own 22. However, the Rebels have conceded almost twice as many (20) as the Bulls (11) when their opponents start out with the ball inside their 22. Just two sides (both five) have conceded fewer tries in the final 20 minutes of matches than the Bulls (six) so far. Not much between the two sides, but the desperate Bulls to take it by seven.
Teams:
Rebels: 15 Mike Harris, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Mitch Inman, 11 Cam Crawford, 10 Jack Debreczeni, 9 Nic Stirzaker, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Colby Fainga’a, 6 Sean McMahon, 5 Lopeti Timani, 4 Luke Jones, 3 Paul Alo-Emile, 2 Pat Leafa, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 Tom Sexton, 17 Cruze Ah-Nau, 18 Tim Metcher, 19 Sam Jeffries, 20 Jordy Reid, 21 Ben Meehan, 22 Bryce Hegarty, 23 Tom English
Bulls: 15 Jesse Kriel, 14 Francois Hougaard, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Burger Odendaal, 11 Travis Ismaiel, 10 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 9 Rudy Paige, 8 Pierre Spies (captain), 7 Jacques du Plessis, 6 Pieter Labuschagne, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Flip van de Merwe, 3 Marcel van der Merwe, 2 Callie Visagie, 1 Dean Greyling.
Replacements: 16 Jaco Visagie, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Werner Kruger, 19 Grant Hattingh, 20 Arno Botha, 21 Tian Schoeman, 22 Bjorn Basson, 23 Jurgen Visser.
Referee: Nick Briant
Assistant referees: James Leckie, Michael Hogan
TMO: Ian Smith
Blues v Crusaders
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)
Sitting eighth the Crusaders still have a mathematical chance of making the finals. Coach Todd Blackadder has made three changes in the forwards, among them the return of Wyatt Crockett.
The Crusaders will have to do it without influential leader Kieran Read who is ruled out with a concussion.
"It is one of those things where we have got great replacements in Luke Whitelock and Jordan Taufua, so we
"We don't need to rush him back either," Crusaders assistant coach Dave Hewett told New Zealand Rugby Heaven.
The Blues, meanwhile, have been hammered by injury and now representative duties due to the Under-20 World Cup. Despite missing so many regular starters, Kirwan has also made the bold call to overlook All Blacks midfielder Francis Saili and Lolagi Visinia. Hamish Northcott starts outside George Moala at centre.
"For us, it's important to give some of the youngsters a crack," Kirwan told 3news.co.nz
"I've got one eye on the future as well. It's forced on us by injury but it's a good chance for guys like Matt Vaega.
"Will Lloyd is going up against one of the best lineouts in the competition, so it's a great opportunity."
"I'm not putting any pressure on them. Obviously our season is finished. They just need to get out there put their hands up."
Recent results:
2015: Crusaders won 29-15, Christchurch
2014: Crusaders 21-13, Christchurch
2014: Blues won 35-24, Auckland
2013: Crusaders won 23-3, Christchurch
2013: Blues won 34-15, Auckland
2012: Crusaders won 59-12, Christchurch
2012: Crusaders won 19-18, Auckland
Prediction: The Crusaders accounted for the Blues’ heaviest ever defeat when they beat the Auckland-based side 59-12 in 2012. Six of the last eight, and nine of the last 12, contests between the sides have been won by men from Christchurch. The Blues won two of four in May but you ’d need to go back to June last year to piece together their previous two victories. The Blues are aiming to win three home games in a row against the Crusaders, a feat they have managed just once in a run that included a home final win against their New Zealand rivals (2001-2003). Two of the last three meetings between these sides have seen the side leading at half-time go on to lose the game. The Crusaders lead the way for tries scored (48) this year, while the Blues sit second last (27) for five-pointers. The Blues have scored the fewest opening quarter tries (two) while the Crusaders have scored the second most in the same timeframe (12). The Crusaders have much more to play fore and they will out-class a rookie Blues team by 20 points.
Teams:
Crusaders: 15 Tom Taylor, 14 Nafi Tuitavake, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 David Havili, 11 Nemani Nadolo, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Mitchell Drummond, 8 Jordan Taufua, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Matt Todd, 5 Dominic Bird, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Alex Hodgman, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Sam Whitelock, 20 Luke Whitelock, 21 Andy Ellis, 22 Ryan Crotty, 23 Kieron Fonotia.
Blues: 15 Matt Vaega, 14 Ben Lam, 13 Hamish Northcott, 12 George Moala, 11 Melani Nanai, 10 Ihaia West, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Airi Hunt, 7 Brendon O’Connor, 6 Joe Edwards, 5 Josh Bekhuis, 4 Will Lloyd, 3 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 2 James Parsons (captain), 1 Sam Prattley.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Nic Mayhew, 18 Sione Mafileo, 19 Hayden Triggs, 20 Chris Vui, 21 Jamison Gibson-Park, 22 Simon Hickey, 23 Matt McGahan.
Referee: Chris Pollock
Assistant referees: Ben O'Keeffe, Jamie Nutbrown
TMO: Ben Skeen
Reds v Chiefs
(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane – Kick-off: 19.40; 21.40 NZ time; 09.40 GMT)
On paper the Chiefs should bank an easy win, however they have had a poor run of late winning one out of the last possible four games, including a 15-16 loss to the Rebels.
Coach Dave Rennie has been boosted by the return of two All Blacks – Brodie Retallick and influential skipper Liam Messam. They will be keen to right the wrongs of the Chiefs recent run and finish off the Reds in Brisbane.
For the Reds, there is more to play for than just pride as they say cheers to two Queensland heroes – James Horwill and Will Genia in their last game at Ballymore. The duo head North post World Cup.
"The best way to honour the guys [Genia and Horwill] is through a good team performance," said Reds coach Richard Graham.
"He [Genia] set a new standard of scrumhalf play, in the way that he ran the ball challenging defenders in the channel two and three area."
Commenting on the Chiefs, Graham is aware of the challenge they pose and their tactics they use.
"We expected [Brodie] Retallick and [Liam] Messam back, either way they a good side."
"They have been the benchmark of Super Rugby over the last three years winning it twice and making the semifinals last year."
"Certainly a challenge, and if you watch their game they surprise you with the way they interpret the laws and some of the tactics they use," explained Graham.
Recent results:
2013: Reds won 31-23, Hamilton
2012: Reds won 42-27, Brisbane
2011: Reds won 19-11, Hamilton
2010: Reds won 23-18, Hamilton
2009: Chiefs won 50-26, Brisbane
2008: Chiefs 32-20, Hamilton
Prediction: The Reds have won four straight against the Chiefs, this run being preceded by four straight losses against the men from Hamilton. Three of those Reds victories have been by more than a converted try. The Queenslanders have won three of their last six matches, it took them twice as long (12 games) to piece together their three previous wins. The Chiefs’ current run of three defeats in four games marks their worst form of the season. The Reds have conceded twice as many last quarter tries (14) than the Chiefs (seven). Super Rugby fixtures between these sides in Queensland have averaged an aggregate score of 56 points; the most recent two games in Brisbane saw an average of 73. As much as Genia deserves a victorious send-off, the Chiefs will be too strong and beat them by 15 points, at least.
Teams:
Reds: 15 James O'Connor, 14 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 13 Karmichael Hunt, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Lachie Turner, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Jake Schatz, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 James Horwill, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 James Hanson, 1 James Slipper (captain).
Replacements: 16 Saia Fainga'a, 17 Pettowa Paraka, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Ed O'Donoghue, 20 Beau Robinson, 21 Hendrik Tui, 22 Nick Frisby, 23 Ben Tapuai, 24 Jake McIntyre.
Chiefs: 15 Tom Marshall, 14 Bryce Heem, 13 Charlie Ngatai, 12 Andrew Horrell, 11 Tim Nanai-Williams, 10 Marty McKenzie, 9 Augustine Pulu, 8 Michael Leitch, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Messam (captain), 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Michael Fitzgerald, 3 Siate Tokolahi, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Mitchell Graham.
Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Pauliasi Manu, 18 Jarrod Firth, 19 Matt Symons, 20 Maama Vaipulu, 21 Brad Weber, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown.
Referee: Mike Fraser
Assistant referees: Rohan Hoffmann, Andrew Lees
TMO: George Ayoub
Cheetahs v Waratahs
(Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein – Kick-off: 15.00; 23.00 AEST; 13.00 GMT)
This game is the mark of a new era for the Cheetahs as Franco Smith takes charge for the first time.
Smith is fielding a side full of talent and youth, however filled with inexperience too.
Smith has tapped into his University (Free-State University) team's talent pool, the side he coached earlier in the year, and is starting two players from that side launching them into Super Rugby – No.8 Niell Jordaan and flyhalf Neil Marais who will make their Super Rugby debuts.Smith wants to establish an attractive brand of rugby at the Cheetahs and his first task is against the Waratahs.
"I think the we need to hold onto the ball a bit better, so that will definitely be one of our objectives," said Smith.
"Our first phases have not been up to standard and we have to work hard at that to give us confidence going forward.
"I think that playing in the right areas of the field is very important and I think the defence has taken on a lot because with the possession and territory stats, they have been on the back foot for most of the season so we will need to get better in both components.
For the Waratahs, Jacques Potgieter is back and his return couldn't come quick enough. The Sydney-men can't afford to slip up against the 13th placed Cheetahs as they are tied on points with the Brumbies in top spot in the Australian conference.
Recent results:
2013: Cheetahs won 27-26, Sydney
2012: Cheetahs won 35-34, Bloemfontein
2011: Cheetahs won 23-3, Sydney
2010: Waratahs won 40-17, Sydney
2009: Waratahs won 18-10, BLoemfontein
2008: Waratahs won 23-19, Sydney
Prediction: The Cheetahs have won three in a row against the 2014 champions, the last two victories in this run coming by a single point each. The previous three meetings were won by the Waratahs. The Cheetahs have won just two of their last 12 matches. The 'Tahs have not been defeated twice in a row since May 2013. The Cheetahs have averaged the fewest defenders beaten (12.8) this season while the 'Tahs have averaged the second most (22.4). The Cheetahs are the only side yet to score a try from a scrum this season. It will be a walk-over as the defending champions' – Waratahs will teach a youthful Cheetahs team a lesson with a 30 point drumming.
Teams:
Cheetahs: 15 Coenie van Wyk, 14 Sergeal Petersen, 13 Francois Venter, 12 Ryno Benjamin, 11 Cornal Hendricks, 10 Niel Marais, 9 Sarel Pretorius, 8 Niell Jordaan, 7 Tienie Burger, 6 Johannes Prinsloo, 5 Francois Uys (captain), 4 Carl Wegner, 3 Nicolaas van Dyk, 2 Torsten van Jaarsveld, 1 Burrie Uys.
Replacements: 16 Elandré Huggett, 17 Danie Mienie, 18 Ewald van der Westhuizen, 19 Steven Sykes, 20 Gerhard Olivier, 21 Henco Venter, 22 Shaun Venter, 23 Willie Le Roux.
Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Taqele Naiyaravoro, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Matt Carraro, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Jacques Potgieter, 5 David Dennis (captain), 4 Mitchell Chapman, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Hugh Roach, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements – from: David Porecki, Jeremy Tilse, Paddy Ryan, Dean Mum, Stephen Hoiles, Pat McCutcheon, Brendan McKibbin, Peter Betham, Jack Dempsey, Jono Lance.
Referee: Glen Jackson
Assistant referees: Jaco van Heerden, Lourens van der Merwe
TMO: Johan Greeff
Stormers v Lions
(Cape Town – Kick-off: 17.10; 15.10 GMT)
For the Lions, it all boils down to this crunch game against the Stormers.
If they pull off a win, they will need more than a favour or two from other teams to either top the Conference or claim a play-off spot.
Lions coach Johan Ackermann has named an unchanged starting XV barring one forced change with Alwyn Hollenbach coming in for the injured Lionel Mapoe.
Ackermann's men will be brimming with confidence after they tripped up the defending champions with a win last weekend.
Stormers coach Allister Coetzee will be looking to tie up the South African conference but knows it is never easy against the Lions.
"It is their last game in the competition, so there is no extra game after that and they are three points behind us so they need a bonus-point victory to keep them in the hunt," explained Coetzee.
"But for us it is just another Super Rugby game. It has got nothing to do with the first game, it is about improving on our last game against the Cheetahs and ensure that our processes stay in place.
"We had a great line-out and scrummaging performance against the Cheetahs and we were fantastic defensively, but we will be tested again by the Lions this week.
"They attack you wide, they ask questions from mauls and they also have a good scrum so they are really a good team.
"We have played enough against the Lions, we never won easily at Ellis Park, but the big thing is that we won there.
Recent results: 
2015: Stormers won 22-19, Johannesburg
2014: Stormers won 18-3, Cape Town
2014: Lions won 34-10, Johannesburg
2012: Stormers won 27-17, Cape Town
2011: Stormers won 33-19, Johannesburg
2011: Stormers won 19-16, Cape Town
Prediction: The Stormers’ record victory both in terms of margin and points scored came against the Lions in 2009; a 56-18 win. The Stormers have won 11 of 12 against their conference neighbours, though their defeat in this run came last year. The Lions have won eight of their last 10 while the Stormers have won six of their last seven. The last five fixtures between these sides have all seen fewer than 45 points scored on aggregate, and an average of 39 points per game. The Stormers (eight) and Lions (nine) are two of just three sides to average less than 10 penalties conceded this year. When it comes to tries scored from set-pieces (lineouts and scrums) with the feed, only the Bulls (14) and Lions (14)rank behind the Stormers (16). With the Lions in search of a bonus point it will be a high-scoring affair, but the Stormers will take it narrowly by five.
Teams:
Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Harold Vorster, 12 Alwyn Hollenbach, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Francois de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Warwick Tecklenburg, 6 Jaco Kriel, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Martin Muller, 3 Julian Redelinghuys, 2 Armand van der Merwe, 1 Schalk van der Merwe.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Corne Fourie, 18 Ruan Dreyer, 19 Robert Kruger, 20 Albertus Smith, 21 Dillon Smit, 22 Marnitz Boshoff, 23 Howard Mnisi.
Stormers: 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Dillyn Leyds, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Seabelo Senatla, 10 Demetri Catrakilis, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Duane Vermeulen (captain), 7 Siya Kolisi, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Manuel Carizza, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Michael Willemse, 17 Oliver Kebble, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 Nizaam Carr, 21 Louis Schreuder, 22 Kurt Coleman, 23 Jaco Taute.
Referee: Stuart Berry (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa), Quinton Immelman (South Africa)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)
Compiled by Andrew Duncan
@andrewslamdunc
@rugby365com
Statistical information provided Opta Sports
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