Preview: S15 Round Six, Part One
The Hurricanes head south, across the Cook Strait, determined to maintain their unbeaten start – as the Super Rugby season heads into Week Six.
Awaiting for the tournament's only remaining unbeaten side is a Highlanders team that has lost just once and is in fifth place on the standings – just four points behind the second-placed Hurricanes.
The other Friday match is a stark contrast – both the Rebels and Lions sitting outside the top 10 on the standings, after underwhelming starts to the season.
An intriguing statistic is that neither side has won at home this season – the Rebels beating the Crusaders (in Week One) and Western Force (last week) in away games, while the Lions' solitary victory came against the Blues in Albany in Week Four.
We look at Friday's matches!
Friday, March 20
Highlanders v Hurricanes
(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – Kick-off: 19.35; 08.35 GMT)
The Hurricanes will face a Highlanders team that hit its straps against the defending champion Waratahs last Saturday, but has been riddled with injuries.
Not that the Hurricanes have escaped the injury bogey – having lost All Black hooker Dane Coles due to a hyperextension-injury of the elbow, which has not recovered in time.
The Highlanders paid a dear price for their heroics against the defending champion Waratahs last week.
Not only are they without their three most highly-rated props – Ma'afu Fia (out for the season with ruptured knee ligaments), Kane Hames (on a five-week suspension) and Ross Geldenhuys (fractured thumb) – but Shane Christie remains sidelined after re-injuring his hamstring and John Hardie is sidelined with a dislocated ankle.
Despite the enormous injury count, Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph remained upbeat.
"The energy is very high, and I'd measure that by the willingness the players have to learn, do their homework, give feedback and help each other," Joseph told The Southland Times.
"It's not about how much physicality they show at training, but how much due diligence on the game, and reinforcing what we need to do.
"Those are good signs and I guess the key now is that we execute in the match."
Both the Hurricanes and Highlanders have been exciting and showed the ability to capitalise on turnovers and the pressure created closer to the ruck.
Hurricanes left wing Julian Savea crossed for his third and fourth tries of the year against the Blues last week, while the Highlanders' back three Patrick Osborne, Waisake Naholo and Ben Smith all scored tries against the Waratahs.
History suggests the Hurricanes and Highlanders rivalry is one of the closest derbies in Super Rugby.
Joseph said the Hurricanes represented the Highlanders' biggest challenge so far.
"They're unbeaten, almost injury-free and at full-strength,"the Highlanders coach told The Otago Daily Times.
"They're now a very structured and organised team and Ma'a [Nonu] is playing his best Super rugby for some seasons. There are a lot of in-form All Blacks and they are a much-improved team."
Recent results:
2014: Highlanders won 18-16, Wellington
2014: Highlanders won 35-31, Dunedin
2013: Highlanders won 49-44, Wellington
2013: Hurricanes won 23-19, Dunedin
2012: Hurricanes won 26-20, Dunedin
2012: Highlanders won 19-17, Wellington
Prediction: The last five Highlanders games have been settled by seven points or fewer, with the Dunedin side winning the last three. Before this run of five games, the Highlanders had suffered consecutive defeats by over 25 points. The Hurricanes have won their opening four games for the first time in Super Rugby; the Wellington-based team is aiming to win five in a row for the first time since 2003 when they won seven on the bounce. The Highlanders have the best line-out success rate this season (91 percent), however they have thrown fewer line-outs than any other team so far this season (34). The Dunedin-based side has spent less time in possession than any other team this season, averaging just 12 minutes and 54 seconds on the ball per game. The 'Canes have the best tackling success rate this season (90 percent) and have completed more tackles on average than any other team so far in Super Rugby. The Wellington side also boasts the joint-best scrum success rate this season, winning 94 percent on their own put-in so far. All those injuries may prevent the Highlanders from ending the Hurricanes' victory run. We think the Hurricanes should take a thriller by less than 10 points.
Teams:
Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (co-captain), 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Shaun Treeby, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu (co-captain), 7 Dan Pryor, 6 Elliot Dixon, 5 Joe Wheeler, 4 Tom Franklin, 3 Josh Hohneck, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Brendon Edmonds.
Replacements: 16 Ash Dixon, 17 Daniel Leniert-Brown, 18 Pingi Tala'apitaga, 19 Mark Reddish, 20 Gareth Evans, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Marty Banks, 23 Jason Emery.
Hurricanes: 15 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith (captain), 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Brad Shields, 5 Blade Thomson, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Motu Matu'u, 1 Reggie Goodes.
Replacements: 16 Brayden Mitchell, 17 Ben May, 18 Chris Eves, 19 Mark Abbott, 20 Callum Gibbins, 21 Chris Smylie, 22 Rey Lee-Lo, 23 James Marshall.
Referee: Ben O'Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Glen Jackson (New Zealand), Paul Williams (New Zealand)
TMO: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
Rebels v Lions
(AAMI Park, Melbourne – Kick-off: 19.40; 10.40 SA time; 08.40 GMT)
The Lions will make their first-ever Super Rugby appearance in Melbourne, with the only two previous clashes between these sides occurring at the famed Ellis Park in Johannesburg.
On both of those occasions it was the Lions who were victorious – recording a 37-32 victory in 2012, before triumphing 34-17 in July last year.
The Rebels have showed the more impressive form this season – with two wins in four starts, including beating the Crusaders in Week One and the Western Force last week.
Ironically both those were away wins, with both the Rebels' defeats having been at home.
The men from Johannesburg came up against a rampant Crusaders outfit last week, going down 6-34 – that after recording only their second victory on New Zealand soil the week before, when they edged the Blues.
That was also their only win of the season.
The Lions team shows 12 changes from last week, but most importantly features three flyhalves.
Jaco van der Walt will start at fullback, with Springbok Elton Jantjies, who played at No.10 the last two weeks, starting at inside centre and fellow Bok Marnitz Boshoff at flyhalf.
Lions coach Johan Ackermann said the Rebels are a vastly different side this year from the one his team beat last year.
"The major difference from Rebels teams in the past is that they always had a number of imports from abroad," the Lions mentor said, adding: "Now they are an Australian side that plays more for each other and there's more unity.
"They have already beaten the Crusaders and Western Force.
"In our analysis we realised they are playing outstanding rugby and were in the contest in all their matches and they never give up – they push you for 80 minutes.
"We will have to be on top of our game to get a result [win]."
Ackermann said they have identified one or two things in the Rebels' defence that hopefully the Lions can exploit, but it comes down to the fact that they must be more direct.
Previous results:
2014: Lions won 34-17, Johannesburg
2012: Lions won 37-32, Johannesburg
Prediction: The Rebels have lost their last six at home in Super Rugby, with their last three wins all coming away from home (they last won in Melbourne in Round 10 last year). The Lions, however, have lost eight of their last nine trips to Australia, with those eight defeats coming at an average margin of 24 points. The Rebels have never lost seven in a row at home. The Melbourne-based side has the worst line-out success rate this season (78 percent). However, they have won the most scrums on average this season (8.8) and only two teams have a better scrum success rate than them (92 percent). The Lions have missed fewer tackles on average this season than any team in Super Rugby (12.8) and only the Hurricanes (90 percent) can boast a better tackle success rate in 2015 than them (89 percent). Lions back row forward Warren Whiteley has made the most tackles in the competition this season (68 from 69 attempts). The Johannesburg-based outfit has averaged less than a try per game this season (0.6); the worst record of any team so far in 2015. This is a tough one to call, as it mostly depends on the mindset of the two teams – both have been blowing hot and cold. In instances like this it is not a bad bet to go with the home team – the Rebels by less than 10 points.
Teams:
Rebels: 15 Jonah Placid, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Mitch Inman, 11 Tom English, 10 Mike Harris, 9 Nic Stirzaker, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Sean McMahon, 5 Lopeti Timani, 4 Luke Jones, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Pat Leafa, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 Tom Sexton, 17 Cruze Ah-Nau, 18 Paul Alo-Emile, 19 Steve Cummins, 20 Colby Fainga'a, 21 Luke Burgess, 22 Bryce Hegarty, 23 Sefanaia Naivalu.
Lions: 15 Jaco van der Walt, 14 Sampie Mastriet, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Elton Jantjies, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Marnitz Boshoff, 9 Francois de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Warwick Tecklenburg, 6 Derick Minnie, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Robert Kruger, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Armand van der Merwe, 1 Schalk van der Merwe.
Replacements: 16 Robbie Coetzee, 17 Corne Fourie, 18 Julian Redelinghuys, 19 Andries Ferreira, 20 Jaco Kriel, 21 Ross Cronje, 22 Harold Vorster, 23 Andries Coetzee.
Referee: Mike Fraser
Assistant referees: Rohan Hoffmann, Will Houston.
TMO: James Leckie
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
Statistical information provided by Opta Sports
