PREVIEW: Super Rugby, Round 17 - Part One
AUSSIE DECIDER: The competition – resuming after the June international break – start of with a couple of delectable Friday matches.
The opening fixture of the weekend is more about lost pride and sad farewells – when the Blues host the Reds in Auckland.
However, the is the second match of the day that will provide the real fireworks.
Just one point separate the Waratahs (35 points) and the Rebels (34) in the race for the Australian conference.
Finishing first in your conference brings an automatic top three finish and home ground advantage if the first round of the play-offs.
It would be stating the obvious to suggest it will be a cracker – a rare occasion when it will be worth watching an Aussie derby.
Tie-breakers (if teams are tied on competition points):
a) Most wins from all matches
b) Greatest points-difference
c) Most tries from all matches
d) Greatest tries-difference
e) Coin toss
We take a look at Friday’s matches!
Friday, June 29:
Blues v Reds
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 19.35; 17.35 AEST; 07.35 GMT)
Blues fans will be heading to Eden Park for their last home match of the season and will be seeking to send out a franchise legend in style.
Loose forward Jerome Kaino will play his last match at the Garden of Eden, it will be his 137th appearance for the franchise, equalling Tony Woodcock’s record as the second most capped Blues player, behind Keven Mealamu.
The only New Zealand player to have more Super Rugby appearances than Mealamu is the Crusaders’ Wyatt Crockett, who is set to play his 200th match for the Crusaders before the season is out.
Crockett is the most capped Super Rugby player in the history of the competition.
“This is an important occasion for our franchise and for this team,” coach Tana Umaga said.
“Jerome has been a magnificent contributor to the Blues and the All Blacks both on and off the field, and much of that success has been on Eden Park,” Umaga added.
“There is no better way for our team to honour Jerome than to produce a performance of real quality, consistency and direction.
“Our season to date has been disappointing, but we see these final three games as important for us to transfer that hard work that we see on the training field into performance on it.”
With some of their Wallabies back after the June break, Reds coach Brad Thorn believes they have a good chance to finish the season with a victory run.
“The guys are excited to be back in Super Rugby mode,” Thorn said.
“Queensland hasn’t won at Eden Park since 2012, so there are a great challenge and opportunity in front of us to show what progress we’ve made this season.
“We’ve been hit with some injuries during the June Test window through Wallabies and domestic rugby, but we’ve been giving players opportunities all year to ensure we can deal with setbacks when they occur.
“It’s disappointing to lose those guys to injury, but it presents opportunities to other players.
“The Blues are a dangerous team.
“They’re big, athletic and have plenty of strike power. It’s tough to win at Eden Park, so we’ll need head there ready for anything.”
Recent results:
2017: Blues won 34-29, Apia
2016: Blues and Reds drew 25-all, Brisbane
2014: Blues won 44-14, Auckland
2013: Reds won 12-11, Brisbane
2012: Reds won 23-11, Auckland
Prediction: The Blues are undefeated in their last three games against the Reds; the last and only time they went longer without loss against them was a four-game win streak from 2005 to 2008. The Reds have won just two of their previous 10 games away from home against the Blues, with the most recent victory in such a fixture coming back in 2012. The Auckland side succumbed to a 20-10 defeat to the Rebels in their most recent game against Australian opposition, after having previously been undefeated in 11 consecutive games against them. The Blues have made 121 carries per game this season, more than any other side in the competition; however, they’ve gained just the fifth most metres per game of any team (435 metres). The Reds’ Samu Kerevi has made 146 carries this season, the third most of any player and the second most of any back behind the Stormers’ Damian de Allende (152). The Reds do have a chance, slim as it may be. However, our money is on the Blues to win by 15 points.
Teams:
Blues: 15 Matt Duffie, 14 Melani Nanai, 13 Michael Collins, 12 Rieko Ioane, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Stephen Perofeta, 9 Augustine Pulu (captain) or Sam Nock, 8 Akira Ioane, 7 Blake Gibson, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Matiaha Martin, 4 Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, 3 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 2 James Parsons, 1 Alex Hodgman
Replacements: 16 Matt Moulds/Leni Apisai, 17 Pauliasi Manu, 18 Sione Mafileo, 19 Jacob Pierce, 20 Murphy Taramai, 21 Jonathan Ruru, 22 Bryn Gatland, 23 Thomas Faiane/Tumua Manu.
Reds: 15 Jono Lance, 14 Jordan Petaia, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Duncan Paia’aua, 11 Eto Nabuli, 10 Hamish Stewart, 9 Moses Sorovi, 8 Scott Higginbotham (Captain), 7 George Smith, 6 Lukhan Tui, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Harry Hockings, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 JP Smith.
Replacements: 16 Alex Mafi, 17 Harry Hoopert, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Caleb Timu, 20 Angus Scott-Young, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Aidan Toua, 23 Filipo Daugunu.
Referee: Egon Seconds (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Rasta Rasivhenge (South Africa), Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
Rebels v Waratahs
(AAMI Park, Melbourne – Kick-off: 19.45; 09.45 GMT)
The Rebels are on the brink of reaching the Super Rugby play-offs for the first time, but this encounter will be decisive in their conquest.
With just three rounds remaining, this game may well be a conference ‘Final’.
The opportunity to play in one of the biggest games of the season, has Rebels fullback Dane Haylett-Petty and the entire Rebels team excited.
The driving force, no doubt, is the prospect of making play-offs for the first.
Both teams will be without key players – the Rebels will be without captain Adam Coleman (suffering from an adductor strain) and the Waratahs without their captain Michael Hooper (hamstring injury).
The Waratahs are also still waiting the outcome of an appeal against the one-match ban slapped on star utility Israel Folau – for the two foul play yellow cards he received in the third Test against Ireland.
“Sometimes with big games you kind of feel the tension in the group,” Haylett-Petty said.
“But I feel like the group’s pretty relaxed.
“They’ve been working hard over the last couple weeks and we had good session Wednesday.
“I think the boys always enjoy playing the Waratahs, more than most teams.
“Everyone’s more excited than anything.”
The Waratahs’ Wallaby contingent, much like those from the Rebels, have had very little time to digest the disappointment of the series loss to Ireland.
Stand-in Waratahs captain Bernard Foley admitted it was “pretty tough” to refocus.
“To be honest, the start of this week I’ve been pretty flat, so speaking to [coach] Daryl [Gibson], it’s a really good honour and something to refocus coming back in here to this environment,” Foley said.
“Just being around the squad, they’re so excited to be back together as a full squad and to have a game Friday, it’s no easy way to refocus.”
Recent results:
2018: Waratahs won 51-27, Sydney
2017: Waratahs won 50-23, Sydney
2017: Waratahs won 32-25, Melbourne
2016: Rebels won 21-17, Sydney
2015: Waratahs won 18-16, Sydney
2015: Waratahs won 38-28, Melbourne
Prediction: The Waratahs have won 12 of their previous 14 games against the Rebels, posting 50+ points in each of their last two meetings. Victory for the Rebels in this match would mark their fourth win on the bounce, setting a new record for the club in Super Rugby for most consecutive wins. The Waratahs have won 12 of their last 13 away games against their current conference members, posting 50+ points in each of their last two such fixtures. New South Wales have gained 493 metres per game this campaign, more than any other team in the competition. Kurtley Beale has won 12 turnovers this season, only one back has won more so far this season (Waisake Naholo – 13). There is something different about the Rebels this year. Yes, they have the coach and a rush of players from last year’s Western Force team. However, they also have an edge that could help them beat the Waratahs – by seven points.
Teams:
Rebels: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Jack Maddocks, 13 Tom English (captain), 12 Billy Meakes, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Reece Hodge, 9 Michael Ruru, 8 Amanaki Mafi, 7 Colby Fainga’a, 6 Angus Cottrell, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Matt Philip, 3 Sam Talakai, 2 Anaru Rangi, 1 Ben Daley.
Replacements: 16 Nathan Charles, 17 Fereti Sa’aga, 18 Jermaine Ainsley, 19 Ross Haylett-Petty, 20 Lopeti Timani, 21 Harrison Goddard, 22 Jack Debreczeni, 23 Sefa Naivalu
Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Cam Clark, 13 Curtis Rona, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Taqele Naiyaravoro, 10 Bernard Foley (Captain), 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Will Miller, 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Jed Holloway, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Damien Fitzpatrick, 1 Tom Robertson.
Replacements: 16 Tolu Latu, 17 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 18 Paddy Ryan, 19 Tom Staniforth, 20 Brad Wilkin, 21 Jake Gordon, 22 Bryce Hegarty, 23 Alex Newsome.
Referee: Nicholas Berry (Australia)
Assistant referees: Graham Cooper (Australia), Jordan Way (Australia)
TMO: Damien Mitchelmore (Australia)
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@king365ed
@rugby365com
* Statistics provided by Opta Sports
