PREVIEW: Super Rugby, Round 19 - Part Two
NOWHERE TO HIDE: Call it a last chance saloon, but some teams in Saturday’s matches face near impossible tasks to realise their slim play-off hopes.
The Sharks are in the most desperate position.
They need to beat the Jaguares and hope the Rebels lose, without a bonus point, to make the play-offs. They can’t finish higher than eighth.
This, of course, would result in a trip to Christchurch and an encounter with the Crusaders next week.
The Rebels must win, the avoid leaving the back door open for the Sharks to slip into the play-offs.
The Lions must win to avoid the Jaguares overtaking them at the top of the South African conference.
Quarterfinals based on current standings:
* The Crusaders would take on the Rebels in Christchurch.
* The Chiefs would head back to Wellington to take on the Hurricanes again.
* The Waratahs would entertain the Jaguares in Sydney.
* The Lions would host the Highlanders in Johannesburg.
Tiebreakers:
a) Most wins from all matches
b) Greatest points-difference
c) Most tries from all matches
d) Greatest tries-difference
e) Coin toss
We take a look at Saturday’s matches!
Saturday, July 14:
Highlanders v Rebels
(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – Kick-off: 17.15; 15.15 AEST; 05.15 GMT)
Rebels coach David Wessels wants his team to ‘get out the blocks quickly’ and run the equivalent of a sub-10 second 100 metres.
The Melbourne-based outfit is looking to claim their first-ever Super Rugby play-off berth in this weekend’s final round.
Despite back-to-back losses, the Rebels can still finish as high as sixth on the table, pending results in the last round of home and away games.
The Rebels, who are yet to reach the play-offs, after eight seasons of playing in Super Rugby, could also finish seventh or eighth and play a first-ever Final in Sydney, Johannesburg, Buenos Aires or even Christchurch.
Ahead of Saturday’s make-or-break match against the Highlanders in Dunedin – a team the Rebels haven’t beaten since 2013 – Wessels was upbeat.
“I think we can beat them for sure,” the Rebels coach said.
“We’ve got to run our equivalent of our 9.9 second 100-metre sprint, and if we can do that we are in with a real shout.
“We’ve still got out destiny in our own hands which is a great place to be going in to the last round.
“We have to take advantage of that now.”
The Highlanders, in contrast, are banking on their defence against the Rebels.
Inside centre Tei Walden said defence was a big focus for the side this week.
“Some of the tries we scored [against the Crusaders last week] were very promising,” he told superrugby.co.nz.
“There were a few defensive things we were happy with. We talked about being aggressive in the right channels and seeing the likes of Liam Squire out there dominating was quite good.
“We just need the rest to follow now,” he said.
Recent results:
2017: Highlanders won 51-12, Dunedin
2016: Highlanders won 27-3, Melbourne
2014: Highlanders won 33-30, Dunedin
2013: Rebels won 38-37, Melbourne
2012: Highlanders won 43-12, Dunedin
Prediction: The Highlanders have won five of their previous six games against the Rebels, including their last three on the bounce and a fixture-record 39-point win in their last meeting. The Highlanders are undefeated on home turf against the Rebels from three attempts, with 10 of their 16 tries in that time coming in the second stanza of games. The Highlanders have lost their last two games on the spin (both 45-22); the last time they went longer without a win in a campaign was a three-game drought to see out 2014. The Highlanders have won their last nine games on the bounce when hosting teams from Australia, last losing such a fixture in Round 5, 2014 against the Force (31-29). The Rebels will be searching for back-to-back wins in New Zealand for the first time in Super Rugby after notching up a 20-10 win over the Blues in Round 16. The Rebels can beat the Highlanders – and they have done so once before. However, the Highlanders have too much class and should win by 15 points.
Teams:
Highlanders: 15 Josh Ioane, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Thomas Umaga-Jensen, 12 Tei Walden, 11 Tevita Li, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Kayne Hammington, 8 Liam Squire, 7 James Lentjes (captain), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Jackson Hemopo, 4 Alex Ainley, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Aki Seuili.
Replacements: 16 Greg Pleasants-Tate, 17 Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18 Kalolo Tuiloma, 19 Tom Franklin, 20 Dillon Hunt, 21 Josh Renton, 22 Matt Faddes, 23 Josh McKay.
Melbourne Rebels: 15 Jack Maddocks, 14 Sefa Naivalu, 13 Tom English (captain), 12 Billy Meakes, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Reece Hodge, 9 Michael Ruru, 8 Amanaki Mafi, 7 Colby Fainga’a, 6 Angus Cottrell, 5 Ross Haylett-Petty, 4 Matt Philip, 3 Sam Talakai, 2 Anaru Rangi, 1 Fereti Sa’aga.
Replacements: 16 Nathan Charles, 17 Tetera Faulkner, 18 Jermaine Ainsley, 19 Sam Jeffries, 20 Richard Hardwick, 21 Harrison Goddard, 22 Jack Debreczeni, 23 Lopeti Timani.
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Paul Williams (New Zealand), Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
Crusaders v Blues
(AMI Stadium, Christchurch – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)
Crusaders coach Scott Robertson has given the defending champions extra motivation for their final regular-season match against the Blues, even though they have already secured top spot on the ladder.
The 1998 Crusaders squad – featuring Robertson – that won the title, is holding a reunion in Christchurch this weekend and the coach does not want to front his old teammates after a loss.
“They started a pretty amazing dynasty and it’s our job to add to it,” Robertson said.
The Crusaders are red-hot favourites to not only down the Blues but also add a ninth title to their bulging trophy cabinet.
They are on an 11-match winning streak had have not lost at home for 16 games.
Throw in the fact that the Aucklanders have not won in Christchurch since 2004 and Tana Umaga’s men clearly have their work cut out.
However, the Blues have some sentimental motivation of their own.
The Blues will aim to give long-serving star Jerome Kaino a fitting send-off in his final game for the franchise.
“This game means a lot. We want to send Jerome off in the best possible fashion,” coach Tana Umaga said.
“We are going into a cauldron in Christchurch, but we have to go with eyes wide open and also take confidence from the game last week.
“We’ve worked on the areas that were pretty obvious in terms of our defence but there will be no lack of motivation to play against the Crusaders.
“Our forward effort was good last week but we know it needs to go another notch and I think some of the play by our backs, that in tough times they started to find their confidence.
“For us we have to do well on both sides of the ball. We had some individual lapses in defence and that’s something we’ve worked on.
“We need to stick to what we train. We need to be consistent in the execution of our plans and finish off opportunities when we create them. They are a quality side and have been for a long time but we are excited to get out there and do our best for us and for Jerome.”
Recent results:
2018: Crusaders won 32-24, Auckland
2017: Crusaders won 33-24, Christchurch
2016: Crusaders won 26-21, Auckland
2016: Crusaders won 28-13, Christchurch
2015: Crusaders won 34-11, Auckland
2015: Crusaders won 29-15, Christchurch
Prediction: The Crusaders have won their last seven games on the bounce against the Blues, a streak more than twice as long as any other by either team in the history of this fixture. The Blues haven’t won an away game against the Crusaders since 2004, losing 10 such fixtures in succession since that game. The Crusaders have won their last 16 home games in succession, trailing at half-time only twice in that time. The Crusaders have scored 20+ points in the opening half of three of their last four New Zealand derbies, going on to win each of those four games. The Blues have won only one of their last 29 games against fellow New Zealand opposition, and are winless in their last 18 such fixtures. The Blues will give the Crusaders a run for their money, but the men from Christchurch will win by 12 points.
Teams:
Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Seta Tamanivalu, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 George Bridge, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Mitchell Drummond, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Matt Todd, 6 Jordan Taufua, 5 Samuel Whitelock (captain), 4 Quinten Strange, 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Andrew Makalio, 1 Tim Perry.
Replacements: 16 Sam Anderson-Heather, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Donald Brighouse, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Pete Samu, 21 Bryn Hall, 22 Mitchell Hunt, 23 Manasa Mataele.
Blues: 15 Matt Duffie, 14 Melani Nanai, 13 Michael Collins, 12 Rieko Ioane, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Stephen Perofeta, 9 Augustine Pulu (captain), 8 Akira Ioane, 7 Blake Gibson, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ben Nee-Nee, 4 Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, 3 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 2 Matt Moulds, 1 Alex Hodgman.
Replacements: 16 Ross Wright, 17 Pauliasi Manu, 18 Sione Mafileo, 19 Jacob Pierce, 20 Murphy Taramai, 21 Sam Nock, 22 Bryn Gatland, 23 Tamati Tua.
Referee: Federico Anselmi (Argentina)
Assistant referees: Jamie Nutbrown (New Zealand), Mike Fraser (New Zealand)
TMO: Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
Waratahs v Brumbies
(Allianz Stadium, Sydney – Kick-off: 19.45; 09.45 GMT)
The Waratahs may have wrapped up the Australian conference, but they face a massive test against the Brumbies in Sydney.
The Brumbies have been one of the form teams of the last few rounds and were unlucky not snatch a late victory from the Chiefs last week.
The Waratahs, already guaranteed a home quarterfinal, are chasing a season clean sweep of victories against Australian opposition for the first time since 2010.
Ahead of their final regular-season match against the Brumbies, there is still plenty of motivation for the Australian conference champions.
The Tahs have two wins against the Rebels and Reds this year, to go with a victory over the Brumbies in Canberra.
“There’s the opportunity that this game is the last game we play against Australian conference rivals and so far this year we’ve got an unblemished record,” Waratahs assistant coach Chris Malone said.
“We want to maintain that.
“The reality is you want to win games at this time of year.
“You want to go into the quarterfinal on the back of a win against a good, tough side.
“Second spot on the ladder is at stake so there is plenty for is to play for.”
Recent results:
2018: Waratahs won 24-17, Canberra
2017: Brumbies won 28-12, Sydney
2016: Brumbies won 26-20, Sydney
2016: Brumbies won 32-15, Canberra
2015: Waratahs won 13-10, Canberra
2015: Waratahs won 28-13, Sydney
Prediction: The Waratahs earned a 24-17 win in their most recent encounter with the Brumbies, snapping a three-game losing streak against them. The Waratahs have won eight of their last nine Australian derbies, including their last five on the bounce across which they’ve scored 50-plus points in a game on two occasions. The Brumbies have lost their last four national derbies away from home; however, just one of those four games saw either squad scored 20-plus points. The Waratahs have scored 108 points since Super Rugby returned from the international break, 28 more than any other team and 65 more than the Brumbies. The Brumbies’ David Pocock has won 19 turnovers this campaign from just nine appearances, only Kwagga Smith of the Lions (21 in 14 games) has won more. The Brumbies, with an in-form David Pocock, have a realistic chance of a win. The smart money is on the Waratahs to edge it by five points.
Teams:
Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Cameron Clark, 13 Curtis Rona, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Taqele Naiyaravoro, 10 Bernard Foley (captain), 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Will Miller, 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Jed Holloway, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Damien Fitzpatrick, 1 Tom Robertson.
Replacements: 16 Tolu Latu, 17 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 18 Paddy Ryan, 19 Tom Staniforth, 20 Brad Wilkin, 21 Jake Gordon, 22 Alex Newsome, 23 Bryce Hegarty.
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Kyle Godwin, 11 Andrew Muirhead, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 David Pocock, 6 Blake Enever, 5 Richie Arnold, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Connal Mcinerney, 17 Nic Mayhew, 18 Leslie Leuluaialii-Makin, 19 Sam Carter, 20 Lachlan Mccaffrey, 21 Matt Lucas, 22 Wharenui Hawera, 23 Lausii Taliauli.
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant referees: Will Houston (Australia), James Leckie (Australia)
TMO: Chris Hart (Australia)
Lions v Bulls
(Ellis Park, Johannesburg – Kick-off: 15.00; 13.00 GMT)
The Lions tackle the Bulls with the knowledge that victory will secure them the South African Conference and home ground advantage in next week’s quarterfinals.
Lions captain Warren Whiteley played down the importance of a win, at least in public, but securing at least four points (for a win) carry with it far greater significance that he is willing to admit.
They would not want to travel in next week’s play-offs.
Whiteley said he and his team are looking forward to playing in front of the Johannesburg faithful.
“We are excited, because it’s been a while since we played here due to the international break and our bye last week,” Whiteley said.
“We don’t focus too much on the permutations, because we know the Bulls will come hard at us.
“It’s a local derby, and we have to be prepared for that.”
Bulls coach John Mitchell challenged his squad to deliver one more good performance.
“I asked the team for an extraordinary performance to close the season out,” the New Zealander said.
“The other option is to just settle for an easy way to end the season, but that is not who we are as a team.
Bulls captain Rudolph Snyman also urged on his teammates to end the season well.
“One can expect the Lions to come out firing, as they have everything to play for,” Snyman said.
“This will be a massive contest, a typical South African derby if you like.
“This gives us a proper opportunity to show what we stand for as a team one more time.”
Recent results:
2018: Lions won 49-35, Pretoria
2017: Lions won 51-14, Johannesburg
2016: Lions won 56-20, Pretoria
2015: Bulls won 35-33, Pretoria
2015: Lions won 22-18, Johannesburg
Prediction: The Lions have won five of their last six games against the Bulls, including their last three on the bounce. They had never previously won against them as the Lions. The Lions have led at half-time in each of their seven games on home turf this season, going on to win on five occasions in that time. The Bulls have won three of their last four South African derbies, including a 39-33 win in their most recent such fixture against the Sharks in Round 13. The Lions have won 8.4 turnovers per game this season, more than any other team in the competition. Handre Pollard (206) is one of just two players (Elton Jantjies 231) to have made more than 200 kicks from hand in this campaign. It might be a lot closer than most suggest, but the Lions should win by nine points.
Teams:
Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Nicholas Groom, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Cyle Brink, 6 Albertus Smith, 5 Francois Mostert, 4 Marvin Orie, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Jacques van Rooyen.
Replacements: 16 Corne Fourie, 17 Johannes Jonker, 18 Jacobie Adriaanse, 19 Lourens Erasmus, 20 Marnus Schoeman/Hacjivah Dayimani, 21 Ross Cronje, 22 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 23 Howard Mnisi/Shaun Reynolds.
Bulls: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Travis Ismaiel, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Johnny Kotze, 11 Jamba Ulengo, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Ivan van Zyl, 8 Hanro Liebenberg , 7 Thembelani Bholi, 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Rudolph Snyman (Captain), 4 Jannes Kirsten, 3 Conraad van Vuuren, 2 Jaco Visagie, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Johan Grobbelaar, 17 Matthys Basson, 18 Mornay Smit, 19 Ruan Nortje, 20 Nick de Jager, 21 Embrose Papier, 22 Boeta Hamman, 23 Divan Rossouw.
Referee: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
Assistant referees: AJ Jacobs (South Africa), Stephan Geldenhuys (South Africa)
TMO: Christie du Preez (South Africa)
Sharks v Jaguares
(Kings Park, Durban – Kick-off: 17.15; 12.15 Argentina time; 15.15 GMT)
The Sharks need to beat the Jaguares and the Rebels must lose – without a bonus point – to the Highlanders.
If that scenario transpire, the Durban-based franchise can sneak past the Rebels into the play-offs.
This would, of course mean the Sharks have the ‘pleasure’ travelling to Christchurch to play the Crusaders the following week.
“In this game, a lot depends what happens in the morning [between the Highlanders and the Rebels,” Sharks coach Robert du Preez said.
“If the Rebels lose, it will all be in our hands.”
Asked about a seemingly depleted Highlanders team – which is minus a few All Blacks – he said the rest of the team is quality and good enough to beat the Rebels.
“I don’t think there are any weak links [in the Highlanders side] and it is a very good side.”
He added that he expects a very physical game from their Argentinean rivals.
Like the Sharks, the Jaguares will be hoping for some favours from somewhere else.
If the Bulls can beat the Lions in Johannesburg, the Jaguares have the chance of topping the South African conference and then hosting a quarterfinal match.
Veteran prop Santiago García Botta said they are aware of the significance of winning in Durban.
While they will play in the quarterfinals, they will hope the Bulls open the door for them to sneak into the top three.
“We are trying to ensure that having already qualified [for the quarterfinals] does not distract us,”Botta said, adding that they remain focussed on trying to achieve victory on Saturday – regardless of what transpires in the earlier match.
“Of course, having qualified, made us very happy, but it should not distract us from the main objective.
“We are expecting a very tough game. It will be a very physical one and for that reason, the work of the forwards will be very important.”
Recent results:
2018: Jaguares won 29-13, Buenos Aires
2017: Sharks won 33-25, Buenos Aires
2017: Sharks won 18-13, Durban
2016: Sharks won 25-22, Buenos Aires
2016: Sharks won 19-15, Durban
Prediction: The Jaguares ran out to a 29-13 win when they last met with the Sharks in Round 15 this season, their first win against the Durban club after losing their previous four. Each of the Sharks’ last seven games has been won by the home team on the day, with the Durban outfit picking up four home wins in that time. The Jaguares have won seven of their last eight games overall; however, they’ve lost their last seven games in South Africa with their last win in the country coming in the opening round of the 2017 campaign against the Kings. The Sharks (2.1) are the only team this season to kick two or more penalty goals per game. Guido Petti Pagadizaval has stolen 14 line-outs this campaign, more than any other player in the competition. So much depends on what happens in two earlier games – the Highlanders against the Rebels in Dunedin and the Lions against the Bulls in Johannesburg. If you take those factors out of the equation, the Sharks should win by seven points.
Teams:
Sharks: 15 Curwin Bosch, 14 Jacobus van Wyk, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Robert du Preez, 9 Louis Schreuder, 8 Daniel du Preez, 7 Jacques Vermeulen, 6 Philip van der Walt, 5 Ruan Botha (captain), 4 Tyler Paul, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Armand van der Merwe, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Mahlatse Ralepelle, 17 Juan Schoeman, 18 John-Hubert Meyer, 19 Hyron Andrews, 20 Wian Vosloo, 21 Cameron Wright, 22 Marius Louw, 23 Makazole Mapimpi.
Jaguares: 15 Ramiro Moyano, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Bautista Ezcurra, 11 Sebastian Cancelliere, 10 Joaquín Díaz Bonilla, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Juan Manuel Leguizamón, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera (captain), 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Matias Alemanno, 3 Santiago Medrano, 2 Julian Montoya, 1 Javier Diaz.
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Santiago Garcia Botta, 18 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 19 Guido Petti, 20 Javier Ortega Desio, 21 Gonzalo Bertranou, 22 Nicolas Sanchez, 23 Emiliano Boffelli.
Referee: Rasta Rasivhenge (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Egon Seconds (South Africa), Archie Sehlako (South Africa)
TMO: Willie Vos (South Africa)
Compiled by Jan de Koning; additional reporting by AFP
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* Statistics provided by Opta Sports
