Road to play-offs: Three dark horses
The Hurricanes may have hit a road-bump, but they are already guaranteed a place in Super Rugby's semifinals.
While their 18-35 loss to a rampant Crusaders team last Friday showed they are beatable, the tournament's runaway leaders remain in control of their own destiny.
However, they face an intriguing run-in to the play-offs that will leave the back door open for one team to overtake them at the top.
What is certain is that the Hurricanes will be in the play-offs, although they can finish as low as fourth – given the asinine nature of the Super Rugby competition that guarantee conference winners a top-three spot, even if they have less points than teams in other conferences.
The Highlanders, the only team that can still overtake the Hurricanes and on a three-match winning streak, will get a chance to knock them down another peg – and deny them a bye in the preliminary round of play-offs on the weekend of June 19 and 21 – when the two sides meet in Wellington this coming Friday.
Next for the Hurricanes is a meeting with the Chiefs, who will be desperate to keep their own play-off dreams alive after suffering two defeats in their last three matches. It is worth nothing that the Hurricanes require just two more points to secure first place on the standings.
The dark horse in the New Zealand conference is the eighth-placed Crusaders, who have away games to the Blues and Brumbies. However, they have been inconsistent to the extreme and have not been able to put back-to-back victories together for the past two months. They also require some favourable results elsewhere.
It is not just in the New Zealand conference where things are going to get interesting, and heated, in the next two weeks.
South Africa's conference leaders, the Stormers, face two domestic derbies – including this coming Saturday's encounter with a high-flying Lions team, currently their closest domestic rivals.
The Lions are one of the three 'dark horses' on the fringe of the play-off zone. However, like the Bulls (in ninth place) the seventh-placed Lions will rely on the goodwill of other teams to qualify for the knock-out stages of the competition.
The Lions have just one match remaining, against the Stormers. They must win, at the very least, then deny the Stormers a bonus point and also hope the Sharks beat the Cape Town franchise – also denying them any points.
Unlikely, but a remote dream to cling to, a first appearance in Super Rugby's play-offs for the Johannesburg-based team since Transvaal won the Super 10 in 1993 and lost to Queensland in the 1995 Final. (We discount the Cats' play-off appearances in 2000 and 2001, as they included the Cheetahs)
The three-time champion Bulls have an equally testing road to the play-offs – requiring bonus-point victories over the Rebels (away) and Cheetahs (at home), while hoping some teams above them don't get any points in the remaining weeks.
In the Australian conference there are just two remaining contenders – the Waratahs (currently top of their table) and the Brumbies.
The Waratahs will complete their South African tour when they face a Cheetahs team that will have a brand-new coach, Franco Smith, and then return home to host the Reds, a team keen to play party spoilers.
The Brumbies are away to the Western Force and home to the Crusaders in an equally testing run-in to the play-offs.
For the rest of the teams there is no more than ride at stake.
We look at the last two weeks of Super Rugby's league action!
Hurricanes:
Current position: First
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: Fourth
Last five matches: WWWWL
Remaining fixtures:
Versus Highlanders at home
Versus Chiefs away
Stormers
Current position: Second
Best possible finish: Second
Worst possible finish: Ninth
Last five matches: WLWWW
Remaining fixtures:
Versus Lions at home
Versus Sharks away
Waratahs
Current position: Third
Best possible finish: Second
Worst possible finish: Ninth
Last five matches: WLWWW
Remaining fixtures:
Versus Cheetahs away
Versus Reds at home
Highlanders
Current position: Fourth
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: Ninth
Last five matches: WLWWW
Remaining fixtures:
Versus Hurricanes away
Versus Blues away
Chiefs
Current position: Fifth
Best possible finish: Fourth
Worst possible finish: Ninth
Last five matches: WLLWL
Remaining fixtures:
Versus Reds away
Versus Hurricanes at home
Brumbies
Current position: Sixth
Best possible finish: Second
Worst possible finish: Ninth
Last five matches: WLLWW
Remaining fixtures:
Versus Western Force away
Versus Crusaders at home
Lions
Current position: Seventh
Best possible finish: Second
Worst possible finish: 10th
Last five matches: LWLWW
Remaining fixture:
Versus Stormers away
Crusaders
Current position: Eighth
Best possible finish: Fourth
Worst possible finish: 11th
Last five matches: WLWLW
Remaining fixtures:
Versus Blues away
Versus Brumbies away
Bulls
Current position: Ninth
Best possible finish: Second
Worst possible finish: 11th
Last five matches: LWLLL
Remaining fixtures:
Versus Rebels away
Versus Cheetahs at home
Rebels
Current position: 10th
Best possible finish: Seventh
Worst possible finish: 12th
Last five matches: WWLLL
Remaining fixtures:
Versus Bulls at home
Versus Western Force at home
Sharks
Current position: 11th
Best possible finish: Eighth
Worst possible finish: 14th
Last five matches: LLLWW
Remaining fixture:
Versus Stormers at home
Reds
Current position: 12th
Best possible finish: 10th
Worst possible finish: 15th
Last five matches: LLWLW
Remaining fixtures:
Versus Chiefs at home
Versus Waratahs away
Cheetahs
Current position: 13th
Best possible finish: 11th
Worst possible finish: 15th
Last five matches: LWLLL
Remaining fixtures:
Versus Waratahs at home
Versus Bulls away
Blues
Current position: 14th
Best possible finish: 11th
Worst possible finish: 15th
Last five matches: LWLWL
Remaining fixtures:
Versus Crusaders at home
Versus Highlanders at home
Western Force
Current position: 15th
Best possible finish: 12th
Worst possible finish: 15th
Last five matches: LLWLL
Remaining fixtures:
Versus Brumbies at home
Versus Rebels away
By Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
