S15 Preview: Round 13, Part One
Friday is crunch time for three New Zealand teams, as the Super Rugby season enters Week 13.
With just five points separating the first-placed Chiefs from the Blues in fifth spot, the Kiwi Conference is without doubt the most keenly contested.
And, as added spice, the weekend's action starts with the Chiefs hosting the Blues in Taranaki.
It is a game between two teams with some devastating attackers, but also two outfits that have been very erratic this season.
Given the importance of the occasion, it will be cracker.
The only other match of the day sees the Hurricanes – who slipped from first to third in the New Zealand conference after last week's disappointing loss to the Waratahs – complete their Australian tour when they tackle on the Rebels in Melbourne.
The men from Wellington would be determined to avoid another slip, as it would leave them with plenty of ground to make up and the June break looming.
Jan de Koning looks at Friday's matches.
Friday, May 9
Chiefs v Blues
(Yarrow Stadium, Taranaki – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)
The Chiefs will be determined to prove to their detractors that their are capable winning a third consecutive Super Rugby, despite their erratic form this year.
With just one wins from their previous six matches, last week's victory over the Lions was vital.
However, while it pushed them back to the top of the New Zealand conference, they know that can slip right down in and instant.
That makes them not only desperate, but also very dangerous – a fact that the Blues coach John Kirwan is well aware of.
Kirwan, speaking on the Blues website, said he was expecting a huge challenge from the Chiefs.
"They're the reigning champions and are a great side full of character," Kirwan said.
"It'll be a big week for them and they'll probably be targeting this week as their rebirth, because they haven't been travelling as well as they would have liked although they still have 30 points.
"For us it's a big test away from home so it's going to be a classic."
Kirwan said there was no way of glossing over the fact that his side had not won a game on the road in 13 matches and that it needed to change this weekend.
"We're well aware of it, this team needs to win away from home if we're going to be in the playoffs, there's no science around that we just need to take more individual responsibility and make sure we get there."
Apart from the congestion in the New Zealand race, the Chiefs are also within striking distance of topping the global table – just five points down on the table-topping Sharks.
Their remaining six matches – broken up by next week's bye and then the June Test window – include five New Zealand Conference derbies and a home match against the Waratahs.
Assistant coach Wayne Smith is in no doubt the importance of going on a winning streak if their are to stay true to their promise of three consecutive title – done only once before, by the Crusaders from 1998 to 2000.
The men from Hamilton feel they have it within them to finish strong.
"You're not looking for miracles," Smith told the Waikato Times.
"[Head coach] Dave [Rennie] and I were talking the other day and we've seldom had an easy game.
"If you look at the last two years we've always battled and we've battled to win and we've won.
"So you've just got to win. The odd day you are on top of your game and the odd day you're not, but the result has to stay the same if you want to win this championship."
Recent results:
2013: Chiefs won 26-16, Auckland
2013: Chiefs won 23-16, Mount Maunganui
2012: Chiefs won 41-34, Auckland
2012: Chiefs won 29-14, Hamilton
2011: Chiefs won 16-11, Auckland
2011: Blues won 16-13, Hamilton
Prediction: The Chiefs (31) and Blues (29) are pretty close in terms of tries scored – both averaging about three per game in their 10 outings. The Chiefs a slight edge in terms of clean break – 75 to 66> They are also slightly better off in terms of their tackle success rate, the Chiefs' 88.3 percent the best in the competition, while the Blues are fourth with 87.8. It is in terms of set pieces where these two teams struggle – the Chiefs have the worst scrum and line-out success rate and the Blues just a few places off the bottom in both those departments. There is no doubt these two teams enjoy an expansive game, which will make for a thriller – which we believe the Chiefs will win – by eight points.
Teams:
Blues: 15 Charles Piutau, 14 Frank Halai, 13 George Moala, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Lolagi Visinia, 10 Simon Hickey, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Brendon O'Connor, 6 Peter Saili, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 Keven Mealamu (captain), 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 James Parsons, 17 Sam Prattley, 18 Angus Ta'avao, 19 Hayden Triggs, 20 Steven Luatua, 21 Piri Weepu, 22 Ihaia West, 23 Pita Ahki.
Chiefs: 15 Tom Marshall, 14 Dwayne Sweeney, 13 Tim Nanai-Williams, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Liam Messam (captain), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Tanerau Latimer, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Michael Fitzgerald, 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Nathan Harris, 1 Pauliasi Manu.
Replacements: 16 Mahonri Schwalger, 17 Jamie Mackintosh, 18 Josh Hohneck, 19 Matt Symons, 20 Liam Squire, 21 Brad Weber, 22 Andrew Horrell, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown.
Referee: Mike Fraser (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Nick Briant (New Zealand), Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
TMO: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)
Rebels v Hurricanes
(AAMI Park, Melbourne – Kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT; 21.40 NZ time)
Both teams are coming off disappointing defeats – games they felt they should have won.
The Rebels' three wins this season have all been at home, while the Hurricanes at least have one away victory.
The Hurricanes, especially after last week's stumble in Sydney, know they can't underestimate the Rebels at their home base in Melbourne.
In fact the Rebels could easily have won a few more games, especially at home.
"It was one of the first things the coaches stressed this week," captain Conrad Smith told Fairfax Media.
"They showed us a lot of stats and in the numbers they are top four or five in all of them," Smith added.
"The games they've lost have been a fight and nobody has put them away.
"They defend well and have a massive workrate from the majority of their players. Every team has had a battle when they've come to play here [Melbourne]."
The Hurricanes and the Rebels both rued missed chances in their defeats last weekend.
The Hurricanes let slip a first-half 24-7 lead in Sydney and were always right in the contest.
The Rebels were left reflecting on handling errors and ill-discipline that allowed Sharks sharpshooter Francois Steyn to accumulate points.
The Rebels also feel they are much better than a bottom-half team with just three wins.
On Friday they will be looking to right the wrongs of last week.
The Hurricanes like to throw the ball around, as their eight-try thriller against the Tahs in Sydney last Saturday showed.
They have a backline with several All Blacks and a forward pack that could trouble the Rebels.
The Rebels, fourth in the Australian conference with three wins and six losses, are especially eager to topple the Hurricanes – given they have a tough finish on the horizon that will include an end of season trip to South Africa to play the Lions and the Bulls.
Previous results:
2012: Hurricanes won 66-24, Wellington
2011: Rebels won 42-25; Melbourne
Prediction: The Rebels have only played the Hurricanes twice – both high-scoring, entertaining affairs – the most recent of those a 12-try game in Wellington two years ago. Nine of those tries were scored by the Hurricanes, who recorded a 66-24 victory. The Rebels have a three-wins-two-defeats record at home this season – having beaten the Cheetahs (35-14), the Brumbies (32-24) and the Force (22-16), but losing to the Crusaders (19-25) and to the Sharks. The Hurricanes are top of the try-scorers list, 34 in 10 starts, the Rebels managing just 16 in their nine outings. The Rebels' tackle success rate (88.2 percent) puts them second on the list, but defence is not at a premium for the Hurricanes, who barely manages 85 percent. Set pieces are also an issue – both teams hovering around mid-table when it comes to scrums, while the Rebels are at least competent in the line-outs – where they have an 89.7 percent success rate. The Hurricanes sometimes blow hot and cold and they will hope last week was their only off day on tour. However, we feel the Hurricanes' travel woes will continue and the Rebels will by 10 points.
Teams:
Rebels: 15 Jason Woodward, 14 Male Sau, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Mitch Inman, 11 Tom English, 10 Bryce Hegarty, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Colby Fainga'a, 5 Luke Jones, 4 Cadeyrn Neville, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Pat Leafa, 1 Cruze Ah-Nau.
Replacements: 16 Shota Horie, 17 Max Lahiff, 18 Paul Alo-Emilie, 19 Hugh Pyle, 20 Sean McMahon, 21 Ben Meehan, 22 Tom Kingston, 23 Angus Roberts.
Hurricanes: 15 Andre Taylor, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith (captain), 12 Alapati Leiua, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 James Broadhurst, 4 Jeremy Thrush/Blade Thomson, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Reggie Goodes
Replacements: 16 Motu Matu'u, 17 Chris Eves, 18 Jeffrey Toomaga-Allen, 19 Blade Thomson/Brad Shields, 20 Jack Lam, 21 Billy Guyton, 22 Tim Bateman, 23 Matt Proctor
Referee: Matt O'Brien (Australia)
Assistant referees: Steve Walsh (Australia), Ed Martin (Australia)
TMO: Peter Marshall (Australia)
