S15 Preview: Round 13, Part Two

Call it the great White hype, but the Australian media have become almost besotted with Jake White's return to Canberra.

While their obsession with White's return to the Australian capital has added some spice to this weekend's top-of-the-table Super Rugby showdown, it has detracted from the real reason why this could be a show-stopper.

It will test the championship credentials of both teams, an aspect that should have reduced the Australian media's fixation with history to a footnote.

However, before we even get to the Canberra crunch, there is another very interesting match to get Saturday's action underway – when the Highlanders return from South Africa to host the Lions in Dunedin.

Only then follows the Brumbies' chance to get one over on their former coach, before we head across the Indian Ocean where the Cheetahs will host the Western Force in Bloemfontein.

Saturday's dram is concluded with South Africa's big north-south derby – the revitalised Bulls hosting an injury-riddled Stormers team in Pretoria.

We conclude the weekend's action with a Sunday match – a struggling Reds team at home to a Crusaders side starting to gain some serious momentum.

Jan de Koning looks at Saturday and Sunday's matches.

Saturday, May 10

Highlanders v Lions

(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT; 09.35 SA time)

The Lions may have lost the early-season momentum they built up, but most coaches will tell you they are not the easybeats some people suggest they are.

Yes, there are flaws in their make-up and perhaps they don't have the dept to be consistent, but when they do turn on the charm they are every bot as dangerous as a table-topping side.

Despite having lost their last four games, Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph remains wary of the side from Johannesburg, which plays an unorthodox style.

''The Lions team is a team that is very different from all the other South African teams that we have played," the Highlanders mentor told the Otago Daily Times.

"They have a very attacking mindset and a very good set piece.

"Every other team they have played against have struggled against them, as they have a very good scrum and line-out.''

Lions coach Johan Ackermann returned the compliments, but not the usual clichéd assessment you would expect.

He feels the Highlanders's real threat is in their backline and not the pack – as tradition would dictate.

"They showed in recent weeks their strength is in No.9, No.10, the two centres and Ben Smith [at fullback]," Ackermann told rugby365 in an interview from the team's base in New Zealand.

"They may not be the biggest set of forwards, but they are certainly a hardworking pack.

They have players who grind it out for 80 minutes.

"We may be able to take them on up front. However, the key is that we can't afford to do it just for 30 or 40 minutes, like we did last week [against the Chiefs] and the have a lapse. We will have to maintain the intensity for 80 minutes."

The Lions mentor said there is no doubt the Highlanders' 'sting' is in their backline and their ability to attack from anywhere.

He also said his team focussed on two key aspects that let them down last week – their work under the high ball and decision-making.

"We need better decisions, not just by the forwards, but also our back three, as well as No.9 and No.10," Ackermann said, adding: "We also worked on the high bombs, because we felt players were not working hard enough to get back [to support]."

Recent results:

2011: Lions won 26-22, Dunedin

2010: Highlanders won 39-29, Dunedin

2009: Lions won 27-22, Johannesburg

2008: Highlanders won 29-20, Dunedin

2007: Lions won 11-6, Johannesburg

2006: Highlanders won 16-14, Invercargill

Prediction: The Lions have won just one of their last 14 away games in Super Rugby (21-20 against the Cheetahs in February). Of players to land 20+ kicks at goal this season Marnitz Boshoff has the best accuracy rate, 91 percent (39 from 43). Warren Whiteley is one of eight players to make 100+ tackles this season, of those eight he has the best success rate (98 percent – 114 from 116). The Lions have won 92 percent of scrums on their own feed this season, the best rate in the tournament. The Highlanders have averaged the least amount of time in possession of any side this season (13 minutes and 57 seconds) and subsequently been forced to make more tackles per game (134) than any other team. With the Highlanders having travelled back from South Africa after a heartbreaking one-point loss to the Stormers there is a window of opportunity for the Lions to end their six-week (four matches and two byes) losing streak. However, we feel the home ground advantage will see the Highlanders sneak it by five points.

Teams:

Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (co-captain), 14 Richard Buckman, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Phil Burleigh, 11 Jason Emery, 10 Hayden Parker, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu (co-captain), 7 John Hardie, 6 Elliot Dixon, 5 Josh Bekhuis, 4 Joe Wheeler, 3 Ma'afu Fia, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Chris King.

Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Matias Diaz, 18 Kane Hames, 19 Tom Franklin, 20 TJ Ioane, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Trent Renata, 23 Gareth Evans.

Lions: 15 Chrysander Botha, 14 Courtnall Skosan, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Stefan Watermeyer, 11 Anthony Volmink, 10 Marnitz Boshoff, 9 Francois de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Derick Minnie, 6 Jaco Kriel, 5 Martin Muller, 4 Luvuyiso Lusaseni, 3 Julian Redelinghuys, 2 Robbie Coetzee, 1 Schalk van der Merwe.

Replacements: 16 Armand van der Merwe, 17 Corne Fourie, 18 Jacques van Rooyen, 19 Rudi Matthee, 20 Warwick Tecklenburg, 21 Ross Cronje, 22 Elton Jantjies, 23 JW Jonker.

Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)

Assistant referees: Garratt Williamson (New Zealand), Kane McBride (New Zealand)

TMO: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)

Brumbies v Sharks

(GIO Stadium, Canberra – Kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT; 11.40 SA time)

The team that was coached by White for two years host the team currently being coached by the World Cup-winning former Springbok mentor.

And therein lies a story.

They are both successful playing a game White is famous for – a territory-based style in which tactical kicking and a strangling defence is at a premium.

Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham admitted there were similarities between the Brumbies' game and that of the Sharks.

However, Larkham said he had introduced a few 'tactics' this week in an attempt to out-wit White.

"He certainly knows how we play, but by the same token we know how they play as well," Larkham told The Canberra Times.

"It's a very similar game. There's a few things, a few tactics that we're going to introduce this week that will hopefully catch them."

No doubt it will be a brutal arm-wrestle with more than just bragging rights on offer.

Sharks replacement back Heimar Williams said the game will be a good indication for where they stand in terms of championship potential.

"It will be good for us to measure ourselves against one of the competition's top teams," Williams told rugby365 from the team's base in Australia.

The Sharks make no secret of the fact that they see it as a "crucial" game.

"It will be very physical, but we are looking forward to playing against them," he said of a Brumbies team that also targets the breakdowns.

"They go in hard on the ball and it is an area they always look to dominate," Williams said, adding that have made the breakdown a priority in training this week.

Recent results:

2013: Brumbies won 29-10, Durban

2012: Sharks won 29-26, Canberra

2011: Sharks won 34-16, Durban

2010: Brumbies won 24-22, Canberra

2009: Sharks won 35-14, Durban

2008: Brumbies won 27-21, Canberra

Prediction: The Brumbies have won their last four home games in Super Rugby. The last time they won five consecutive games was in 2010 (part of a streak that ended at eight). Stephen Moore has landed more successful line-out throws (109) than any other player this season; he also has the best accuracy rate (91 percent) of any player to take 50+. At the other set piece though, the scrum, the Brumbies have the worst success rate of any side (75 percent). Francois Steyn has attempted eight drop-goals this season and been unsuccessful with all of them. Despite having to make fewer tackles per game than any other side the Sharks still have the lowest success rate (84 percent). We don't expect anything fancy, but feel the Sharks will win a game with a margin in the single digits.

Teams:

Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Joe Tomane, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Robbie Coleman, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen (captain), 7 Jarrad Butler, 7 Jarrad Butler, 6 Fotu Auelua, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Scott Fardy, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio.

Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 Ruan Smith, 18 Ruaidhri Murphy, 19 Jordan Smiler, 20 Tom McVerry, 21 Conrad Hoffmann, 22 Andrew Smith, 23 Pat McCabe.

Sharks: 15 Lwazi Mvovo, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Sibusiso Sithole, 12 Paul Jordaan, 11 JP Pietersen, 10 Francois Steyn, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Jean Deysel, 6 Keegan Daniel, 5 Stephan Lewies, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis (captain), 1 Tendai Mtawarira.

Replacements: 16 Kyle Cooper, 17 Dale Chadwick, 18 Lourens Adriaanse, 19 Etienne Oosthuizen, 20 Tera Mtembu, 21 Charl McLeod, 22 Heimar Williams, 23 SP Marais.

Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)

Assistant referees: Andrew Lees, James Leckie (Australia)

TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)

Cheetahs v Western Force

(Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein – Kick-off: 17.05; 15.05 GMT; 23.05 AWST)

The return of flyhalf Sias Ebersohn to Bloemfontein for his first match since joining the Force last year will be added spice to what shapes up to be an entertaining try-fest.

But don't forget lock Wilhelm Steenkamp. He may have joined the Force from the Bulls this year, but played 13 matches for the Cheetahs in 2012.

In the welcoming party for the Force will be Springbok flyhalf Johan Goosen, the very player whose emergence forced an out-of-sorts Ebersohn to head to Perth.

The Cheetahs have also brought back barnstorming Bok prop Coenie Oosthuizen.

The Force returns to action after last week's bye and will be chasing their seventh victory for the season and their third on the road in 2014.

Force coach Michael Foley says the four remaining matches leading into the June Test break represents an important period for his side.

"It was pleasing to see the boys adapt to a different style of game in difficult conditions against the Bulls," he said of their encounter before last week's break.

"The intensity we played with was excellent and will be critical in overcoming the Cheetahs, who have scored the third most tries in the competition this season.

"The Cheetahs present a different challenge to other South Africa sides; while they use their set piece and kicking game as a weapon, they also play with width. If we maintain our work rate and discipline in defence as a 15, we will earn important opportunities to attack from turnover ball."

However, the Cheetahs will be looking to build on their longest Super Rugby winning streak, which stretches back to 2009. The last time the Western Australians beat the Cheetahs, was on 20 February 2009.

Cheetahs captain Adriaan Strauss said they are determined to make amends for last week's disappointing loss to the Bulls, when they let a half-time lead slip.

"We will be looking to get that win, but we realise we have a lot to work and improve on," Strauss said.

"We need to see an improvement in our play this weekend. Our focus will be on our own game and hopefully the result will come because of that.

"But we know we have to play very well tactically against the Force. They have a good kicking game and we need to be right up there on defence and work very hard."

Recent results:

2013: Cheetahs won 19-10, Perth

2012: Cheetahs won 17-13, Bloemfontein

2010: Cheetahs won 29-14, Bloemfontein

2009: Force won 16-10, Perth

2008: Force won 16-15, Bloemfontein

2007: Force won 45-17, Perth

Prediction: The Cheetahs have won their last three games against the Force, this coming after losing the previous four Super Rugby meetings. Willie le Roux remains well clear on the metres made charts, so far he has accrued 903 metres over the gain line, 127 more than the next best (Ben Smith – 776 metres). Matt Hodgson has won more turnovers (18) than any other player so far in 2014, averaging two per appearance. He also ranks first in tackles made with 149, ahead of Jacques du Plessis (122) and Shane Christie (120). The Force have conceded fewer turnovers per game than any other Super Rugby outfit this season (12.8). Going with the home ground trend of the season we feel the Cheetahs will by 10 to 15 points.

Teams:

Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Raymond Rhule, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Rayno Benjamin, 11 Willie le Roux, 10 Johan Goosen, 9 Sarel Pretorius 8 Johannes Prinsloo, 7 Teboho Mohoje, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Francois Uys, 4 Waltie Vermeulen, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Caylib Oosthuizen.

Replacements: 16 Torsten van Jaarsveld, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Nicolaas van Dyk, 19 Carel Greeff, 20 Willem Serfontein, 21 Shaun Venter, 22 Elgar Watts, 23 Cornal Hendricks.

Western Force: 15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Marcel Brache, 12 Kyle Godwin, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Sias Ebersohn, 9 Ian Prior, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Matt Hodgson (captain), 6 Angus Cottrell, 5 Sam Wykes, 4 Adam Coleman, 3 Kieran Longbottom, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pek Cowan.

Replacements: 16 Heath Tessmann, 17 Tetera Faulkner, 18 Ollie Hoskins, 19 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 20 Brynard Stander, 21 Justin Turner, 22 Zack Holmes, 23 Chris Tuatara-Morrison.

Referee: Chris Pollock (New Zealand)

Assistant referees: Marius Jonker (South Africa), Francois de Bruin (South Africa)

TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)

Bulls v Stormers

(Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria – Kick-off: 19.10; 17.10 GMT)

You can ignore the Stormers' lengthy injury list or the Bulls' erratic form.

This is the ultimate in derbies.

They will both be up for it and it WILL be brutal.

But that is how they like it in South Africa – no quarter asked or given, the first one to blink will be the loser.

Bulls coach Frans Ludeke said that while it may seem (based on results) that Stormers are not having their best season, the men from Cape Town have been very competitive throughout the season.

"They've had their injury setbacks, with key players out – just like us," Ludeke told rugby365.

"Yet, in a number of games against top teams they were right in it at the death and could easily have won some of those. Those players know what it is all about and know what a Bulls-versus-Stormers derby is all about."

The Bulls mentor said these derby games are always won by the best-disciplined team on the day.

"There are not always lots of tries, because as soon as one team opens the game the risk factor increases," Ludeke said.

"There is the chance of more turnovers.

"We have noticed in the last few weeks that they have a more expansive approach.

"However, they do still have a good tactical game, with solid set pieces. But from broken play they are very threatening and attack without hesitation."

Recent results:

2013: Stormers won 30-13, Cape Town

2013: Bulls won 25-17, Pretoria

2012: Stormers won 19-14, Pretoria

2012: Stormers won 20-17, Cape Town

2011: Bulls won 19-16, Cape Town

2011: Stormers won 23-13, Pretoria

Prediction: The Bulls have only managed to score 20+ points in one of their last six games against the Stormers. The Bulls have averaged just 3.4 clean breaks and 5.3 off-loads per game this season, both league low figures. Conversely the Bulls have averaged more kicks from hand per game (31) than any other team. The Stormers have scored fewer points per game (17.4) than anyone else in Super Rugby 2014, a statistic not helped by the fact they have the lowest kicking accuracy rate (67 percent). The Stormers have scored just two tries that have originated from their own half, fewer than any other franchise this season.  It is Loftus and we will stick to our home-team theme – the Bulls by less than 10 points.

Teams:

Bulls: 15 Jurgen Visser, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Grant Hattingh, 7 Jacques du Plessis, 6 Jono Ross, 5 Victor Matfield (captain), 4 Paul Willemse, 3 Marcel van der Merwe, 2 Callie Visagie, 1 Dean Greyling.

Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Werner Kruger, 18 Morné Mellett, 19 Jacques Engelbrecht, 20 Wimpie van der Walt, 21 Rudy Paige, 22 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 23 William Small-Smith.

Stormers: 15 Jaco Taute, 14 Damian de Allende, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Peter Grant, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Kurt Coleman, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Schalk Burger (captain), 6 Nizaam Carr, 5 Ruan Botha, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Pat Cilliers, 2 Scarra Ntubeni, 1 Brok Harris.

Replacements: 16 Stephan Coetzee, 17 Alistair Vermaak, 18 Martin Dreyer, 19 Siya Kolisi, 20 Deon Fourie, 21 Dylon Frylinck, 22 Michael van der Spuy, 23 Devon Williams.

Referee: Craig Joubert

Assistant referees: Lourens van der Merwe, Jaco van Heerden

TMO: Johan Greeff

Sunday, May 11

Reds v Crusaders

(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane – Kick-off: 16.05; 06.05 GMT; 18.05 NZ time)

The seven-time champions Crusaders are on a hot streak and travel to Brisbane aiming for their fifth straight win – as they take on the sliding Reds on Sunday.

However, the sixth-placed Crusaders, who will again be without skipper Kieran Read as he recovers from concussion, last won in Brisbane in 2008.

Reds head coach Richard Graham admitted that his team will be hard-pressed to keep their record intact against the vastly improved Crusaders outfit.

"The results have not gone our way, but we realise we are not that far off," Graham said.

"The playing group have continued to work hard. They understand that change will come if we focus on the issues that make the most difference, continue to prepare at a high standard and remain committed as a squad."

Graham felt that being back in Brisbane, in front of their own supporters, could just be the catalyst to end a five-week winless streak.

"There is a long-standing rivalry with the Crusaders dating back to the start of Super Rugby," the Reds mentor said.

"They are a very good side and I have no doubt the match will see a fantastic game of rugby."

The key for the Crusaders will once again be the form of veteran All Black captain Richie McCaw, who rolled back the years last week – despite not captaining the Crusaders.

And the injury-enforced absence of Matt Todd means McCaw will be under even more pressure at both the breakdown and defence.

Recent results:

2013: Crusaders won 38-9, Christchurch (preliminary play-offs)

2012: Crusaders won 15-11, Christchurch

2011: Reds won 18-13, Brisbane (Final)

2011: Reds won 17-16, Brisbane

2010:  Reds won 41-20, Brisbane

2009: Crusaders won 32-12, Christchurch

Prediction: The last meeting between these sides (2013) saw the Crusaders record their biggest ever win over the Reds (38-9). Quade Cooper stands alone at the top of the try assists charts this season with seven. Dominic Bird is the only player to be sin-binned twice this season. The Crusaders have the best discipline in Super Rugby so far, conceding just 9.2 penalties and free-kicks per game. Only the Lions (five) have scored fewer tries that have originated from a set piece than the Crusaders so far (six – three from line-outs and three from scrums). This will be a rare away this weekend – the Crusaders cruising to a 15-point victory.

Teams:

Reds: 15 Mike Harris, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Ben Tapuai, 12 Anthony Fainga'a, 11 Jamie-Jerry Taulagi, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Jake Schatz, 7 Beau Robinson, 6 Curtis Browning, 5 James Horwill (captain), 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 James Hanson, 1 Ben Daley.

Replacements: 16 Saia Fainga'a, 17 Albert Anae, 18 Jono Owen, 19 Ed O'Donoghue, 20 Dave McDuling, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Ben Lucas, 23 Rod Davies.

Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Johnny McNicholl, 13 Rey Lee-Lo, 12 Ryan Crotty (captain), 11 Nemani Nadolo, 10 Colin Slade, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Luke Whitelock, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jordan Taufua, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.

Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Tim Perry, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Jimmy Tupou, 20 George Whitelock, 21 Willi Heinz, 22 Tyler Bleyendaal, 23 Nafi Tuitavake.

Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)

Assistant referees: Rohan Hoffmann (Australia), Damien Mitchelmore (Australia)

TMO: Steve Leszczynski (Australia)