S15 Preview: Round 15, Part One
It doesn't get much better than our opening match of Super Rugby's Round 15 – the Sharks against the Blues.
It is not so much that it is a table-topping team against a desperate side.
It is because the drama that accompanied the Sharks' against-all-odds win in Christchurch – a performance made even more remarkable by the fact that they were down to a man for 63 minutes and down to 13 players for 10 crucial minutes in the final quarter.
For Sharks Director of Rugby the biggest job this week would have been to keep the players grounded, given the emotional high of their historic win – their first-ever victory in Christchurch and that after receiving two cards.
White said the belief his team will take from the Christchurch triumph will be crucial when facing the Blues – one of just two teams with a 100- percent home record this season.
"There was a lot of talk before we left [South Africa] about how hard it is to tour and how South African sides have toured badly," White said.
"There were questions asked why South African sides aren't winning away from home.
"So to come over and beat the Crusaders, after such a drought against them in Christchurch, is massive.
"We are also obviously mindful of the fact that we can't jump the gun. We still have two more games before the June recess and we need to keep the momentum going.
After such a thrilling start we hop across the Tasman Sea for an all-Australian derby – the Rebels versus the Waratahs in Melbourne.
And then there is another big trek, across the Indian Ocean, for another massive game – the Bulls hosting the Brumbies in a replay of last year's semifinal at Loftus Versfeld.
Jan de Koning looks at Friday's game!
Friday, May 23
Blues v Sharks
(North Harbour Stadium, Albany – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT; 09.35 SA time)
The Sharks will have struck fear into the hearts of all opposition with their brave effort against the Crusaders last week.
If there was any doubt about their championship potential, that has been removed.
However, the Blues are as desperate this week as the Sharks were last week. It is simply a must-win for the Blues if they are to keep their hopes of making the play-offs alive.
The big question for John Kirwan's charges is whether they can take their Eden Park form (where they haven't lost this year) to Albany?
"We all know [Sharks coach] Jake White very well and he plays a great brand of football as far as strangling the opposition goes and really making you work hard for every yard – so we're expecting that," Kirwan said.
"You also couple that with eight or nine Springboks in the side, so they're not at the top of the [global] conference for no reason.
"I think last week was a pretty awesome effort against the Crusaders, they'd be proud of that so we're going to have to be on top of our game."
The Sharks boss, White, admitted they will have to be more inventive than last week, when bravery on defence was rewarded with a historic win.
"We are going to have to defend well," White said, adding: "However, I don't think they will kick as much as the Crusaders did.
"The Blues will definitely try run it back and they've got some dangerous outside backs.
In saying that, we need to make sure that the rest of our game is good enough as well, we can't rely on defence only."
The Sharks' Director of Rugby felt his team also showed they can score tries, despite ongoing criticism of his team's tactics.
"To put it in perspective, the Crusaders had scored nearly 100 points in the two matches before we met and they scored just one try against us," White said.
"However, the positives are that we scored three tries [against the Crusaders] and there is a massive vibe in the team now.
"We need to take that forward into the next couple of weeks."
Recent results:
2013: Sharks won 22-20, Durban
2012: Sharks won 29-23, Auckland
2011: Sharks won 26-12, Durban
2010: Sharks won 23-10, Durban
2009: Sharks won 35-31, Auckland
2008: Sharks won 22-17, Durban
Prediction: The Blues have scored 10 more tries than the Sharks, but conceded double the number of tries that the Sharks have. The Sharks have the worst tackle success rate (84.3 percent), compared to the Blues' 88.1 percent – which puts the in second place in that category. Despite the Sharks' all-Springbok front row they have a scrum success rate of just 82 percent, but their line-out success is above 90 percent. While the Blues' scrum is marginally better (84 percent), their line-out is a woeful 82 percent. And that is probably where the game will be decided – in the set pieces – as the teams are equal (94 percent) in terms of their breakdown work. We feel the Sharks will get the upper-hand up front and record their third tour win – by less than 10 points.
Teams:
Blues: 15 Lolagi Visinia, 14 Frank Halai, 13 Pita Ahki, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Tevita Li, 10 Simon Hickey, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Luke Braid (captain), 6 Peter Saili, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 James Parson, 17 Sam Prattley, 18 Angus Ta'avao, 19 Hayden Triggs, 20 Steven Luatua, 21 Jamison Gibson-Park, 22 Ihaia West, 23 Albert Nikoro.
Sharks: 15 SP Marais, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Sibusiso Sithole, 12 Paul Jordaan, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Francois Steyn, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Willem Alberts, 7 Lubabalo Mtembu, 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Stephan Lewies, 4 Etienne Oosthuizen, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis (captain), 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Kyle Cooper, 17 Dale Chadwick, 18 Lourens Adriaanse, 19 Ryan Kankowski, 20 Keegan Daniel, 21 Charl McLeod, 22 Tim Swiel, 23 Heimar Williams.
Referee: Nick Briant (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Mike Fraser (New Zealand), Aki Aso (Japan)
TMO: Aaron Peterson (New Zealand)
Rebels v Waratahs
(AAMI Park, Melbourne – Kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT)
One team is playing for pride, the other to keep alive their play-off hopes. Desperation is a good thing if channeled correctly.
Winning on the road has been a real battle for the Waratahs, with their only away win this season coming in South Africa.
However, they are within a point of overtaking the Brumbies (who play the Bulls later Friday) at the top of the Australian conference.
The Waratahs have made no secret that they are aspiring to secure a top-two finish and the home ground advantage in the play-offs that goes with it.
But easy it won't be.
The Rebels return home fresh from their first-ever victory against the Reds. The Rebels are also far more formidable at home, with three of their four victories this season having been in Melbourne.
The Waratahs have also not been the best team on the road, having won just once away from the home – mirroring a season that has a home-win record of just on 74 percent.
There is also no love lost between these two Australian franchises.
The Rebels openly state they view the Waratahs as their biggest rival, and love nothing more than defeating them.
Despite coming off back-to-back victories, Waratahs defensive coach Nathan Grey – who spent three years on the Rebels' coaching staff – admitted getting a win in Melbourne won't be easy.
"They are always tough to beat at home and they'll have a lot of confidence highlighted by their first away win over the Reds," said Grey.
"Plus in their last home game against the competition-leading Sharks, they put themselves in a position to win.
"They've got good support and they'll have the crowd screaming for them."
The Waratahs have been in tremendous form, dismantling the Lions in Sydney last Sunday and currently sitting second in the Australian conference.
However, after a first ever victory against the Reds last weekend Rebels coach Tony McGahan is confident his players can deliver back to back wins for the first time this season.
"We don't have any doubt about what our players can deliver from a work ethic and standards point of view; that has been evident really over the last nine weeks, with their terrific application," the coach explained.
"What we do need to make sure is that we turn up ready from a game management point of view.
"Our game management has been improving every week. Against the Waratahs, who have been in tremendous form, we need it to keep improving in order to stay connected in the game."
Previous results:
2014: Waratahs won 32-8, Sydney
2013: Rebels won 24-22, Melbourne
2013: Waratahs won 31-26, Sydney
2012: Waratahs won 30-21, Sydney
2012: Waratahs won 35-19, Melbourne
2011: Waratahs won 28-9, Sydney
2011: Waratahs won 43-0, Melbourne
Prediction: The Waratahs are better at scoring tries, 10 tries better, than the Rebels. However, the Rebels are better on defence – a tackle success rate of 89 percent, compared to the 87 percent of the Waratahs. The Rebels are also better in the set pieces – winning 86 percent of their scrums (the Waratahs are at 82) and 90 percent of their line-outs (the Waratahs at 84). They are even in breakdown stats. We feel the game could be won by the star players in the backline, of which the Waratahs have a few more – victory by about 15 points.
Teams:
Rebels: 15 Jason Woodward, 14 Tom Kingston, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Mitch Inman, 11 Tom English, 10 Bryce Hegarty, 9 Ben Meehan, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Colby Fainga'a, 5 Luke Jones, 4 Cadeyrn Neville, 3 Paul Alo-Emilie, 2 Pat Leafa, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 Steve Fualau, 17 Cruze Ah-Nau, 18 Max Lahiff, 19 Hugh Pyle, 20 Sean McMahon, 21 Josh Holmes, 22 Jack Debreczeni, 23 Angus Roberts.
Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Alofa Alofa, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis (captain), 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Jacques Potgieter, 3 Paddy Ryan, 2 Tatafu Polota Nau, 1 Benn Robinson. .
Replacements – from: 16 Hugh Roach, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Sekope Kepu, 19 Will Skelton, 20 Stephen Hoiles, 21 Brendan McKibbin, 22 Jono Lance, 23 Matt Carraro, 24 Pat McCutcheon, 25 Taqele Naiyaravoro.
Referee: Rohan Hoffmann (Australia)
Assistant referees: Matt O'Brien (Australia), Graham Cooper (Australia)
TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)
Bulls v Brumbies
(Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria – Kick-off: 19.10; 17.10 GMT; 03.10, Saturday, May 24 AEST)
The Bulls say they have moved on from last year's disappointing semifinal loss – one of two controversial three-point defeats they suffered at the hands of the Brumbies in 2013.
The Brumbies, in turn, have been working hard to bounce back from last week's loss to a much-improved Cheetahs side in Bloemfontein.
While the history between these two sides make for an interesting sidenote and adds some spice to the Loftus showdown, it is the present that will prove their championship credentials.
The Bulls have welcomed back regular captain Flip van der Merwe – after a three-week suspension that also afforded him time to overcome a few niggles.
Coach Frans Ludeke believes the burly second row forward's return – where he will partner fellow Springbok Victor Matfield – will be key to his team's cause.
It is the experience he brings, and the calmness that goes with it, that will be most valuable.
"We are playing against a quality team," Ludeke told rugby365.
"They are not top of the Australian conference for nothing.
"They are playing good rugby, despite last week's loss [to the Cheetahs], and are one of the top teams in terms of attacking from set piece play.
"They are clinical from line-outs and scrums."
Ludeke added that he hopes players like Paul Willemse, Marcel van der Merwe and Handré Pollard – dropped to the bench after starting the last two weeks – will make a huge impact in the second half.
"It is great when the team plays well and you make changes and those guys bring a greater impact," the Bulls mentor said.
He added that good competition for places brings momentum to the team and it is vital to add depth to your squad.
Recent results:
2013: Brumbies won 26-23, Pretoria (semifinal)
2013: Brumbies won 23-20, Canberra
2012: Bulls won 36-34, Pretoria
2010: Bulls won 50-32, Pretoria
2009: Brumbies won 32-31, Canberra
2008: Bulls won 28-17, Pretoria
Prediction: The Brumbies, despite their well-documented kicking game, is joint third in the try-scoring list with 32 touchdowns. The Bulls have just 18 tries. However, the Brumbies' defence has been a bit leaky, a tackle success ate of just 84.8 percent – compared to the 86.2 of the Bulls. It is not a surprise that the Bulls top the line-out stats (92 percent), but the Brumbies are right behind them on 91 percent. The scrums are a very different story – the Brumbies the worst with a success rate of just 76 percent, while the Bulls are much improved and sit on 87 percent. It is going to a colossal arm-wrestle, with home ground advantage likely to help the Bulls win by less than 10 points.
Teams:
Bulls: 15 Jurgen Visser, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Grant Hattingh, 7 Jacques du Plessis, 6 Jono Ross, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Flip van der Merwe (captain), 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Callie Visagie, 1 Dean Greyling.
Replacements: 16 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 17 Morne Mellett, 18 Marcel van der Merwe, 19 Paul Willemse, 20 Jacques Engelbrecht, 21 Piet van Zyl, 22 Handrè Pollard, 23 Ulrich Beyers.
Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Robbie Coleman, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen (captain), 7 Jarrad Butler, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Leon Power, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 Ruan Smith, 18 JP Smith, 19 Fotu Auelua, 20 Jordan Smiler, 21 Conrad Hoffmann, 22 Andrew Smith, 23 Pat McCabe.
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Jaco Peyper (South Africa), Cobus Wessels (South Africa)
TMO: Johan Greeff (South Africa)
