S15 Preview: Round 15, Part Two
It is 'civil war' in New Zealand on Saturday. Derby day sees four teams in the competition's most contested conference go head-to-head.
Given that just four points separate the conference-leading Chiefs (third on the global table) from the Hurricanes (fourth in NZ and in eighth overall), it is clear there will be no love lost in Aotearoa.
The day starts with the South Island derby between the Highlanders (fifth with 34 points) and Crusaders (sixth, 32) in Dunedin.
It will be no less impassioned when the Hurricanes (eighth, 31) host the Chiefs (third, 35) in Wellington's Cake Tin.
While there are another two very absorbing encounters – the Western Force against the Lions in Perth and the Stormers versus the Cheetahs at Newlands – the day's focus will be on the Kiwi match-ups.
After all, with the June break looming defeat this weekend could have catastrophic consequences.
Jan de Koning looks at Saturday's game!
Saturday, May 24
Highlanders v Crusaders
(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – Kick-off: 17.35; 05.35 GMT)
While the protracted Zac Guildford saga bubbled back to the surface in Christchurch this week, the Highlanders quietly went about their business preparing for a must-win showdown in the tournament's only indoor stadium.
The Christchurch-based The Press newspaper reported this week that the troubled All Black has been cut mid-season and started preparations for his move to Clermont in France.
While the rumour mill was going into overdrive in the northern half of the South Island, down Dunedin way Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph was working hard to ensure his team is prepared for a brutal arm-wrestle.
The wily Joseph felt the visitors's real strength is their adaptability.
"If they [the Crusaders] want to play a forward-oriented game, then they have got the All Black forward pack to do that,'' Joseph to the Otago Daily Times.
''If they want to play a wide game, they have got the All Black backline to play that way.
"What we have seen in recent times is them kicking the ball a lot. I'm not sure they will do that all the time. I've no doubt they will do that at some time.
''That is why they are such a difficult team to play against, as they have got three or four different ways to attack and we will have to be awake to that.''
However, the mood was very different in the Crusaders camp, where they circled the wagons into a laager in the face of media enquiries about reports that Guildford has been cut loose.
Guildford signed a two-year deal – with an option of a third – with the French club and was expected to join them after the Super Rugby season ended.
But The Press reported that both parties have agreed on a split and it will become official when the New Zealand Rugby Union terminates the former All Black's contract.
Guildford, whose battles with alcohol have been a constant throughout his professional career, was a notable absentee from Crusaders training at Rugby Park this week.
Although the Crusaders would not comment on his whereabouts, stating they were focusing on Saturday's must-win match against the Highlanders in Dunedin, it's understood he is no longer considered an official member of their squad.
It is uncertain how this will affect the squad.
It could be a major distraction or it could galvanise them.
Recent results:
2013: Crusaders won 40-12, Dunedin
2013: Crusaders won 24-8, Christchurch
2012: Crusaders won 51-18, Christchurch
2012: Highlanders won 27-24, Dunedin
2011: Highlanders won 26-18, Nelson
2011: Crusaders won 44-13, Dunedin
Prediction: The Highlanders' opponents on average spend more time with the ball in hand (18 minutes), subsequently the Dunedin franchise has attempted the most tackles. The Crusaders have averaged more line-out steals per game (2.3) than any other side this season. The Crusaders have notched up more points per game (29) than any other team. However, no player has beaten more defenders than Malakai Fekitoa (39) this season. It is indeed an intriguing encounter and a tough call to make. We will go with the home town theme and say the Highlanders will sneak it by a single score – five points or less.
Teams:
Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (co-captain), 14 Richard Buckman, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Shaun Treeby, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu (co-captain), 7 Shane Christie, 6 Elliot Dixon, 5 Joe Wheeler, 4 Jarrad Hoeata, 3 Chris King, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Kane Hames.
Replacements: 16 Sam Anderson-Heather, 17 Matias Diaz, 18 Ma'afu Fia, 19 Tom Franklin, 20 Gareth Evans, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Hayden Parker, 23 Phil Burleigh.
Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Johnny McNicholl, 13 Tom Taylor, 12 Ryan Crotty (captain), 11 Nemani Nadolo, 10 Colin Slade, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Luke Whitelock, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jordan Taufua, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Dominic Bird, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Ben Funnell, 1 Tim Perry.
Replacements: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Owen Franks, 19 Jimmy Tupou, 20 George Whitelock, 21 Willi Heinz, 22 Adam Whitelock, 23 Nafi Tuitavake.
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Garratt Williamson (New Zealand), Ben O'Keeffe (New Zealand)
TMO: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
Hurricanes v Chiefs
(Westpac Stadium, Wellington – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)
Just as is the case with the other New Zealand derby, there are off-field distractions that could potentially trip up one of the teams.
Hurricanes coach Mark Hammett had hoped his revelation of a move to Cardiff (in Wales) in a couple of months would not attract headlines.
He was, badly, mistaken. Hammett confirmed this week that he has signed with the Cardiff Blues for three years and will depart at the end of the Super Rugby season.
"I still hope it's not a major headline," he told the Dominion Post.
"One of the big things is I've tried to keep it fairly low-key so it won't be a distraction.
"However, the team knows now . . . and I've said I'll just let it roll out as it comes out, but I don't want a big fuss."
Given the importance of Saturday's game his timing was probably slightly off.
It is a key encounter for both the Hurricanes and the Chiefs, with competition points vital at this stage of the season.
Despite the Hurricanes losing 16-18 to the Highlanders and the Chiefs having a bye last week, the Crusaders' 25-30 loss to the 13-man Sharks kept all the New Zealand sides in contention.
Including this game the Hurricanes have four more matches in the regular season, all against New Zealand opposition. They play the Chiefs on Saturday, the Blues in Auckland next Saturday and then the Crusaders on June 28 and the Chiefs again on July 4.
With much at stake, Saturday's North Island derby promises to be another hard-fought battle by two super-committed sides with game-breakers stacked throughout their line-ups.
Recent results:
2013: Chiefs won 34-22, Hamilton
2013: Chiefs won 17-12, Wellington
2012: Hurricanes won 28-25, Wellington
2012: Chiefs won 33-14, Hamilton
2011: Hurricanes and Chiefs drew 18-all, Hamilton
2011: Hurricanes won 29-26, Wellington
Prediction: The Hurricanes and the Chiefs are the two leading attacking teams in the competition. The Hurricanes have scored the most tries (36) and the Chiefs the second most (35). The Hurricanes have made the most clean breaks of any team (107 in total and nine per match), ahead of the Chiefs with the fourth most (82). The Hurricanes also lead the competition statistics with the most carries (1515) and the most metres (6,077). The Chiefs' line-out success rate 78 percent is the worst in Super Rugby. The Hurricanes' opponents have won a Super Rugby high 92 percent of their own scrums. The Hurricanes' recent form has been erratic, but they will hope the bye last week will leave the Chiefs rusty and allow them to race out to an early lead. We feel the Chiefs will get their act together and take it by 10 points.
Teams:
Hurricanes: 15 Andre Taylor, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith (captain), 12 Alapati Leiua, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Jack Lam, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 James Broadhurst, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Ben Franks.
Replacements: 16 Ash Dixon/Reggie Goodes, 17 Chris Eves, 18 Reggie Goodes/Mike Kainga, 19 Brad Shields, 20 Ardie Savea, 21 Chris Smylie, 22 Tim Bateman, 23 Matt Proctor/James Marshall.
Chiefs: 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Dwayne Sweeney, 13 Charlie Ngatai, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Liam Messam (captain), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Tanerau Latimer, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Michael Fitzgerald, 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Nathan Harris, 1 Pauliasi Manu.
Replacements: 16 Mahonri Schwalger, 17 Jamie Mackintosh, 18 Josh Hohneck, 19 Kane Thompson, 20 Liam Squire, 21 Brad Weber, 22 Aaron Cruden, 23 Tom Marshall.
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant referees: Chris Pollock (New Zealand), Mike Lash (New Zealand)
TMO: Chris Watt (New Zealand)
Western Force v Lions
(nib Stadium, Perth – Kick-off: 17.40 AWST; 09.40 GMT; 11.40 SA time)
Western Force coach Michael Foley says his side is looking forward to returning to Perth on Saturday – with good reason.
They have lost at home only once this season – with the Chiefs, Waratahs and Bulls counting among the scalps taken.
"We love playing at home and we're looking forward to the game this weekend," he said.
However, he took a cautious tone when asked to assess the opposition – a team that won four of their six matches, but have failed to fire a shot in anger since March.
"The Lions have proven to be a dangerous side on the back of a strong set piece and their commitment to play for each other, and I believe the boys are refocused and ready to rip in." Foley said.
Lions coach Johan Ackermann said his team's losing streak is the result of their inability to play for a full 80 minutes.
"Against the Highlanders we were great in the second half, against the Waratahs we had a good first half," he told rugby365 in an interview from the team's base in Perth.
"The problem is those soft moments we have when we gift them points," he said, adding that they have worked hard on ensuring the players remained focussed on those crucial periods just before and after half-time.
"We also looked at other aspects – such as our ball-in-hand game, we looked for the reasons why we concede so many turnovers."
But most significantly, they put in some hard work on defence.
"We've made errors at critical stages that have cost us dearly," Ackermann said, adding: "The challenge for us as a group is to go back to the standard of those games where we played for the full 80 minutes."
Recent results:
2012: Force won 17-11, Perth
2011: Force won 27-15, Johannesburg
2010: Force won 33-12, Johannesburg
2009: Force won 55-14, Perth
2008: Force won 18-16, Johannesburg
2007: Lions won 25-24, Perth
Prediction: The Force have averaged fewer metres (325) per game than any other side. The Lions' scrum success rate (93 percent) is the best in the competition but they also have the worst ruck success rate (91 percent). The Perth side have averaged fewer turnovers won (11.7) per match than any other team. The Lions have scored just 17 tries this season, a Super Rugby low. Matt Hodgson (179) and Warren Whiteley (137) rank first and second respectively for tackles made this season. The Lions remain a dangerous side and will continue to be entertaining. However, a combination of injuries (they are paying the price for their lack of depth) and some questionable selections will hand the Force a clear advantage and victory – by 10 to 15 points.
Teams:
Western Force: 15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Chris Tuatara-Morrison, 12 Luke Burton, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Sias Ebersohn, 9 Ian Prior, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Matt Hodgson (captain), 6 Angus Cottrell, 5 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 4 Sam Wykes, 3 Kieran Longbottom, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Heath Tessmann, 17 Tetera Faulkner, 18 Ollie Hoskins, 19 Adam Coleman, 20 Brynard Stander, 21 Justin Turner, 22 Zack Holmes, 23 Patrick Dellit.
Lions: 15 Coenie van Wyk, 14 JW Jonker, 13 Deon van Rensburg, 12 Alwyn Hollenbach, 11 Anthony Volmink, 10 Marnitz Boshoff, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Warwick Tecklenburg, 6 Jaco Kriel, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Rudi Matthee, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Armand van der Merwe, 1 Corne Fourie.
Replacements: 16 Robbie Coetzee, 17 Jacques van Rooyen, 18 Julian Redelinghuys, 19 Willie Britz, 20 Stephan de Wit, 21 Francois de Klerk, 22 Elton Jantjies, 23 Stefan Watermeyer.
Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant referees: James Leckie (Australia), Ian Smith (Australia)
TMO: Peter Marshall (Australia)
Stormers v Cheetahs
(Newlands, Cape Town – Kick-off: 17.05; 15.05 GMT)
Both teams are still hovering well outside the top 10 in the competition standings, but for talent and current form they are a lot closer to the tournament's pace-setters.
In fact the Cheetahs comprehensively beat Australia's best team, the Brumbies, last week – while the Stormers upstaged another form side from Down Under, the Western Force.
Cheetahs coach Naka Drotské felt both teams are better than their lowly positions suggest.
"The one thing of Super Rugby this year is that the standings are very misleading," Drotské told rugby365.
"Teams who are 14th and 15th in the standings are beating teams in the top three.
"The Stormers [in 13th place, one behind the Cheetahs] are a quality team and we know we are in for a very tough game."
While their play-off dreams are now just a distant memory, their entertainment value is what is likely to draw a large crowd to Newlands – by that we mean close to a more acceptable 30,000 spectators.
Stormers coach Allister Coetzee have spoken all week about "lessons learnt" and Saturday will be a good examination of that theory.
"Last time out [in Bloemfontein last month] we gave the Cheetahs too much space when they ran the ball," Coetzee said of his team's famed defence that leaked five tries on the day.
"We allowed them to get into that space, which you cannot do against them – as they have players like Willie le Roux who will punish you.
"We must close up that space better than we did in Bloemfontein."
Drotské felt his team will be able to tap into the self-confidence gained from last week's impressive win over the Brumbies.
"It is always tough at Newlands, the Stormers are just so much better at their home ground," he told this website.
While the Stormers are playing a bit more expansive in recent weeks, they are unlikely to be as leaky on defence as they were earlier in the season.
"They have been working with the same [defensive] systems for the past four or five years, with Jacques Nienaber, so it remains tough to score tries against them," Drotské said, adding that the Cheetahs will not be changing their approach much.
"We're among the top three [shared third place] for tries scored," he said, adding: "Our defence has been a bit leaky this season, but we want to continue play with ball in hand."
Recent results:
2014: Cheetahs won 35-22, Bloemfontein
2013: Stormers won 28-3, Cape Town
2013: Cheetahs won 26-24, Bloemfontein
2012: Stormers won 13-6, Bloemfontein
2012: Stormers won 16-14, Cape Town
2011: Stormers won 44-34, Bloemfontein
Prediction: The Stormers have scored fewer points per game (17.5) than any other side this season and they also have the worst goal-kicking rate in the competition (67 percent). However, the Cheetahs have shipped more points (31.8) and tries (3.5) per game than any other side. In fact, the Cheetahs have leaked 20 more tries (45) than the Stormers (25) so far and are particularly vulnerable late in games. Willie Le Roux (958) has made the most metres this season, nobody else has made it past the 900 barrier just yet. This could be the most entertaining game of the weekend, given that both teams will have the freedom to play. If defence is not at a premium, it might just suit the Cheetahs – who could sneak a narrow win in a high-scoring affair – by seven points or less.
Teams:
Stormers: 15 Jaco Taute, 14 Damian de Allende, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Kurt Coleman, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Nizaam Carr, 5 Ruan Botha, 4 Michael Rhodes, 3 Pat Cilliers, 2 Deon Fourie, 1 Alistair Vermaak.
Replacements: 16 Stephan Coetzee, 17 Oliver Kebble, 18 Brok Harris, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 Siya Kolisi, 21 Dylon Frylinck, 22 Peter Grant, 23 Kobus van Wyk.
Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Rayno Benjamin, 11 Willie le Roux, 10 Johan Goosen, 9 Shaun Venter, 8 Johannes Prinsloo, 7 Teboho Mohoje, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Francois Uys, 4 Willem Serfontein, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Caylib Oosthuizen.
Replacements: 16 Torsten van Jaarsveld, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Nicolaas van Dyk, 19 Hilton Lobberts, 20 Carel Greeff, 21 Tian Meyer, 22 Elgar Watts, 23 Gouws Prinsloo.
Referee: Stuart Berry (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa), Quinton Immelman (South Africa)
TMO: Deon van Blommestein (South Africa)
