S18 Preview: ROUND 16, PART ONE
There is not a single game where the result will not have an impact on the standings and influence the play-off positions.
The Blues may not have a snowball's hope of reaching the play-offs, but they can certainly put a huge dent in the Brumbies' prospects and leave the front door wide open for the Waratahs to claim pole position in the Australian conference.
The Reds are in the same position. Out of the running for some time, but in a position to have a major impact on the most hotly contested conference in the competition – the Chiefs (first in the New Zealand conference), Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders, who are all separated by three points on the standings.
The table-topping Lions have the most to lose in the Friday matches when they host the hapless (or some would claim the hopeless) Southern Kings. The Lions would hope to take a full-house of five points from the match and go into the final round of league matches in a commanding position.
Their biggest threat, it seems is overconfidence – underestimating a Kings team sans seasoned campaigners like Steven Sykes and Schalk Ferreira, not to mention injured players like Cyril-John Velleman and Martin Ferreira.
Friday, June 7
Conditions are going to play a crucial role – as pre-match predictions suggest it will be wet and windy – with the Brumbies readily admitting that they may be forced to put boot to ball a bit more than usual.
The Brumbies, who are looking to turn a four-game winning streak into a five-game victory run, have struggled against New Zealand teams in the last two seasons.
They are currently on a three-game losing streak against New Zealand teams – the Brumbies' only positive result in their last six games against their cousins from across the Tasman Sea a 52-10 demolition of the Hurricanes in the opening round of the 2016 campaign.
The ACT team have conceded 111 points in their last three encounters with teams from across the ditch. Of those points, 53 were conceded in the opening half of fixtures to which they replied with only 23 points of their own.
However, the Brumbies are determined to ignore the historical data and solidify control of the Australian Conference with a win over the Blues.
Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham admitted conditions will "dictate how they play" on Friday.
"We are expecting a bit of rain and Eden Park can get a bit windy as well," Larkham told a media gathering in Canberra.
He said they expect the Blues to kick a bit more, but also bring their usual physical game.
"They do like their forward play, mauls and scrums, and we have to step up and make sure we are nice and physical in those contests."
He added that they spoke a lot this week about their defence.
Midfield playmaker Matt Toomua also spoke of the testing conditions and how the Brumbies will cope with it.
"We have to ensure we are nice and structured, and not run around like a bunch of scallywags," Toomua said.
"Our defence and discipline will need to be good and we also need to play down their end of the field."
Recent results:
2015: Blues won 16-14, Auckland
2014: Brumbies won 26-9, Canberra
2013: Brumbies won 20-13, Auckland
2012: Blues won 30-16, Canberra
2010: Blues won 39-34, Auckland
2009: Brumbies won 37-15, Canberra
Prediction: The Blues won the last meeting between the two sides. However, they lost four of their previous six against the Brumbies before that. The Auckland side have won six of their last eight at home against the Brumbies; the last four meetings in that run have seen the defeated side pick up a losing bonus point. The last three meetings between the Blues and the Brumbies have seen just 33 points scored per game on average; the three games prior to that had yielded an average of 57 points in total. The Blues' last six home games have all been won by margins of eight points or fewer with the Auckland side winning four of those fixtures. The Brumbies have won four away games this season, including three of their last four; a fifth away victory would be their most in the regular season since 2012. However the Canberra side have lost on each of their last four regular season trips to New Zealand, this after winning four in a row on their trips across the Tasman before that. The Blues have won 12 of their last 14 when hosting Australian sides, including each of the last five in a row; the last time they went on a longer winning streak at home to teams from Australia was between 2002 and 2007 when they won 11 on the bounce. The Blues enjoy exactly 18 minutes of possession per game this season, the most of any team in the competition and almost half a minute more than the second highest team in the competition, the Brumbies. Christian Lealiifano has kicked 77 percent of his attempts at goal, the most of any player who has made more than 50 attempts so far this season. David Pocock (23) and Scott Fardy (19) lead the tournament in turnovers won, having won significantly more than Blues best Blake Gibson (nine). It won't be pretty and will be close, but the Brumbies should squeeze out a win – by eight points or less.
Teams:
Blues: 15 Melani Nanai, 14 Matt Duffie, 13 Male Sa'u/Matt Vaega, 12 Piers Francis, 11 Tevita Li, 10 Ihaia West, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Steven Luatua, 7 Kara Pryor, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Josh Bekhuis/Scott Scrafton, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Ofa Tu'ungafasi, 2 James Parsons (captain), 1 Sam Prattley.
Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Nic Mayhew, 18 Sione Mafileo, 19 Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, 20 Blake Gibson, 21 Billy Guyton, 22 Matt Vaega/Michael Little, 23 Lolagi Visinia.
Brumbies: 15 Aidan Toua, 14 Nigel Ah Wong, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Toomua, 11 James Dargaville, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Tomás Cubelli, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Jarrad Butler, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore (captain), 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 Allan Alaalatoa, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Blake Enever, 20 Tom Staniforth, 21 Joe Powell, 22 Andrew Smith, 23 Lausii Taliauli.
Referee: Ben O'Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand), Jamie Nutbrown (New Zealand)
TMO: Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
The Chiefs are well aware that, as one of the competition favourites, they have a target on their collective backs.
And they are up against a Reds team that already caused one boilover of the season – when they edged the defending champions Highlanders 28-27 in April.
The Chiefs, who have opted to rest All Black star Brodie Retallick because of his heavy workload, will hope the return of Liam Messam will provide the inspiration.
Messam, who has missed out on Olympic selection with the national Sevens team, will look to unleash his frustrations on opponents in Super Rugby.
Reds interim head coach Matt O'Connor admitted they are up against a team "thinking about silverware".
"We are playing against the best team in the competition at home and for us it is a 'final'," O'Connor said.
"We will have to be at our very best to stay in the hunt."
The Reds expect the Chiefs challenge them in "every facet of the game".
"It is a daunting challenge because of the pace they play at and how solid their game is across the board," the coach said.
"Every facet of our game will have to be very accurate."
The Reds, stuck in 15th position after a poor season that has yielded just three wins from 13 starts, are still working hard to salvage something from the disastrous campaign that saw coach Richard Graham axed just two rounds into the competition.
"The desire in the environment to work hard is the most pleasing thing," said O'Connor – one of two interim coaches.
"That is how you get better, by working on your game," he said, adding: "The guys understand we've had deficiencies and have tried to be better.
"We understand that moving forward we don't deliver the same errors.
"From that aspect it has been pretty pleasing."
Recent results:
2015: Chiefs won 24-3, Brisbane
2013: Reds won 31-23, Hamilton
2012: Reds won 42-27, Brisbane
2011: Reds won 19-11, Hamilton
2010: Reds won 23-18, Hamilton
2009: Chiefs won 50-26, Brisbane
Prediction: The Reds lost the last meeting between these sides, in Round 17 last season. However, they won each of the four fixtures between the two before that. The Chiefs have won three of the last four meetings between the sides in Queensland, this after winning just once in five attempts away to the Reds in Super Rugby before that. The Reds have won their last three at home, but have not won four consecutive home matches in a single season since their last four regular season home games in 2012. The Chiefs have scored 23 more tries than they've conceded this year, the largest positive disparity of any team in the competition and 40 higher than the Reds disparity (-17). The Reds back rower Hendrik Tui has stolen five line-outs so far this season, the fifth most of any player and more than any other Australian-based player. Expect the Chiefs to pull clear in the final quarter and win by about 15 points.
Teams:
Reds: 15 Jack Tuttle, 14 Chris Kuridrani, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Henry Taefu, 11 Eto Nabuli, 10 Duncan Paia'aua, 9 Nick Frisby, 8 Curtis Browning, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Hendrik Tui, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Cadeyrn Neville, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 Andrew Ready, 1 James Slipper (captain).
Replacements: 16 Matt Mafi, 17 Sef Fa'agase, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Lukhan Tui, 20 Leroy Houston, 21 James Tuttle, 22 Anthony Fainga'a, 23 Campbell Magnay.
Chiefs: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Toni Pulu, 13 Seta Tamanivalu, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 James Lowe, 10 Aaron Cruden (co-captain), 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Sam Cane (co-captain), 7 Lachlan Boshier, 6 Tom Sanders, 5 Taleni Seu, 4 Dominic Bird, 3 Atu Moli, 2 Nathan Harris, 1 Kane Hames.
Replacements: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Siegfried Fisi'ihoi, 18 Siate Tokolahi, 19 Mitchell Brown, 20 Liam Messam, 21 Brad Weber, 22 Andrew Horrell, 23 Sam McNicol.
Referee: Nick Briant (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Nic Berry (Australia), Jordan Way (Australia)
TMO: Damien Mitchelmore (Australia)
The biggest threat to the Lions is complacency not the Southern Kings.
Yes, the Kings will be willing and will throw everything (including the kitchen sink) at the Lions.
However, the chasm in the difference of the class of the two sides will mean that only if the Lions don't pitch mentally will the Kings win.
"The biggest threat is if the players believe the public talk [about the Kings being a weak team]," captain Jaco Kriel said, when asked about the favourites tag now attached to the table-topping Lions.
"The people are entitled to their opinions, but as a group we will not alter our preparation from any other week or team.
"It does not matter who we are facing, our preparation will be unchanged."
"We are always looking to improve ourselves, and we will continue doing that because we are not changing that routine.
"We will continue to work hard and prepare as we do every week – we certainly won't underestimate the Kings."
Kriel admitted that if the Lions are not mentally ready for the game, they will be in trouble.
"The big challenge for us is to be mentally up for this game and pitch up on the day."
Coach Johan Ackermann, who named his best available team, said it is important to get the win and retain their position at the top of the competition's totem pole.
"It is going to be tough for the Springboks, as we are asking for another game from them," Ackermann said.
"We believe mentally they are ready for that challenge.
"However, if I rest a player this week, it means I have to play him next week [against the Jaguares] and then it includes travelling [to Buenos Aires].
"I would rather have that option [of resting key players] next week. Some of the games this weekend will give us an indication [what to do next week].
"We must first get a victory this week and after that we can look at Saturday's games and make a call on Sunday."
Previous result:
2016: Lions won 45-10, Port Elizabeth
Prediction: This will be just the second official meeting between these sides in Super Rugby (the 2013 promotion-relegation series excluded); the Lions defeated the Kings 45-10 in their first meeting, in April this year. The Kings are searching for their second away win in Super Rugby; they've lost each of their last 10 with those defeats coming by an average margin of 30 points. The Lions have won their last four Super Rugby games, a fifth straight win would equal the franchise record winning streak in the competition. The Lions have starved their opposition of possession so far this season, allowing their opponents only 13 minutes and 13 seconds with the ball in hand each game, the fewest of any team. Kings lock John-Charles Astle has won 60 line-outs so far this season, including three last week, the fourth most of any player after 15 rounds in 2016. The Kings might keep it close for the first half, but by the end the Lions should have a winning margin of 30 points or more.
Teams:
Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Rohan Janse Van Rensburg, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Francois de Klerk, 8 Ruan Ackermann, 7 Warwick Tecklenburg, 6 Jaco Kriel (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Andries Ferreira, 3 Julian Redelinghuys, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Dylan Smith.
Replacements: 16 Armand van der Merwe, 17 Corne Fourie, 18 Jacques van Rooyen, 19 Lourens Erasmus, 20 Cyle Brink, 21 Ross Cronje, 22 Howard Mnisi, 23 Sylvian Mahuza.
Southern Kings: 15 Malcolm Jaer, 14 Lukhanyo Am, 13 Stefan Watermeyer, 12 Shane Gates, 11 Wandile Mjekevu, 10 Louis Fouche, 9 James Hall, 8 Aidon Davis, 7 Stefan Willemse, 6 Andisa Ntsila, 5 John-Charles Astle, 4 Schalk Oelofse, 3 Jacobie Adriaanse, 2 Edgar Marutlulle (captain), 1 Sithembiso Sithole.
Replacements: 16 Martin Bezuidenhout, 17 Schalk Ferreira, 18 Tom Botha, 19 Sintu Manjezi, 20 Jacques Engelbrecht, 21 Ntando Kebe, 22 Dewald Human, 23 Jeremy Ward.
Referee: Jaco van Heerden (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Jaco Peyper(South Africa), Ben Crouse(South Africa)
TMO: Johan Greeff (South Africa)
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
* Statistical information provided by Opta Sports
