Super Rugby Aotearoa - predictions and teams: Round Five
BIG NORTH-SOUTH DERBY: Some rugby rivalries are just bigger than most. In South Africa it is Cape Town versus Pretoria. In New Zealand it is Christchurch against Auckland.
The build-up to Saturday’s top-of-table clash between the Crusaders and the Blues has reached fever pitch.
Addington Showgrounds are expected to be packed to its 18,000 capacity – especially since no precipitation is expected. Not even the frosty 3°C temperature will deter the fans from flocking to the venue.
The revival of the Blues, under the coaching guidance of Leon MacDonald, is a major contributing factor to the interest in Saturday’s derby.
Crusaders coach Scott Robertson, a former teammate of MacDonald, was lavish with the plaudits.
“Leon is a great coach, that’s why I had him in my All Blacks coaching group,” said Robertson told stuff.co.nz of his failed attempt to get the national coaching job.
“I knew he was world-class and knew he would turn the team [Blues] around.
“They’ve done extremely well with a lot of the local guys in there and it shows work ethic and how much care they have in their group and organisation.”
The three-times Super Rugby-winning coach, Robertson, said the ere was a real ‘buzz’ around Christchurch.
Blues forwards coach Tom Coventry played down the Auckland team’s impressive form this year.
“We’re just keeping our heads clear, making sure we keep our feet on the ground,” Coventry told stuff.co.nz.
“We understand it’s a big challenge, going down to Christchurch.”
Coventry wants his side to be more clinical.
“[We need to] make sure that when we’ve got possession we can look after the ball.”
The weekend’s other match, in Wellington on Sunday, will see the Hurricanes host the Highlanders – both teams desperate not to lose any more ground on the front-runners.
This week’s predictions
Saturday, July 11
Crusaders v Blues
(Addington Showgrounds, Christchurch – Kick-off: 19.05; 07.05 GMT)
The Crusaders have won their last 11 consecutive Super Rugby games against the Blues.
Their last defeat to the Auckland franchise came in Round Three, 2014.
The Crusaders are undefeated in their last 35 Super Rugby games played as hosts (34 wins and one draw). Their last defeat at home came in Round 17, 2016 against the Hurricanes.
The Blues have won their last seven Super Rugby games on the bounce. The last and only previous time they won more in succession was a 12-game stretch during an undefeated 1997 campaign.
The Crusaders have scored (12) more tries and conceded (four) fewer tries than any other team during Super Rugby Aotearoa. In fact, they have conceded just two tries before the 60th minute of games so far this campaign.
The Blues’ comprise three of the five players to have made multiple line-out steals so far in Super Rugby Aotearoa, with Hoskins Sotutu, Patrick Tuipulotu, and Tom Robinson each snatching two wins against the throw this season.
Predictions
@rugby365com: Crusaders by 10 points
Teams
Crusaders: 15 David Havili, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Braydon Ennor, 12 Jack Goodhue, 11 George Bridge, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Whetukamokamo Douglas, 7 Tom Christie, 6 Tom Sanders, 5 Mitchell Dunshea, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Codie Taylor (captain), 1 Joe Moody.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Makalio, 17 George Bower, 18 Oli Jager, 19 Quinten Strange, 20 Sione Havili, 21 Mitchell Drummond, 22 Fetuli Paea, 23 Will Jordan.
Blues: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Mark Telea, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Harry Plummer, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Otere Black, 9 Finlay Christie; 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Dalton Papalii, 6 Akira Ioane, 5 Josh Goodhue, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu (captain), 3 Ofa Tuungafasi, 2 James Parsons, 1 Alex Hodgman.
Replacements: 16 Kurt Eklund, 17 Karl Tu’inukuafe, 18 Sione Mafileo, 19 Aaron Carroll, 20 Blake Gibson, 21 Jonathan Ruru, 22 Thomas Faiane, 23 Matt Duffie.
Referee: Paul Williams
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keeffe, James Doleman
TMO: Mike Fraser
Sunday, July 12
Hurricanes v Highlanders
(Wellington Regional Stadium, Wellington – Kick-off: 15.35; 03.35 GMT)
Eighteen of the last 22 Super Rugby clashes between the Hurricanes and Highlanders have been decided by a margin of seven points or fewer, including their last two meetings on the bounce.
The Hurricanes have lost their last two Super Rugby games on home turf. The last time they lost more in succession at home was four-game stretch across the 2013 and 2014 campaigns.
The Highlanders have scored the opening try of the game in each of their last two Super Rugby meetings with the Hurricanes, after doing so only once in nine meetings prior. However, they’ve gone on to lose their last two encounters with the Hurricanes.
The Highlanders boast a 94 percent success rate at the line-out so far in Super Rugby Aotearoa, the highest of any team in the competition – indeed, they are the only team to have lost fewer than one line-out per game (0.7) on their own throw.
Ngani Laumape (Hurricanes) has crossed for five tries in his last five Super Rugby games against the Highlanders, including three tries in his last two appearances against them.
Predictions
@rugby365com: Hurricanes by seven points
Teams
Hurricanes: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Kobus van Wyk, 13 Vince Aso, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Ben Lam, 10 Fletcher Smith, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Devan Flanders, 5 Scott Scrafton, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Asafo Aumua, 1 Ben May.
Replacements: 16 Ricky Riccitelli, 17 Pouri Rakete-Stones, 18 Alex Fidow, 19 Vaea Fifita, 20 Murphy Taramai, 21 Jamie Booth, 22 Billy Proctor, 23 Wes Goosen.
Highlanders: 15 Michael Collins, 14 Scott Gregory, 13 Rob Thompson, 12 Sio Tomkinson, 11 Jona Nareki, 10 Mitch Hunt, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Marino Mikaele Tu’u, 7 Dillon Hunt, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Jack Whetton, 4 Pari Pari Parkinson, 3 Siate Tokolahi, 2 Ash Dixon, 1 Ayden Johnstone.
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18 Jeff Thwaites, 19 Manaaki Selby-Rickit, 20 Jesse Parete, 21 Kayne Hammington, 22 Bryn Gatland, 23 Teariki Ben-Nicholas.
Bye: Chiefs
* Stats provided by Opta Sports
