Super Rugby Aotearoa, Round Three - Teams and Predictions

SOUTH AFRICAN INFLUENCE: While Super Rugby Aotearoa has thrilled fans globally, there is no doubt that there’s less diversity in the competition since contracting from 15 teams from across South America, Africa and Australasia to just five Kiwi sides.

That’s because the New Zealand teams tend more towards a run-first mentality – as opposed to the forward play and heavy kicking that dominated the South African sides’ game plans.

Speaking ahead of the Highlanders’ clash with the Blues at Eden Park, however, Highlanders assistant coach and former All Black Clarke Dermody has suggested that there might be a little bit of a South African influence to the way the Auckland-based side are currently playing the game.

“It’s like preparing for a South African team without the South Africans in the competition,” he said.

“They’re a massive pack, [they do] a lot of kicking. Our challenge is to match them up-front and not get drawn into that game. They want to be walking from set-piece to set-piece, so we’ll try to speed the game up.”

The Blues recruited All Blacks prop Nepo Laulala from the Chiefs in the off-season to add to their already considerable depth in the front row.

Fellow All Black Ofa Tuungafasi is now in his ninth season of Super Rugby while Alex Hodgman made the step up to the national side last year. Karl Tu’inukuafe, meanwhile, was brought north from the Chiefs following a breakout season in 2018, giving the Blues four All Blacks props.

Add Samoan international James Lay to the mix, and it’s easy to see why Dermody – himself a former All Blacks prop – might see the Blues’ front row as a threat.

With the likes of Otere Black, Stephen Perofeta and Harry Plummer all capable of stepping into the first receiver role, the Blues also have ample kicking options throughout any given match. Against the Hurricanes in the opening round of this year’s competition, all three started across the backline.

While the Highlanders’ Josh Ioane and Mitch Hunt can mix it with the best playmakers in the country, the southern side certainly don’t have quite the same depth at prop as their Auckland counterparts.

Daniel Lienert-Brown, who suffered a broken arm against the Chiefs, won’t be back anytime soon while Australian import Jermaine Ainsley is out for the season. That leaves the Highlanders with few experienced options heading into Sunday’s match – but it’s a challenge the side will relish.

While both sides are undefeated ahead of the round three clash, the Highlanders are conscious that letting their opposition run out to a big lead on Sunday might not yield as positive an end result as it did last weekend when they recovered from a 6-20 deficit to beat the Chiefs 39-23.

“It’s not an ideal situation,” Dermody said. “We showed awesome character to come back from that [against the Chiefs], but we don’t want to be there against the Blues.”

In the weekend’s other match is also the first match as the Chiefs have the daunting task of having to face the Crusaders in Christchurch on Saturday.

Chiefs head coach Clayton McMillan acknowledging the calibre of the defending champions.

“The Crusaders have set the benchmark for a number of years now.” he said.

“They have a well-balanced team with plenty of experience and a good group of young talent. We know they are hard to beat at home, when you play down there you don’t win unless you deliver an 80-minute performance.”

We take a closer look at Round Three’s matches!

Saturday, March 13:

Crusaders v Chiefs
(Addington Showgrounds, Christchurch – Kick-off: 19.05; 06.05 GMT)

The Crusaders have won seven of their last nine Super Rugby games against the Chiefs (L2), including each of their last two meetings.

The Crusaders have won their last four Super Rugby home games on the bounce against the Chiefs, scoring 36.8 points per game in that stretch.

The Chiefs have lost their last four Super Rugby away games, the last time they recorded a longer losing run on the road was a seven-match span from March 2010 to April 2011.

The Chiefs made 12 clean breaks in their Round Two defeat to the Highlanders in the 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign; the last time they made more in a single game against fellow New Zealand opposition was in Round 16, 2019 against the Crusaders (23).

Ethan Blackadder (Crusaders) has made 20 tackles throughout his two games in the 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign, the most of any player yet to miss a single attempt.

Prediction

@rugby365com: Crusaders by 17 points.

Teams:

Crusaders: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 David Havili, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Mitchell Drummond, 8 Cullen Grace, 7 Tom Christie, 6 Sione Havili Talitui, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 George Bower.
Replacements: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 Joe Moody, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Mitchell Dunshea, 20 Whetukamokamo Douglas, 21 Bryn Hall, 22 Fergus Burke, 23 Dallas McLeod.

Chiefs: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Shaun Stevenson, 13 Sean Wainui, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Etene Nanai-Seturo, 10 Bryn Gatland, 9 Brad Weber (co-captain), 8 Luke Jacobson, 7 Sam Cane (co-captain), 6 Mitchell Brown, 5 Josh Lord, 4 Tupou Vaa’i, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Reuben O’Neill.
Replacements: 16 Bradley Slater, 17 Aidan Ross, 18 Sione Mafileo, 19 Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 20 Kaylum Boshier, 21 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Chase Tiatia.

Referee: James Doleman
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill, Ben O’Keeffe
TMO: Paul Williams

Sunday, March 14:

Blues v Highlanders
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 15.35; 02.35 GMT)

The Blues have won each of their last two Super Rugby games against the Highlanders, as many as they won in their nine meetings prior (L7).

The Highlanders will be hunting for back-to-back Super Rugby wins for the first time since Round 11, 2019 after a come-from-behind win against the Chiefs in Round Two of this Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign.

The Blues have won their last four completed Super Rugby home games on the bounce, the last time they enjoyed a longer winning run on home turf was a five-match span from February to May in 2014.

Liam Squire (Highlanders) is set to play his 50th Super Rugby game and his sixth against the Blues; he has completed 35/37 tackles against the Auckland team in his career.

Jona Nareki has gained 138 metres per game this Super Rugby season, 47 metres more than any other player; the Highlanders’ flyer scored a hat-trick of tries and ran for a Super Rugby Aotearoa record 192m in his side’s Round 2 win over the Chiefs.

Prediction

@rugby465com: Blues by 13 points.

Teams:

Blues: 15 Stephen Perofeta, 14 Mark Telea, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Harry Plummer, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Otere Black, 9 Jonathan Ruru; 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Dalton Papalii, 6 Akira Ioane, 5Sam Darry, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu (captain), 3 Ofa Tuungafasi, 2 Luteru Tolai, 1 Karl Tu’inukuafe.
Replacements: 16 Kurt Eklund, 17 James Lay, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, 20 Tom Robinson, 21 Sam Nock, 22 Tanielu Tele’a, 23 Emoni Narawa.

Highlanders: 15 Connor Garden-Bachop, 14 Ngatugnane Punivai, 13 Michael Collins, 12 Patelesio Tomkinson, 11 Jona Nareki, 10 Josh Ioane, 9 Aaron Smith (co-captain), 8 Hugh Renton, 7 James Lentjes, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Manaaki Selby-Rickit, 4 Josh Dickson, 3 Siate Tokolahi, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Ethan De Groot.
Replacements: 16 Ash Dixon (co-captain), 17 Josh Hohneck, 18 Jeff Thwaites, 19 Bryn Evans, 20 Marino Mikaele Tu’u, 21 Folau Fakatava, 22 Mitch Hunt, 23 Billy Harmon.

Referee: Mike Fraser
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill, Ben O’Keeffe
TMO: Paul Williams

Sources: @RugbyPass (Sam Smith) & SANZAAR Media

*Stats courtesy of Stats Perform