Super Rugby Trans-Tasman, Round One - Teams and Predictions
AUSSIES V KIWIS: Queensland Reds coach Brad Thorn insists his men can be competitive against New Zealand’s heavyweight sides, despite bookmakers all but writing off the chances of Australian teams when the new Super Rugby Trans-Tasman tournament kicks off Friday.
The James O’Connor-led Reds enjoyed an incredible domestic Super Rugby AU season, losing just one from eight before a thrilling 19-16 come-from-behind win against the Brumbies in last weekend’s final.
But they must step up to another level in the 10-team tournament, which pits Australian and New Zealand franchises against each other for the first time since the pandemic hastened the demise of the old Super Rugby competition which also featured teams from South Africa, Argentina and Japan.
Five teams from Australia and five from New Zealand will play each other over five weekends before a final on June 19, after a quarantine-free travel corridor was opened between the two nations last month.
Whether the competition can get to the decider remains to be seen, with any new outbreaks of Covid-19 in Australia or New Zealand having the potential to disrupt the event.
The mighty Crusaders, who secured a fifth Super Rugby crown in a row when they beat Chiefs 24-13 to win their domestic title last weekend, are hot favourites and begin at home in Christchurch on Saturday against the Brumbies.
Codie Taylor will captain the side in his 100th game, with regular skipper Scott Barrett on the bench.
The Australian champion Reds are longer odds to win the tournament with bookmakers than any of their New Zealand sides, but coach Thorn says his side will be up for the battle.
‘Come out swinging’
“Styles make fights, they say in boxing, and ours goes well with theirs,” Thorn said before the Reds’ opener against the Highlanders in Dunedin on Friday.
“Learning how to win has been great but we’ve always been competitive with the New Zealand styles.
“We know we won’t be highly rated in New Zealand, but that’s our bread and butter.”
The Waratahs host Australia’s first match against the Hurricanes in Sydney on Friday.
They are desperate for a win after a horror domestic campaign where they crashed in every game.
They face a Hurricanes side who won twice as they propped up the Super Rugby Aotearoa ladder.
Interim Waratahs coach Jason Gilmore admitted his side might struggle against the New Zealanders, but said writing off Australian teams could backfire.
“If you’re the underdog going in, no one expects anything of you and it’s a perfect position for the Australian teams to come out swinging in those first couple of rounds,” he told reporters.
The Melbourne Rebels meet the Auckland Blues in Melbourne and Perth’s Western Force take on the Chiefs in Perth to round out the weekend action.
Two law innovations used during the domestic tournaments have been carried over – goal-line drop-outs and the ability to replace red-carded players after 20 minutes, both of us which proved popular.
We take a closer look at the matches in Round One!
Friday, May 14:
Highlanders v Reds
(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – Kick-off: 19.05; 17.05 AEST; 07.05 GMT)
The Highlanders have won their last three consecutive Super Rugby games against the Queensland Reds, as many as they had won in their 10 meetings prior (L7); however, they have never won more than three consecutive Super Rugby games against them.
Seven of the Highlanders’ last eight Super Rugby games against Australian opposition have been decided by a margin of fewer than 10 points on the day; the Highlanders have picked up five wins in that term (L3).
The Queensland Reds have won only one of their last 17 Super Rugby games against New Zealand opposition (L16) – a 29-28 win over the Blues in Round 17, 2019.
Only nine of the Queensland Reds’ missed tackles in Super Rugby in 2021 have directly resulted in a try being scored, the fewest of any team and 13 fewer than the Highlanders (22).
Shannon Frizell (Highlanders) made 96 carries and 67 tackles throughout the 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign; he was the only player to log 65+ in both categories.
Prediction
@rugby365com: Highlanders by five points.
Teams:
Highlanders: 15 Sam Gilbert, 14 Palelei Tomkinson, 13 Michael Collins, 12 Scott Gregory, 11 Jona Nareki, 10 Mitch Hunt, 9 Aaron Smith (co-captain), 8 Kazuki Himeno, 7 Billy Harmon, 6 Hugh Renton, 5 Josh Dickson, 4 Pari Pari Parkinson, 3 Siate Tokolahi, 2 Ash Dixon (co-captain), 1 Ayden Johnstone.
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Ethan De Groot, 18 Josh Hohneck, 19 Bryn Evans, 20 James Lentjes, 21 Kayne Hammington, 22 Tim O’Malley, 23 Ngatugnane Punivai.
Queensland Reds: 15 Bryce Hegarty, 14 Filipo Daugunu, 13 Josh Flook, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Jock Campbell, 10 James O’Connor 9 Kalani Thomas, 8 Seru Uru, 7 Liam Wright, 6 Angus Scott-Young, 5 Angus Blyth, 4 Ryan Smith, 3 Feao Fotuaika, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Dane Zander.
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Harry Hoopert, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Fraser McReight, 21 Moses Sorovi, 22 Isaac Henry, 23 Suliasi Vunivalu.
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe
Assistant referees: James Doleman & Angus Maybe
TMO: Mike Fraser
Waratahs v Hurricanes
(Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney – Kick-off: 19.45; 21.45 NZST; 09.45 GMT)
The Hurricanes have won five of their last seven Super Rugby games against the Waratahs (L2), including their last three on the bounce; they have never won more than three consecutive games against the Waratahs.
The Waratahs lost all eight of their games in the 2021 Super Rugby AU season and will be looking to avoid a franchise record-equalling ninth consecutive loss in Super Rugby (L9 – April 2012 to February 2013).
The Hurricanes have won 15 of their last 16 Super Rugby games against Australian opposition (L1); in fact, their overall win rate of 64 percent against Australian opposition is the third-highest of any non-Australian team (Jaguares 79 percent, Crusaders 72 percent).
The Hurricanes have made a clean break once every 10 carries this year in Super Rugby, the most frequent of any team, while the Waratahs have done so only once every 15 carries.
Jack Maddocks (Waratahs) has made 46 carries from within his own half in Super Rugby this year, the second-most of any player (Tom Banks – 52) and six more than Hurricanes’ best Jordie Barrett (40).
Prediction
@rugby365com: Hurricanes by 12 points.
Teams:
Waratahs: 15 Jack Maddocks, 14 Alex Newsome, 13 Izaia Perese, 12 Lalakai Foketi, 11 Mark Nawaqanitawase, 10 Ben Donaldson, 9 Jake Gordon (captain), 8 Will Harris, 7 Charlie Gamble, 6 Lachlan Swinton, 5 Max Douglas, 4 Hugh Sinclair, 3 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 2 David Porecki, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Joe Cotton, 17 Te Tera Faulkner, 18 Darcy Breen, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Jack Grant, 22 Will Harrison, 23 Tepai Moeroa.
Hurricanes: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Julian Savea, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Peter Umaga-Jensen, 11 Salesi Rayasi, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Luke Campbell, 8 Devan Flanders, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Reed Prinsep, 5 Isaia Walker-Leawere, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Alex Fidow, 2 Dane Coles (captain), 1 Xavier Numia.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Tevita Mafileo, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Liam Mitchell, 20 Brayden Iose, 21 Jonathan Taumateine, 22 Orbyn Leger, 23 Pepesana Patafilo.
Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Amy Perrett, Angus Gardner
TMO: James Leckie
Saturday, May 15:
Crusaders v Brumbies
(Addington Showgrounds, Christchurch – Kick-off: 19.05; 17.05 AEST; 07.05 GMT)
The Crusaders have won their last nine consecutive Super Rugby fixtures against the Brumbies; their last defeat to the team from the Australian Capital Territory came in Round Two, 2009 (18-16).
The Crusaders have won 19 of their last 20 Super Rugby games against Australian opposition (L1), including their last four on the bounce.
The Brumbies have won their last three consecutive regular season games outside Australia in Super Rugby; the last and only time they won more in succession was a five-game stretch from May 1999 to May 2000.
The Brumbies scored five tries from mauls in the 2021 Super Rugby AU season, as many as were scored in the entire 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa competition in total (Crusaders 2, Chiefs 2, Blues 1).
Richie Mo’unga (Crusaders) has beaten 39 defenders in Super Rugby this year, four more than any other player and 12 more than Brumbies’ best Andy Muirhead (27).
Prediction:
@rugby365com: Crusaders by 15 points.
Teams:
Crusaders: 15 George Bridge, 14 Manasa Mataele, 13 Braydon Ennor, 12 David Havili, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Cullen Grace, 7 Tom Sanders, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Mitchell Dunshea, 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Codie Taylor (captain), 1 George Bower.
Replacements: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Oliver Jager, 19 Scott Barrett, 20 Brendon O’Connor, 21 Ereatara Enari, 22 Fergus Burke, 23 Sevu Reece.
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Solomone Kata, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Ryan Lonergan, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Rory Scott, 6 Henry Stowers, 5 Nick Frost, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Lachlan Lonergan, 17 Harry Lloyd, 18 Tom Ross, 19 Tom Hooper, 20 Luke Reimer, 21 Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, 22 Reesjan Pasitoa, 23 Mack Hansen.
Referee: Paul Williams
Assistant referees: James Doleman, Dan Waenga
TMO: Glenn Newman
Melbourne Rebels v Blues
(Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, Melbourne – Kick-off: 19.45; 21.45 NZST; 09.45 GMT)
The Rebels will be looking to log back-to-back wins against the Blues for the first time in Super Rugby after picking up a 20-10 win when they last met (Round 16, 2018).
The Rebels have won only three of their last 19 Super Rugby games against New Zealand opposition (L16); although, they will be looking for consecutive wins against New Zealand teams for the first time since May 2015 after picking up a 28-22 win against the Highlanders in their last such fixture (February 2020).
The Blues have won six of their last eight Super Rugby games in Australia (L2); a period across which they have led at half-time in every game on the day.
The Rebels have won seven turnovers per game in Super Rugby in 2021, the most of any team and one per game more than the Blues (6).
Dalton Papali’i (Blues) has made three clean breaks within the opening 10 minutes of games in Super Rugby in 2021, the joint-most of any player alongside the Brumbies’ Pete Samu.
Prediction:
@rugby365com: Blues by 12 points.
Teams:
Melbourne Rebels: 15 Tom Pincus, 14 Frank Lomani, 13 Stacey Ili, 12 Campbell Magnay, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Matt To’omua, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Josh Kemeny, 5 Ross Haylett-Petty, 4 Rob Leota, 3 Cabous Eloff, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Cameron Orr.
Replacements: 16 James Hanson, 17 Matt Gibbon, 18 Lucio Sordoni, 19 Steve Cummins, 20 Michael Icely, 21 James Tuttle, 22 Carter Gordon, 23 Lachie Anderson.
Blues: 15 Zarn Sullivan, 14 Bryce Heem, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 TJ Faiane, 11 AJ Lam, 10 Otere Black, 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Adrian Choat, 6 Tom Robinson (captain), 5 Josh Goodhue, 4 Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, 3 Marcel Renata, 2 Kurt Eklund, 1 Karl Tu’inukuafe.
Replacements: 16 Soane Vikena, 17 Ofa Tuungafasi, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Jacob Pierce, 20 Akira Ioane, 21 Sam Nock, 22 Harry Plummer, 23 Mark Telea.
Referee: Brendon Pickerill
Assistant referees: Amy Perrett, Reuben Keane
TMO: Ian Smith
Western Force v Chiefs
(Perth Oval, Perth – Kick-off: 19.55; 23.55 NZST; 11.55 GMT)
The Chiefs have won nine of their 11 previous Super Rugby games against the Western Force (L2), including their last three on the bounce; although, both of their defeats against them came when playing away from home on the day.
The Western Force have won their last two Super Rugby games at home and will be looking for a third consecutive home win for the first time since winning five home games on the bounce from March to May in 2014.
The Chiefs have won six of their last seven Super Rugby away games against Australian opposition (L1), including a come-from-behind win against the Waratahs in their last such fixture (51-14, March 2020).
No team has conceded fewer turnovers within the opening 10 minutes of game time in Super Rugby in 2021 than either the Western Force (11) or the Chiefs (11).
Damian McKenzie (Chiefs) has scored two tries, made two try assists, six clean breaks, and seven offloads across his last two Super Rugby games against the Western Force.
Prediction
@rugby365com: Chiefs by seven points.
Teams:
Chiefs: 15 Chase Tiatia, 14 Shaun Stevenson, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Jonah Lowe, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Brad Weber, 8 Luke Jacobson, 7 Lachlan Boshier, 6 Pita Gus Sowakula, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Nathan Harris, 1 Aidan Ross.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Ollie Norris, 18 Joe Apikotoa, 19 Zane Kapeli, 20 Liam Messam, 21 Xavier Roe, 22 Bryn Gatland, 23 Bailyn Sullivan.
Western Force: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Richard Kahui, 13 Kyle Godwin (captain), 12 Henry Taefu, 11 Jordan Olowofela, 10 Jake McIntyre, 9 Tomás Cubelli, 8 Brynard Stander, 7 Kane Koteka, 6 Tim Anstee, 5 Fergus Lee-Warner, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Santiago Medrano, 2 Feleti Kaitu’u, 1 Tom Robertson.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Angus Wagner, 18 Greg Holmes, 19 Ryan McCauley, 20 Ollie Callan, 21 Ian Prior, 22 Domingo Miotti, 23 Jake Strachan.
Referee: Damon Murphy
Assistant referees: Graham Cooper, Jordan Way
TMO: Brett Cronan.
Source: AFP & SANZAAR
Statistical information provided by Opta Data
