Super Rugby Pacific, Play-offs - teams and predictions
PREVIEW: A rejuvenated Crusaders face Queensland Reds to kick off the Super Rugby play-offs on Friday, with the New Zealand side chasing an eighth title in nine years after a disastrous 2024.
The Christchurch-based Crusaders won seven straight titles under head coach Scott Robertson but endured a torrid season last year after he left to take charge of the All Blacks.
The Crusaders won only four games and failed to make the play-offs under new mentor Rob Penney.
A year on, the Crusaders finished in second place, giving them home advantage against the Reds as they seek a semifinal berth.
The Crusaders have won 13 of their past 14 matches against the Reds, and three of four finals matches between the two teams.
When the sides met earlier this year in round four, the Crusaders won 43-19.
The Crusaders have never lost a play-off match at home, but head coach Rob Penney says history counts for nothing.
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“We do have a great playoff history at home, but this is a different season, and we need to show up this week,” says Penney.
Fullback Will Jordan is back, while captain David Havili returns at centre, the pair among 10 All Blacks in the Crusaders’ starting 15.
Former Reds playmaker James O’Connor, hunting a feel-good Wallabies recall ahead of the British and Irish Lions series, will come off the bench.
“This is a strong team, and I can’t wait to unleash them come Friday,” coach Penney added.
Harry Wilson has been named to start for the Queensland Reds.
The incumbent Wallabies captain looked at long odds to play when he ran off in obvious pain late in Saturday’s defeat of the Fijian Drua, just two games into his return from a fractured arm.
But precautionary scans cleared Wilson to return to training this week.
The influential No.8 trained on Tuesday and has been named to start in what is forecast to be a cold, wet Friday-night encounter.
Wilson starred when the Reds ended a 25-year winning drought in Christchurch last year.
He has always been highly rated across the ditch, earning glowing praise from then Crusaders coach Robertson, now helming the All Blacks, after his 2020 Super Rugby debut.
“It’s really pleasing news for us, but more importantly, for Harry. He’s come through the early part of the week well,” head coach Les Kiss said.
“He’s a true competitor when it comes to battles against the New Zealand sides and their top back rows.”
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Chiefs finished top and they face the defending champions Blues in Hamilton on Saturday, knowing – win or lose – they are guaranteed to make the semifinals.
As the number one-ranked side, they have a guaranteed lifeline in a revamped finals system that sees the round’s three winners and the highest-seeded loser progress to the final four.
The Chiefs were by far the best side during the regular season, winning matches by an average of more than 24 points per game.
Coach Clayton McMillan will leave the Chiefs after the Final as he heads to Ireland to coach Munster.
The Chiefs are looking to recapture their glory days of 2012 and 2013 when they won back-to-back titles, having lost in the final three times since, including last year to the Blues.
The Auckland side only just scraped into the play-offs on the final weekend and were well beaten by the Chiefs twice during the regular season.
The final play-off on Saturday sees the Hurricanes travel to Canberra to face the third-seeded Brumbies.
The Hurricanes are undefeated in their last six Super Rugby matches, coming from behind at half-time in three of those matches.
But the Brumbies have won three of the five previous play-off encounters between the sides.
In the only change to the starting side, Feao Fotuaika, who scored in the 31-33 loss to the Crusaders, will make way for Allan Alaalatoa and return to the bench, bumping Rhys Van Nek out of the squad.
Brumbies head coach Stephan Larkham said his team wanted a better first half after trailing the Crusaders 14-25 at halftime, a similar situation to their last clash with the Hurricanes, which they also lost.
He said with the Kiwi teams playing a similar fast and physical style, the Brumbies would be ready.
“They’re a physical side, the contests at the breakdown are very similar to Crusaders,” Larkham said.
“They’re very good with the ball in hand, they’ve got dangerous threats around the ruck … and they’ve got the ability to shift the ball quite well.
“We’ve come across teams that play this way a few times this year and hopefully that’s put us in a good position to play well this weekend.”
Teams and predictions below…
Preliminary play-offs’
Friday, June 6
Crusaders v Reds
(Rugby League Park, Christchurch – Kick-off: 19.05; 17.05 AEST; 07.05 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Crusaders by 15 points
Teams:
Crusaders: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Chay Fihaki, 13 Braydon Ennor, 12 David Havili (captain), 11 Sevu Reece, 10 Rivez Reihana, 9 Noah Hotham, 8 Christian Lio-Willie, 7 Tom Christie, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 5 Antonio Shalfoon, 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Tamaiti Williams.
Replacements: 16 George Bell, 17 George Bower, 18 Kershawl Sykes-Martin, 19 Tahlor Cahill, 20 Cullin Grace, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 James O’Connor, 23 Dallas McLeod.
Reds: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Lachie Anderson, 13 Josh Flook, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 Tom Lynagh, 9 Tate McDermott (captain), 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Joe Brial, 5 Ryan Smith, 4 Josh Canham, 3 Zane Nonggorr, 2 Richie Asiata, 1 Sef Fa’agase.
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18 Nick Bloomfield, 19 Angus Blyth, 20 John Bryant, 21 Kalani Thomas, 22 Dre Pakeho, 23 Tim Ryan.
Referee: Paul Williams
Assistant referees: Angus Mabey, Mike Winter
TMO: Richard Kelly
Saturday, June 7
Chiefs v Blues
(Waikato Stadium, Hamilton – Kick-off: 19.05; 07.05 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Chiefs by 12 points
Teams
Chiefs: 15 Shaun Stevenson, 14 Emoni Narawa, 13 Daniel Rona, 12 Gideon Wrampling, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Simon Parker, 7 Luke Jacobson (captain), 6 Samipeni Finau, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 3 George Dyer, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Aidan Ross
Replacements: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 Ollie Norris, 18 Reuben O’Neill, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Xavier Roe, 22 Josh Jacomb, 23 Etene Nanai-Seturo.
Blues: 15 Corey Evans, 14 Mark Tele’a, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 AJ Lam, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Dalton Papali’i, 6 Adrian Choat, 5 Laghlan McWhannell, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu (captain), 3 Marcel Renata, 2 Ricky Riccitelli, 1 Joshua Fusitu’a
Replacements: 16 Kurt Eklund, 17 Jordan Lay, 18 Angus Ta’avao, 19 Josh Beehre, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Sam Nock, 22 Harry Plummer, 23 Cole Forbes
Referee: Angus Gardner
Assistant referees: Damon Murphy, Matt Kellahan
TMO: James Leckie
Brumbies v Hurricanes
(Bruce Stadium, Canberra – Kick-off: 19.35; 21.35 New Zealand’s time; 09.35 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Brumbies by 7 points
Teams:
Brumbies: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 David Feliuai, 11 Corey Toole, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Ryan Lonergan, 8 Tuaina Taii Tualima, 7 Rory Scott, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Tom Hooper, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Lachlan Lonergan, 17 Lington Ieli, 18 Feao Fotuaika, 19 Lachlan Shaw, 20 Luke Reimer, 21 Harrison Goddard, 22 Declan Meredith, 23 Ollie Sapsford.
Hurricanes: 15 Ruben Love, 14 Bailyn Sullivan, 13 Billy Proctor (co-captain), 12 Peter Umaga-Jensen, 11 Fatafehi Fineanganofo, 10 Brett Cameron, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi (co-captain), 6 Devan Flanders, 5 Caleb Delany, 4 Zach Gallagher, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Asafo Aumua, 1 Xavier Numia.
Replacements: 16 Raymond Tuputupu, 17 Tevita Mafileo, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Hugo Plummer, 20 Brad Shields (co-captain), 21 Ereatara Enari, 22 Ngatungane Punivai, 23 Callum Harkin
Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Jordan Way, Jeremy Markey
TMO: Brett Cronan
Sources: AAP & AFP
