URC Round 11 - teams and predictions
PREVIEW: Being able to adapt to the conditions is going to be at a premium as the second round of the year-end South African derbies takes place on Old Year’s Eve.
The defending champion Stormers host the injury-hit Lions in Cape Town, with the weekend’s most significant game taking place in Durban – where the Sharks host the Bulls.
Sharks Director of Rugby Neil Powell said they expect a “big, physical battle” against a desperate Bulls team – hoping to make amends for last week’s bitterly disappointing loss to the Stormers.
“We are aware that they have targeted these two games [Stormers last week and Sharks this week].
“[However’] it is a really good opportunity for us to build some momentum,” he said.
The Sharks have won their last two league matches, both in Durban.
The hosts are happy to play without the ball, having made the fewest carries in the URC – just 729.
Given the possibility of rain, Powell said conditions always play into the team’s tactics.
While it appears the rain will clear up in the morning and return only return after the game, the fickle Durban weather may just dump some moisture on the game.
“We obviously need to plan for a rainy day as well,” Powell told @rugby365com.
“We hope it will be dry and clear, so we can play the type of game we want to play.
“However, it is important to have the [alternative] game [plan], where you play almost Test rugby – with a bit more kicking and pin the opposition in their half.”
The humidity is another factor that causes issues, making the ball very difficult to handle – with rain an aid in countering the ‘soapy residue’ left on the ball.
“It does get a bit muggy and something we are used to, training in those conditions,” Powell said.
“It is something we would like to use against the opposition.”
He added that understanding the conditions and playing towards it will be vital in getting the ‘W’.
“It is conditions that we know and are familiar with,” Powell said.
“It is important for us to manage the game well – in terms of where we play and where we don’t play.”
(Article continues below Neil Powell interview …)
The Bulls have won four of the six matches that they have played against the Sharks in the URC.
However, the Bulls had a four-match winning streak ended by the Stormers in Round 10.
The inclusion of Chris Smith at flyhalf – ahead of Springbok Johan Goosen, who shifted to fullback – is also a key to the visitors’ tactics.
Smith has nailed all 13 of his penalty attempts. His individual points tally of 77 is the third-highest in the league.
Rattling off the Sharks’ long list of Springboks – Lukhanyo Am, Rohan Janse van Rensburg, Makazole Mapimpi, Grant Williams, Siyamthanda Kolisi, Eben Etzebeth, Thomas du Toit, Mbongeni Mbonambi, Retshegofaditswe Nché and Jaden Hendrikse – Bulls Director of Rugby Jake White suggested his team is the underdogs against a team of incumbent Springboks.
“It is an away game [for the Bulls] and the record of away wins is between 20 and 30 percent,” White told @rugby365com.
“It has only been done once that a team has won every game in the season and that was Leinster a couple of years ago.
“Not even last year the powerhouse Leinster side could win every game.”
He said the Bulls will give it a full go, but said the important fact is that they make it to the play-offs.
“You have to play your best rugby at the back with your best players end of the competition – the last three weeks.
“It is still a long way off [from the end of the season].
“There have been a lot of questions about rotating players, not taking your best team away. I don’t want top beat the same drum.
“It is a case of packaging it differently sometimes, in order to get the best out of your players come April, May and June.
“That is when you need to be at your best – have all your players fit.”
* The other South African derby is likely to be far more one-sided.
The Stormers, sitting pretty at the top of the South African conference, have averaged the fewest carries per 80 minutes in the league so far this season (81.6).
However, they have also averaged the second-most offloads in this interval (10.2).
The Stormers’ incredible win rate at home continues. They have won 16 on the bounce in Cape Town – the Lions are the last team to beat them in the Mother City.
These sides have faced off four times in the URC, with the Stormers emerging victorious on three of these occasions.
The Lions have lost three of their last five matches.
To make matters worse for the visitors is the shockingly poor form of stand-in captain Marius Louw, who has dropped the most balls in the league (12) and has missed the most tackles (22).
Despite the fact that the Lions don’t have the same ‘star power’ and the same hype as an encounter with the Bulls or Sharks, Stormers captain Steven Kitshoff struck a cautionary note.
He admitted it is “difficult” to sell the same storyline as a big North-South derby, but as the Lions proved a year ago they can be dangerous if given a sniff.
“It will require a big internal motivation,” the home team skipper said.
“We focused on our structures and implementing our game plan.”
He cautioned against the game becoming unstructured against a Lions team that can be dangerous with the ball in hand.
“They have strike runners that can break the game wide open,” Kitshoff said, adding: “For us, it is all about our stuff – the way we counter-attack and the way we defend.”
Stormers coach John Dobson, while being pleased with the win over the Bulls last week that rocketed then to the top of the SA standings and second overall, said his team can still improve considerably.
“We feel that with a bit more time together, this combination can perform even better,” Dobson said.
“We have challenged the players to end the year on a high and reward the fans who come out to watch us on New Year’s Eve.
“These derby games are so important for our standing in the South African conference, so we want to make another step-up this weekend.”
All the teams and predictions follow below ...
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 31
Zebre v Benetton
(Stadio Lanfranchi, Parma – Kick-off 12.30, 11.30 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Benetton by six points
Teams
Zebre: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Kobus Van Wyk, 13 Erich Cronjé, 12 Enrico Lucchin (captain), 11 Jacopo Trulla, 10 Tiff Eden, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Taina Fox-Matamua, 7 Iacopo Bianchi, 6 Giacomo Ferrari, 5 Joshua Furno, 4 Jan Uys, 3 Muhamed Hasa, 2 Luca Bigi, 1 Juan Pitinari.
Replacements: 16 Marco Manfredi, 17 Paolo Buonfiglio, 18 Riccardo Genovese, 19 Andrea Zambonin, 20 Luca Andreani, 21 Ratko Jelic, 22 Nicolò Teneggi, 23 Matteo Moscardi.
Benetton: 15 Matteo Minozzi, 14 Edoardo Padovani, 13 Tommaso Menoncello, 12 Ignacio Brex, 11 Onisi Ratave, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Alessandro Garbisi, 8 Henry Time-Stowers, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza (captain), 4 Scott Scrafton, 3 Tiziano Pasquali, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Cherif Traore.
Replacements: 16 Siua Maile, 17 Federico Zani, 18 Filippo Alongi, 19 Riccardo Favretto, 20 Alessandro Izekor, 21 Manfredi Albanese, 22 Tomas Albornoz, 23 Filippo Drago.
Referee: Federico Vedovelli (Italy)
Referee assistants: Clara Munarini (Italy), Riccardo Angelucci (Italy)
TMO: Stefano Penne (Italy)
Sharks v Bulls
(Kings Park, Durban – Kick-off 16.45, 14.45 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Sharks by nine points
Teams
Sharks: 15 Boeta Chamberlain, 14 Marnus Potgieter, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Rohan Janse van Rensburg, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Curwin Bosch, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 7 Henco Venter, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi (captain), 5 Gerbrandt Grobler, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 1 Retshegofaditswe Nché.
Replacements: 16 Kerron van Vuuren, 17 Dian Bleuler, 18 Carlu Sadie, 19 Hyron Andrews, 20 Phendulani Buthelezi, 21 Jaden Hendrikse, 22 Lionel Cronje, 23 Yaw Penxe.
Bulls: 15 Johan Goosen, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Cornal Hendricks, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Chris Smith, 9 Bernard van der Linde, 8 Elrigh Louw, 7 Cyle Brink, 6 Marco Van Staden, 5 Ruan Nortje (captain), 4 Ruan Vermaak, 3 Mornay Smith, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Simphiwe Matanzima.
Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Sebastian Lombard, 19 Janko Swanepoel, 20 Nizaam Carr, 21 Embrose Papier, 22 Lionel Mapoe, 23 David Kriel.
Referee: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
Assistant referees: AJ Jacobs (South Africa, Cwengile Jadezweni (South Africa)
TMO: Quinton Immelman (South Africa)
Stormers v Lions
(Cape Town Stadium – Kick-off 19.00, 17.00 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Stormers by 22 points
Teams
Stormers: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Angelo Davids, 13 Suleiman Hartzenberg, 12 Dan du Plessis, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Paul de Wet, 8 Hacjivah Dayimani, 7 Willie Engelbrecht, 6 Deon Fourie, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Ben-Jason Dixon, 3 Neethling Fouche, 2 Joseph Dweba, 1 Steven Kitshoff (captain).
Replacements: 16 Andre-Hugo Venter, 17 Brok Harris, 18 Sazi Sandi, 19 Connor Evans, 20 Junior Pokomela, 21 Marcel Theunissen, 22 Godlen Masimla, 23 Clayton Blommetjies.
Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Sibahle Maxwane, 13 Henco van Wyk, 12 Marius Louw (captain), 11 Edwill van der Merwe, 10 Jordan Hendrikse, 9 Sanele Nohamba, 8 Emmanuel Tshituka, 7 Ruan Venter, 6 Jarod Cairns, 5 Pieter Jansen van Vuren,, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 2 Pieter Botha, 1 Jean-Pierre Smith.
Replacements: 16 Jaco Visagie, 17 Morgan Naudé, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Ruben Schoeman, 20 Sibusiso Sangweni, 21 Morné van den Berg, 22 Gianni Lombard, 23 Manuel Rass.
Referee: Morné Ferreira (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Aimee Barrett-Theron (South Africa, Stephan Geldenhuys (South Africa)
TMO: Ben Crous (South Africa)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 1
Cardiff v Ospreys
(Arms Park, Cardiff – Kick-off 15.00, 15:00 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Cardiff by eight points
Teams
Cardiff: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Owen Lane, 13 Rey Lee-Lo, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Jarrod Evans, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Thomas Young, 6 Josh Turnbull (captain), 5 Seb Davies, 4 Lopeti Timani, 3 Will Davies-King, 2 Liam Belcher, 1 Rhys Carré.
Replacements: 16 Kirby Myhill, 17 Corey Domachowski, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Ellis Jenkins, 21 James Ratti, 22 Lloyd Williams, 23 Mason Grady.
Ospreys: 15 Jack Walsh, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Michael Collins, 12 Keiran Williams, 11 Keelan Giles, 10 Owen Williams, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Ethan Roots, 7 Justin Tipuric (captain), 6 Jac Morgan, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Adam Beard, 3 Tom Botha, 2 Sam Parry, 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Tomas Francis, 19 Rhys Davies, 20 Morgan Morris, 21 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 22 Joe Hawkins, 23 Cai Evans.
Referee: Adam Jones (Wales)
Referee assistant: Ben Breakspear (Wales), Carwyn Williams (Wales)
TMO: Wayne Davies (Wales)
Scarlets v Dragons
(Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli – Kick-off 17.15, 17.15 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Scarlets by 11 points
Teams
Scarlets: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Johnny McNicholl, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Steff Evans, 10 Rhys Patchell, 9 Dane Blacker, 8 Sione Kalamafoni, 7 Dan Davis, 6 Aaron Shingler, 5 Sam Lousi, 4 Vaea Fifita, 3 WillGriff John, 2 Ken Owens (captain), 1 Kemsley Mathias.
Replacements: 16 Shaun Evans, 17 Steff Thomas, 18 Sam Wainwright, 19 Morgan Jones, 20 Carwyn Tuipulotu, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Dan Jones, 23 Jonathan Davies.
Dragons: 15 Angus O’Brien, 14 Rio Dyer, 13 Steff Hughes (captain), 12 Jack Dixon, 11 Ashton Hewitt, 10 JJ Hanrahan, 9 Lewis Jones, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Taine Basham, 6 Aaron Wainwright, 5 George Nott, 4 Joe Davies, 3 Chris Coleman, 2 Bradley Roberts, 1 Aki Seiuli.
Replacements: 16 Brodie Coghlan, 17 Rob Evans, 18 Luke Yendle, 19 Matthew Screech, 20 Ben Fry, 21 Che Hope, 22 Sam Davies, 23 Sio Tomkinson.
Referee: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)
Referee assistants: Craig Evans (Wales, ) Mike English (Wales)
TMO: Sean Brickell (Wales)
Ulster v Munster
(Ravenhill Stadium, Belfast – Kick-off 17.15, 17.15 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Ulster by five points
Teams
Ulster: 15 Stewart Moore, 14 Rob Baloucoune, 13 James Hume, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Billy Burns, 9 John Cooney, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Sean Reffell, 6 Greg Jones, 5 Iain Henderson (captain), 4 Kieran Treadwell, 3 Marty Moore, 2 Tom Stewart, 1 Rory Sutherland.
Replacements: 16 John Andrew, 17 Eric O’Sullivan, 18 Gareth Milasinovich, 19 Sam Carter, 20 Jordi Murphy, 21 Nathan Doak, 22 Jake Flannery, 23 Ethan McIlroy.
Munster: 15 Mike Haley, 14 Shane Daly, 13 Antoine Frisch, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Paddy Patterson, 8 Gavin Coombes, 7 Alex Kendellen, 6 Jack O’Donoghue (captain), 5 Kiran McDonald, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Roman Salanoa, 2 Niall Scannell, 1 Dave Kilcoyne.
Replacements: 16 Scott Buckley, 17 Josh Wycherley, 18 Stephen Archer, 19 Cian Hurley, 20 Jack O’Sullivan, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Ben Healy, 23 Patrick Campbell.
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Referee assistants: Andrew Cole (Ireland), Paul Haycock (Ireland)
TMO: Joy Neville (Ireland)
Leinster v Connacht
(RDS Arena, Dublin – Kick-off 19.35, 19.35 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Leinster by 18 points
Teams
Leinster: 15 Jimmy O’Brien, 14 Jordan Larmour, 13 Liam Turner, 12 Charlie Ngatai, 11 Rob Russell, 10 Johnny Sexton (captain), 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 James Ryan, 4 Brian Deeny, 3 Michael Ala’alatoa, 2 Rónan Kelleher, 1 Michael Milne.
Replacements: 16 John McKee, 17 Marcus Hanan, 18 Vakhtang Abdaladze, 19 Alex Soroka, 20 Scott Penny, 21 Cormac Foley, 22 Harry Byrne, 23 Jamie Osborne.
Connacht: 15 Tiernan O’Halloran, 14 Diarmuid Kilgallen, 13 Tom Farrell, 12 David Hawkshaw, 11 John Porch, 10 Jack Carty (captain), 9 Caolin Blade, 8 Jarrad Butler, 7 Shamus Hurley-Langton, 6 Cian Prendergast, 5 Niall Murray, 4 Darragh Murray, 3 Dominic Robertson-McCoy, 2 Dave Heffernan, 1 Peter Dooley.
Replacements: 16 Shane Delahunt, 17 Denis Buckley, 18 Sam Illo, 19 Oisín Dowling, 20 Conor Oliver, 21 Kieran Marmion, 22 Tom Daly, 23 Byron Ralston.
Referee: Eoghan Cross (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Chris Busby (Ireland), Peter Martin (Ireland)
TMO: Leo Colgan (Ireland)
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