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URC Round Six - teams and predictions

SATURDAY PREVIEW: if the spotlight was not already firmly on the defending champions, the cancellation of two of the Saturday matches means the Stormers certainly take centre stage.

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The Round Six United Rugby Championship fixtures involving the Lions against Glasgow Warriors (Ellis Park) and Sharks versus Ulster (Kings Park) were postponed as a result of an outbreak of gastroenteritis infections – which means Ulster and Glasgow Warriors could not field full playing squads.

The URC statement on Friday did not provide any detail, but reports out of Durban suggest that both Glasgow and Ulster players had been infected by swimming in ‘contaminated’ water.

The flow of raw sewage into the sea in the coastal city has been a problem for some time now.

It means there will only be three games on Saturday – Zebre versus Edinburgh at Stadio Lanfranchi, in Parma, Leinster hosting Munster in an Irish derby in Dublin and Cardiff at home to the Stormers at Arms Park.

On Sunday, the Dragons and Ospreys go head-to-head in a Welsh derby at Rodney Parade, Newport.

The Stormers’ winning came to an end with a 16-all draw against the Ospreys last weekend – the first match in 15 that they haven’t won outright.

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However, they are still on a formidable streak.

The last time that Cardiff and the Stormers met, Cardiff was soundly beaten 40-3 away from home.

With the benefit of playing in the Welsh capital this weekend, where Cardiff has won three of their last four, Stormers coach John Dobson was in a cautious mood.

The Stormers may not have lost a match in 15 league games, yet their stats suggest they have hardly played any rugby at all.

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Seemingly controlling the game from an armchair, they have made the fewest carries (292), contact metres (159), passes (360), tackles (471), turnovers won (14) and kicks (62).

To top it all off, they also have the lowest ball retention rate at the ruck, only recycling in this area 92 percent of the time.

Dobson made an often-repeated statement that rotation is going to be of paramount importance with the additional load of playing in the European Cup.

However, he is adamant that his team is up for the tricky assignment of tacking on Cardiff on their fast-paced 4G pitch at Arms Park.

“They lead the competition with linebreaks and offloads, having won back-to-back Welsh derbies,” the Stormers coach said.

He expects the Welsh team to try and use a fast-paced game to unsettle the Stormers.

“I suspect they would want to tire out our pack,” Dobson said, adding that his team would enjoy a high-paced encounter.

He said the challenge with a hybrid (4G) pitch is that once you lose momentum, you don’t get it back easily.

“You don’t get a chance to get back in the fight if you lose the initial collision,” he said, adding: “If you go back on grass you can dig in, but once you go back here [on a 4G pitch] it is hard to regrip.

“You have to be fast and quick with your collisions – as off and obvious as it sounds.

“Grass gives you time to come back, this is much less forgiving.

“Cardiff plays a fast game with their offloads.

“You can see with Ernst [van Rhyn] at No.7 and Adre [Smith[ at No.4, we want to stop them.

“We know the threat that their tempo game brings.”

Cardiff’s tenacity and work rate in defence is nothing to smirk at.

So far this season, they have racked up a huge total of 797 tackles, a league-high average of 159.4 per match.

Leading the charge in this department is flank Thomas Young, who has made more tackles than any other player in the URC – stopping opposition players in their tracks 78 times.

However, despite this bravery in defence, there have been some areas of concern in Cardiff’s game.

For example, Cardiff has the lowest rate of success at the line-out, on their own throw, of any team in the league – just 77 percent.

Cardiff’s Director of Rugby Dai Young stated the obvious when the said they are a quality outfit and the reigning champions.

“You only have to look at their 16-game unbeaten run to appreciate how good they are,” Young said.

“We will need to be at our best but we are at our home ground where we get brilliant support and we are on the back of two Welsh derby wins.

“This will be another step up, and we have some more injuries, but it’s a challenge we are relishing and will show us where we are as a team.

“We need to front up physically to match them and make sure we do not give very dangerous back-three opportunities.

“That means being really accurate on both sides of the ball, being disciplined and playing for the full 80 minutes.”

(Article continues below video – John Dobson previewing the Arms Park encounter)

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* The other big encounter is the Irish derby between Leinster and Munster at Lansdowne Road – a titanic clash between two powerhouses of URC and Europe.

Despite being a rivalry which needs no introduction, this fixture has been a one-sided affair in recent years, with Leinster defeating Munster eight of the last nine times that they’ve played one another.

This season has also been business as usual for Leinster, who are the only team in the league who have won all of their matches so far, whilst Munster have struggled to find their rhythm, winning just two of their first five.

Leinster won a war of attrition last weekend against Connacht, winning 10-0.

However, they are the best team in the league at creating attacking opportunities for themselves.

So far this season, they have made a total of 57 entries to the opposition’s 22 – the highest total of any team.

Last weekend they resorted to a more percentage-based game.

Flyhalf Ross Byrne controlled the match well, kicking the ball in play more than anybody else (15) to make a whopping 451 kicking metres.

In general, Leinster’s kicking game is very effective: a teammate has recovered the ball after it has been kicked on a URC-high 31 occasions.

Looking more like themselves in round five, Munster’s ability to take points when on offer is a major positive for them.

Their success rate for kicks at goal is a league-high 94 percent.

However, whilst they have effectively taken opportunities from the boot, the attack of the Munster men has been somewhat blunt thus far, making the fewest clean breaks of any team (11).

They do retain their traditional grit and determination and you can count on the fact that they will win by any means necessary, if possible, this weekend.

In team news, Johnny Sexton is back to captain Leinster – with coach Leo Cullen making a number of other changes from last week’s 23 that beat Connacht in Galway.

In the back three, Ciarán Frawley comes in at fullback, with Jimmy O’Brien and Jamie Osborne on the wings. Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose are selected in the centre, with Luke McGrath and captain Johnny Sexton as the halfbacks.

In the pack, Cian Healy starts this week at loosehead, with Tadhg Furlong at tighthead and Dan Sheehan starting his fifth game of the season at hooker. Jason Jenkins and James Ryan are selected in the second row, with Max Deegan, Scott Penny and Caelan Doris completing the XV selected by Cullen.

* Sunday’s Welsh derby – Dragons versus Ospreys – will be another intriguing affair.

Neither of these teams are currently enjoying the success that they or their fans would like.

The Dragons’ shock victory over Munster is their only league win in the last 10 matches they’ve played.

Similarly enduring a rough patch, the Ospreys have only won one of their six most recent URC fixtures – drawing twice.

Between these two sides though, history at least would favour the Ospreys.

The Dragons have won just one of their last six tussles with their Swansea rivals.

Wales captaincy candidate Adam Beard is looking forward to a domestic derby ahead of the November internationals.

“I’m really enjoying the league,” he said.

“With the South Africans coming in, it’s brought a bit more spice and physicality and a different challenge,” the 26-year-old added.

“You’ve obviously got the South Africans and the Irish, but you can look at the Scottish and Italian sides as well – there are no easy games these days.

“Where maybe a few years back you could say you were guaranteed to go out and win, it’s not like that anymore. No chance. There are no easy games and it’s good for rugby and good for the competition and good for promoting it.

“I think the fans are enjoying watching the league, which is good and we want to play a good brand of rugby that people want to watch. But, definitely, as a player and as a squad, we enjoy the challenges that come up in this league.”

Reflecting on the season so far, Beard admitted there had been some frustrations with victories slipping from their grasp.

“It’s been a bit up and down. If we are being totally honest, we should have won three of the first four,” he said.

“We had a tough derby to start the year against the Scarlets. Looking back at that game, we were really dominant in the first half. We put a lot of pressure on them and probably should have got more points.

“We took our foot off the gas in the second half and let them back into the game, so that’s probably one we let slip away. I suppose sometimes in a derby like that away from home you take the draw, take the two points.

“But then we were very disappointed with the second game at home to the Lions. We got the four tries, the bonus point, but then gifted them a couple of easy tries. It’s definitely a game we felt we should have won.

“Then going on to Glasgow, that was the performance we were looking for. They are a top side, so to put in a display like that against them put a good statement down for us.

“It was a little bit disappointing out in Belfast, but there were a lot of changes and a bit of illness in camp, which is obviously not great for preparation and Ulster is a tough place to go.”

Reinforced by the return of the likes of Beard, Alun Wyn Jones, George North, Tomas Francis, Jac Morgan, Dan Lydiate and Stephen Myler, the Ospreys bounced back with a much-improved display last weekend as they held reigning champions the Stormers to a 16-all draw in torrential rain in Swansea.

“It’s always a tough challenge against any South African team, but we like to back ourselves at home and it’s all about bringing energy and accuracy,” said Beard.

All the teams and predictions for Saturday, October 22, follow below

Zebre v Edinburgh
(Stadio Lanfranchi, Parma – Kick-off: 14.00; 13.00 Ireland & UK time)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Edinburgh by nine points

Teams

Zebre: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Pierre Bruno, 13 Tommaso Boni, 12 Damiano Mazza, 11 Jacopo Trulla, 10 Tiff Eden, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Taina Fox-Matamua, 7 MJ Pelser, 6 Luca Andreani, 5 Leonard Krumov, 4 David Sisi (captain), 3 Ion Neculai, 2 Marco Manfredi, 1 Juan Pitinari.
Replacements: 16 Giampietro Ribaldi, 17 Luca Rizzoli, 18 Muhamed Hasa, 19 Andrea Zambonin, 20 Gabriele Venditti, 21 Chris Cook, 22 Geronimo Prisciantelli, 23 Richard Kriel.

Edinburgh: 15 Henry Immelman, 14 Wes Goosen, 13 Matt Currie, 12 Chris Dean, 11 Emiliano Boffelli, 10 Jaco van der Walt, 9 Charlie Shiel, 8 Viliame Mata, 7 Luke Crosbie (captain), 6 Nick Haining, 5 Sam Skinner, 4 Jamie Hodgson, 3 Luan de Bruin, 2 Adam McBurney, 1 Boan Venter.
Replacements: 16 Patrick Harrison, 17 Nick Auterac, 18 Angus Williams, 19 Pierce Phillips, 20 Ben Muncaster, 21 Henry Pyrgos, 22 Charlie Savala, 23 Damien Hoyland.

Referee: Craig Evans (Wales)
Assistant referees: Manuel Bottino (Italy), Alberto Favaro (Italy)
TMO: Jon Mason (Wales)

Leinster v Munster
(Lansdowne Road, Dublin – Kick-off: 17.15; 16.15 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Leinster by 16 points

Teams

Leinster: 15 Ciarán Frawley, 14 Jimmy O’Brien, 13 Garry Ringrose (captain), 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Jamie Osbourne, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Luke McGrath, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Scott Penny, 6 Max Deegan, 5 James Ryan, 4 Jason Jenkins, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 John McKee, 17 Andrew Porter, 18 Michael Ala’alatoa, 19 Ross Molony, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Nick McCarthy, 22 Ross Byrne, 23 Rob Russell.

Munster: 15 Jack Crowley, 14 Shane Daly, 13 Dan Goggin, 12 Rory Scannell, 11 Liam Coombes, 10 Joey Carbery, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Gavin Coombes, 7 John Hodnett, 6 Jack O’Donoghue (captain), 5 Tom Ahern, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Keynan Knox, 2 Diarmuid Barron, 1 Jeremy Loughman.
Replacements: 16 Scott Buckley, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 James French, 19 Jack O’Sullivan, 20 Ruadhan Quinn, 21 Paddy Patterson, 22 Ben Healy, 23 Patrick Campbell.

Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Peter Martin (Ireland), Oisin Quinn (Ireland)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)

Cardiff v Stormers
(Arms Park, Cardiff – Kick-off: 19.35; 20.35 SA time; 18.35 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Stormers by nine points

Teams

Cardiff: 15 Ben Thomas, 14 Jason Harries, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Uilisi Halaholo, 11 Theo Cabango, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 James Ratti, 7 Thomas Young, 6 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 5 Rory Thornton, 4 Josh Turnbull (captain), 3 Dillon Lewis, 2 Kristian Dacey, 1 Rhys Carré.
Replacements: 16 Kirby Myhill, 17 Corey Domachowski, 18 Dmitri Arhip, 19 Matthew Screech, 20 Lopeti Timani, 21 James Botham, 22 Lloyd Williams, 23 Mason Grady.

Stormers: 15 Clayton Blommetjies, 14 Suleiman Hartzenberg, 13 Alapati Leuia, 12 Dan du Plessis, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Godlen Masimla, 8 Hacjivah Dayimani, 7 Ernst van Rhyn (captain), 6 Nama Xaba, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Adre Smith, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Joseph Dweba, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 JJ Kotze, 17 Kwenzo Blose, 18 Brok Harris, 19 Ben-Jason Dixon, 20 Willie Engelbrecht, 21 Junior Pokomela, 22 Paul de Wet, 23 Sacha Mngomezulu.

Referee: Andrea Piardi (Italy)
Assistant referees: Simon Rees (Wales), Carwyn Williams (Wales)
TMO: Stefano Roscini (Italy)

Lions v Glasgow Warriors – POSTPONED

* To read about the reason for the postponement, CLICK HERE!

Sharks v Ulster – POSTPONED

* To read about the reason for the postponement, CLICK HERE!

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 23

Dragons v Ospreys
(Rodney Parade, Newport – Kick-off: 15.00; 14.00 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Ospreys by five points

Teams

Dragons: 15 Jordan Williams, 14 Rio Dyer, 13 Steff Hughes, 12 Jack Dixon, 11 Jared Rosser, 10 JJ Hanrahan, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Harrison Keddie, 6 Aaron Wainwright, 5 Will Rowlands (captain), 4 Ben Carter, 3 Lloyd Fairbrother, 2 Bradley Roberts, 1 Rhodri Jones.
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Aki Seiuli, 18 Chris Coleman, 19 Joe Davies, 20 Sean Lonsdale, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Sam Davies, 23 Max Clark.

Ospreys: 15 Max Nagy, 14 George North, 13 Owen Watkin, 12 Michael Collins, 11 Luke Morgan, 10 Jack Walsh, 9 Rhys Webb (captain), 8 Morgan Morris, 7 Jac Morgan, 6 Ethan Roots, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Adam Beard, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Dewi Lake, 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Scott Baldwin, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Tom Botha, 19 Rhys Davies, 20 Dan Lydiate, 21 Justin Tipuric, 22 Reuben Morgan Williams, 23 Joe Hawkins.

Referee: Adam Jones (Wales)
Assistant referees: Mike English (Wales), Wayne Davies (Wales)
TMO: Ian Davies (Wales)

@king365ed
@rugby365com

* Additional reporting by @URCOfficial

URC standings after R5 2022/23

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