Road to the play-offs: Four wins or bust

OPINION: The least consistent South African franchises find themselves in a do-or-die situation – and needing a favour or two from the other local teams – ahead of a crucial four-game stretch at home.

It says something for the United Rugby Championship that 15 of the 16 teams are still in the running for the play-offs with four rounds to play.

The Bulls (third in the standings) and Sharks (fourth) are well on track for the quarterfinals, and it remains to be seen whether these teams will secure home advantage for the first – and potentially second – round of the knock-outs.

Meanwhile, the Stormers (10th) and Lions (14th) are outside the qualification zone.

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It’s important to note, however, that the Cape side is one log point behind eighth-placed Edinburgh, while the Lions trail the Scottish side by six.

For the first time since the competition’s inception, the Stormers and Lions will finish their respective league campaigns with four consecutive matches at home.

It’s also worth noting that the Stormers and Lions will play teams ranked seventh and lower over the next five weeks. Some of those sides have a horrific record in South Africa.

A best-case scenario sees the Stormers claiming bonus-point wins against Connacht, Benetton, the Dragons and Cardiff, and the Lions thrashing Benetton, Connacht, Scarlets and Ospreys.

If both sides rack up a maximum of 20 log points, they should qualify for the play-offs.

A best-case scenario also includes a favour from the Bulls and Sharks, who could stall other play-off contenders such as Munster, Edinburgh, Ulster over the next two weeks.

It could all come together for the individual franchises, who have had their respective problems over the course of the season.

For the first time, all four teams could progress to the URC play-offs, and that would increase the likelihood of a South African side lifting the trophy for the first time since 2022.

It’s possible, and fans should not lose hope at this stage.

That said, going by what we’ve seen from all of the teams over the past few months, this outcome seems highly unlikely.

The local teams have been terribly inconsistent, and you will have to go all the way back to the start of October for a clean sweep of South African victories in a single round.

With that in mind, is it realistic to expect a month-long run of South African wins, especially at the back end of the season, and with the Bulls and Sharks running the intercontinental gauntlet?

There have been only two instances this season where a local franchise has won four games on the bounce.

The Lions started the season with consecutive wins against Ulster and Edinburgh at home, before going on to beat the Dragons and Zebre Parma in Europe.

Just as that tour was coming to an end, the Sharks started to hit some form, beating Glasgow, Munster, the Stormers and Exeter Chiefs in Durban – although the latter two games were staged after the break for the November Tests.

While the current season has been largely disappointing, the local franchises might argue that past instalments of the URC have witnessed a strong finish by the South African contingent.

The Bulls won their last four league matches last season – all of which were staged in South Africa – and went on to finish second in the URC standings.

The Stormers had a slightly different schedule last season, winning against Leinster at home, before beating Connacht and the Dragons away. A narrow win against the Lions in Cape Town earned them a fifth-place finish – and knocked the Lions out of the play-off race.

All things considered, it’s a big ask to win four games in a row, and an even bigger ask to chase four-try bonuses.

As things stand, one defeat could dash the Lions’ hopes. As fate would have it, the Lions will play one of their toughest games this weekend, when seventh-placed Benetton travel to Johannesburg.

The Italians are in South Africa for a two-match tour, and may feel that a win against the Lions is more attainable than a victory over the former champions in Cape Town.

The Stormers will host Connacht, who always punch above their weight.

However, the Irish side is coming off a defeat to Racing 92 in the Challenge Cup quarterfinals, while the Stormers have had two weeks off to prepare.

The play-off equation will become clearer after the weekend’s matches.

The Lions’ chances of qualification will take a hit should they lose to Benetton, and pressure on coach Cash van Rooyen – who has presided over four underwhelming URC campaigns to date – will continue to mount.

In a sense, the Lions have been consistently poor over the years. The Stormers, on the other hand, have steadily declined.

John Dobson `and his charges for lauded for their heroics in 2022, when they secured the franchise’s first major trophy.

Since then, they’ve finished subsequent editions of the URC league phase in third and fifth place.

They failed to qualify for the Champions Cup knockout phase for the first time this season, and will make history for the wrong reasons once more if they miss out on the URC play-offs in the coming weeks.

They should be particularly desperate in the coming weeks.

It promises to be a fascinating final stretch, given how inconsistent every team bar Leinster have been over the course of the season.

And yet, it’s because of this inconsistency that four consecutive wins – and ultimately a result of four South African teams in the play-offs – seems an unrealistic expectation.

@rugby365com