The numbers that say the Bulls are a real threat to Leinster
STAT ATTACK: Leinster will start as heavy, odds-on favourites to claim back-to-back United Rugby Championship titles when they host the Bulls at Croke Park next Friday, June 19.
Bookmakers heavily favour Leinster to beat the Bulls, predicting a winning margin of nine to 12 points.
However, the more informed pundits regard the Bulls as ‘dangerous’ underdogs.
It is certainly going to be a fascinating clash of styles and strengths in the iconic Gaelic games stadium in Dublin, Páirc an Chrócaigh.
Leinster, despite their humbling loss to Union Bordeaux Bègles in the Champions Cup Final, has been in imperious form.
Some pundits regard them as the ‘benchmark’ of the URC.
Their defence, heavily influenced by South Africa’s World Cup-winning coach Jacques Nienaber, has been praised for its suffocating nature.
Then there is the ‘home ground’ advantage, despite it being at Dublin’s Croke Park.
The Bulls have relied heavily on their brutal physicality, set-piece dominance and grinding out scrum penalties.
And the Bulls also relish their ‘underdog’ status and have a formidable play-off record, having reached the Final four times in the last five years, including beating Glasgow Warriors away (Edinburgh) in the semifinal.
The ‘numbers’ that really matter are the tournament statistics, which paint a picture of a Bulls team far more dangerous than what bookmakers and ‘pundits’ are giving them credit for.
In last weekend’s absorbing semifinals, Leinster Caelan Doris topped the carry stats, with 22.
Bulls counterpart Cameron Hanekom beat seven defenders, the most by any player in the play-offs.
The Bulls also feature in the overall (season) stats after the semifinals.
Scrumhalf Embrose Papier is the joint top try scorer with Stormers No.8 Evan Roos (both 12), while Bulls loose forward Jeandre Rudolph has won 20 turnovers to top that aspect of the tournament stats.
The team stats make for even more thought-provoking reading.
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The Bulls top two of the categories – tries scored with 91 (almost five per game) and points, 633 (32 per game).
Head-to-head, those stats are just as fascinating.
The Bulls are No.1 in the attacking stats – topping points and tries scored, as well as edging metres gained and defenders beaten.
Leinster, ranked third in attacking stats, edges the offloads and clean breaks.
Both Leinster (12th) and the Bulls (14th) are outside the top 10 for defence.
Leinster edge the Bulls for tackles made, 2520, 126 per game against 2473 and 124. The Irish province has a tackle completion rate of 78 percent against the 77 percent of the Bulls.
Kicking has Leinster fourth and the Bulls eighth, with kicks retained (102 against 81) the most significant advantage.
The Bulls, in contrast, have scored six tries from kicks and Leinster just two.
Leinster (ranked fifth) has been more effective in the line-outs with a 92 percent (versus 90 percent) success rate and 23 steals against 15.
The Bulls’ scrum (ranked second) is more effective and destructive than that of Leinster (ranked 10th), with a 96 percent success rate (against 90 percent) and 45 scrum penalties against 39.
The two teams certainly have their strengths, but this is most likely going to be a one-score final.
@JanDKrugby
@rugby365com
