URC permutations: Lions need Bulls to stumble, Stormers chase top spot

OPINION: The Stormers head into the final round needing results in Cardiff and Belfast to go their way, while the Lions’ slim home quarterfinal hopes hinge on a Bulls loss to Benetton.

How will the final round of the United Rugby Championship play out – and what will the quarterfinal lineup look like after the last league match on Saturday, May 16?

Glasgow Warriors look set to top the table, while the Stormers have secured a home quarterfinal. Meanwhile, Leinster and the Bulls are well placed to secure home advantage for the first round of the play-offs.

Munster, the Lions, Connacht and Ulster may do enough to qualify for the knockouts, while Cardiff could miss out by one or two log points.

The above is based on a set of relatively conservative predictions.

And yet, if the URC has taught us anything over the course of five dramatic seasons, it’s to expect the unexpected.

How Stormers can still finish top

The race for top spot will come to a head this Friday, when the current log-leaders face Ulster in Belfast, and the Stormers tackle Cardiff in the Welsh capital.

Glasgow will take an unassailable lead at the top of the log if they bank five log points in Belfast – regardless of whether the Stormers win big in Cardiff or not.

The Stormers could finish in first place if other results go their way, but they could also finish as low as fourth if they drop the ball in Cardiff.

At the very least, they have to ensure that they win in Cardiff and that they keep third-placed Leinster at bay.

Any sort of win in Cardiff will be enough to secure a top-two finish.

If the Stormers and Leinster finish on the same number of log points, the Stormers will have the advantage, due to the fact that they’ve won more matches over the course of the campaign (total wins are the first tiebreaker, according to the URC rules).

But if the Stormers lose in Cardiff, they could be surpassed by Leinster, who will face the Ospreys in Dublin on Saturday.

There’s also a scenario that sees the Bulls finishing ahead of the Stormers – providing that the Cape side loses in Cardiff by seven or more, and that the Bulls thrash Benetton by a big score to improve their points difference.

As things stand, the Stormers boast a better differential (+166) than the Bulls (+134).

If the teams finish with the same number of log points and wins, and if the Bulls improve on their points difference in the final round, the Pretoria outfit will edge ahead of their arch-rivals in the standings.

Going by current form, the Stormers should be favourites to secure a bonus-point win in Cardiff.

That outcome would boost the Cape team’s chances of topping the log – although they would need a favour from Ulster in the other big match on Friday.

The matches in Cardiff and Belfast will be staged at the same time (20.45 SAST), and as a result, the Stormers won’t have to wait too long before discovering whether they’ve finished first or not.

Ulster (currently eighth) will surge up the log if they beat Glasgow – and that result could stop the Warriors from finishing the league in first place.

That said, Ulster don’t need to beat Glasgow to do the Stormers a favour – they simply need to stop the Warriors from winning with a try-scoring bonus point.

If the Stormers claim five log points in Cardiff and Glasgow pick up four in Belfast, the front-runners will end the league with the same number of wins (13) and log points (64).

And in that event, the Stormers will move up to first place, due to their superior point difference.

Glasgow (currently +137) are unlikely to beat Ulster by 30-plus points without scoring a four-try bonus point.

How Lions can secure a home play-off

As mentioned above, the Bulls could surpass the Stormers if Cardiff do them a favour on Friday night and if they get the job done against Benetton on Saturday.

The Bulls will have a clear idea of what’s required by the time the match kicks off at Loftus Versfeld (16.00 SAST).

They could finish as high as second place if Leinster suffer a shock loss to the Ospreys in Dublin.

That outcome seems highly unlikely, but the Irish giants do have other considerations, with the all-important Champions Cup Final in Bilbao scheduled for May 23.

The most likely scenario is a fourth-place finish for the Bulls.

If Benetton beat the Bulls, however, the likes of Munster and the Lions will have the chance to push for a top-four finish and ultimately a home quarterfinal.

Munster and the Lions will meet in Limerick in the final game of the round on Saturday evening – and as a result, they will know exactly what’s required before kick-off.

While the odds are certainly against the Bulls losing to Benetton in Pretoria and the Lions prevailing at Thomond Park, stranger things have happened in this very competition.

Connacht, for example, have defied most expectations to beat the likes of the Stormers (in Cape Town) and Munster in recent weeks, and appears well placed to qualify for the quarterfinals.

If Connacht claim a bonus-point win in Edinburgh on Friday night, they will move ahead of the Lions (currently 53 points) on the URC log.

And if Cardiff beat the Stormers and Ulster stun Glasgow, both will boost their tallies to 54 points (at least) – and edge ahead of Cash van Rooyen’s side in the standings.

The upshot is that the Lions may head into the final game needing a single log point to qualify for the play-offs.

If they fail to claim a log point in that scenario, they will finish outside the top eight for the fifth-consecutive season.

It’s plain to see why wins for the Stormers, Glasgow and Edinburgh on Friday may provide the Lions with some breathing room ahead of their own clash on Saturday night.

The mood may be very different if the Lions travel to Thomond Park with the knowledge that they have already qualified for the play-offs.

In that event, they may play with more freedom as they push for the best possible quarterfinal seeding and a potential fixture in South Africa.

The result in Limerick could determine whether Munster or the Lions head to Loftus for the first round of the play-offs – and having won in Pretoria earlier in the campaign, the Lions would certainly fancy their chances.