URC Round 14 - Teams and Predictions
SATURDAY PREVIEWS: With just five rounds left to play, the Race to the Eight in the United Rugby Championship is poised to deliver the most unpredictable battle for the playoffs in the competition’s history.
The bottleneck in the standings is still there and it will be another week of big impacts on log positions.
Three South African teams head into Saturday desperate to register victories.
The third-placed Bulls (45 points) and fourth-placed Sharks (44 points) are in pole position among the SA teams to qualify for the playoff stages but with the 15th-placed Zebre Parma only six points behind – trailing the 13th-placed Lions (30 points) by only three points – every team in the running will approach their matches with a do-or-die mindset.
The Bulls will enter their match against Zebre Parma at Loftus Versfeld as overwhelming favourites with their impressive form this season seeing them register nine victories to only five by the Italians.
Over and above this, the Bulls’ Director of Rugby, Jake White’s men are 18 log points ahead of Zebre, they’ve suffered only one home defeat this season, and they come off a morale-boosting victory against Leinster, which marked the Irish giants’ first defeat of the season
White was very pleased with the return of Ruan Nortje, the captain for the season and one of the strong leaders in the squad who has been out due to injury.
“He is very special. Just to have him around – the way he talks, prepares, what he says in meetings. Taking him on tour is massive. We are going on tour. To have him around, it just sets the tone,” White stated on Friday.
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“He will get some time off the bench this week and then next week maybe on the bench again.”
Commenting on the 6-2 bench he once again picked for this encounter, White said: “I’m not a fan, because it can come back and bite you. But the reason is because we’ve got so many forwards coming back from injuries.”
And referring to Zebre, he was quick to point out the teams they have beaten this season: “Zebre beat Munster, they beat Ulster, they nearly beat the Sharks last week. We were always going to make sure that we put a team on the field that could get a result.
“When you beat a team like Leinster like we did last week, there is a different vibe at training,” White shared.
*The Sharks, in turn, will face one of their biggest challenges this season when they line up against a bruised Leinster outfit who will be hellbent on making up for their last-minute defeat against the Bulls last week.
While the teams have not been far off in terms of their points scored, the Sharks will brace themselves for a tense battle as Leinster are by far the best defensive team in the competition with only 187 points conceded in their 13 matches to date.
Leinster may have won their last three outings against John Plumtree’s team, but the Sharks emerged victorious in their last match in Durban in 2022 – a feat they will look to replicate on Saturday to close the gap at the top of the table and remain in a comfortable position to possibly host a quarterfinal.
The Sharks’ downfall against Zebre was not being able to dominate the aerial battles and kicking game.
This is something his charges worked on this week, says Plumtree.
“They will go to the air. They would have seen that we struggled in that department last week. I think we won two of the eight contestable kicks and we need to win at least half if not a little bit more.”
He made some personnel changes for this weekend, bringing in Andre Esterhuizen in the midfield and moving Ethan Hooker out wide on the wing.
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“We’ve got one of the best players in the world in that department in Mapimpi. He hasn’t had a lot of rugby over the last six weeks since his suspension, but he’s had a good week.
“Ethan is a big man and we expect him to get up and contest [for the ball].
“And it will be good to see Yaw [Penche] at fullback. It’s not his normal position but it’s certainly a position I’m hoping he will play well in and there could be an opportunity for him to play there again in the future.”
Leinster has made eight changes to the starting XV from last Saturday’s last-second defeat to the Bulls, with the most notable being the absence of Jordie Barrett and RG Snyman.
Ciarán Frawley will partner Fintan Gunne in the halfback combination, with Charlie Tector and Liam Turner in the centres. The back three is unchanged from last week, with Andrew Osborne and Tommy O’Brien on the wings and Jimmy O’Brien at full-back.
Up front, Cian Healy, John McKee and Thomas Clarkson make up the front row while Diarmuid Mangan is joined by Brian Deeny in the second row. Will Connors continues in the number seven shirt after his Player of the Match performance at Loftus Versfeld, with captain Deegan and Alex Soroka completing the back row.
Lee Barron, Michael Milne, and Rory McGuire provide the front row cover from the bench, with Scott Penny joining the uncapped Spicer among the replacements.
Max Deegan captains the side from No. 8. Fintan Gunne is set to make his first start in blue. The Academy scrumhalf, who recently signed his first senior contract with Leinster, has made 11 appearances so far in his career, all as a replacement.
*The Lions, meanwhile, face a daunting challenge against the second-placed Glasgow Warriors at the Scotstoun Stadium where they will give everything to avoid suffering their third defeat in a row, especially after their heart-breaking17-20 loss against Cardiff last week in a match they could well have won.
While a victory for the Lions will ensure that they are in a realistic position to finish the pool stages in the top eight, a victory for the home team will in all likelihood see them remain in second place in the standings, which will be invaluable in trying to stay in the top two on the log.
On Thursday Lions’ prop Asenathi Ntlabakanye spoke to reporters from Glasgow where the team is prepping for their game.
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“Cardiff and Glasgow play two different styles. Glasgow wants ball in hand. We are also a team that likes ball in hand.
“We have been approaching it with a different mindset. It’s a different team.
“Here in Europe, it’s a bit different. There’s a lot of things that factor into the end result, in that if you don’t really capitalise, the home team knows how to play the conditions. So we need to be better in that aspect.”
“They have plans, we have plans. It’s about who executes the most on Saturday,” was the short and sweet answer from the big man.
With Glasgow boasting nine victories to only six by the visitors this season and the team positioned 11 places above the Lions on the standings, they will enter the match as favourites.
But they will be wary of the fact that Ivan van Rooyen’s unit has proved that they can win away from home after coming within inches of beating Cardiff and defeating the Dragons and Zebre Parma abroad.
*Connacht is in 12th place after picking up two bonus points in last weekend’s loss at Ospreys, while Munster arrives on the back of defeats to Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Connacht, with head coach Pete Wilkins on sick leave, have lost their last seven fixtures against fellow Irish provinces since beating Munster in Galway on New Year’s Day 2023.
Ian Costello’s side have won twice away from home this season, at Ulster in December and at Dragons in January.
The last seven meetings between the two provinces have been won by the home team on the day while Munster’s most recent success on Connacht soil was at the Sportsground in January 2021.
*Cardiff head coach Matt Sherratt has again opted for a 6-2 split on the replacements bench for their showdown with Benetton, with Joe Cowell set for his first league appearance and Ben Thomas providing the cover across the back line.
“We were really pleased to win last weekend against the Lions. It was an important one for us and a win, which the group fully deserved,” said Sherratt.
“The league is incredibly tight this season and you can shoot up or down the table in a couple of weeks so it is important that we continue to pick up points whenever possible.
“We have put ourselves in a good position but the challenge is to stay there with some difficult fixtures coming up.
“Benetton will pose a big challenge. They have a squad full of quality, pose plenty of threats and will be looking to build on a good win over Edinburgh.”
*The Scarlets are down in 14th in the table, but they are just five points behind their seventh-placed opponents, so there’s all to play for.
Dwayne Peel’s team will be out for revenge having suffered last-gasp heartbreak in losing 22-23 to the Ospreys down in Swansea just before Christmas.
Skipper Josh Macleod said: “That was definitely one that got away from us.”
It’s been something of a theme for the Scarlets this season as they have just missed out on wins in a number of close contests.
As for the Ospreys, they have been beaten just once in the eight games since Mark Jones took over as head coach.
Find all Saturday’s teams and predictions below:
Saturday, March 29
Bulls v Zebre Parma
(Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Pretoria – Kick-off: 14.45; 13.45 CET; 12.45 GMT)
Head-to-Head
Last 4 Meetings
Prediction:
@rugby365: Bulls by 15 points
Teams:
Bulls: 15 Deon Williams, 14 Sergeal Petersen, 13 David Kriel, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Stravino Jacobs, 10 Keagan Johannes, 9 Zak Burger, 8 Celimpilo Gumene, 7 Jannes Kirsten, 6 Marcell Coetzee (captain), 5 JF van Heerden, 4 Ruan Vermaak, 3 Mornay Smith, 2 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 1 Alulutho Tshakweni
Replacements: 16 Simphiwe Matanzima, 17 Akker van der Merwe, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Ruan Nortje, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Nizaam Carr, 22 Embrose Papier, 23 Boeta Chamberlain
Zebre: 15 Geronimo Prisciantelli, 14 Jacopo Trulla, 13 Fetuli Paea, 12 Enrico Lucchin, 11 Alessandro Gesi, 10 Giovanni Montemauri, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Davide Ruggeri, 7 Iacopo Bianchi, 6 Guido Volpi, 5 Leonard Krumov, 4 Matteo Canali, 3 Muhamed Hasa, 2 Luca Bigi, 1 Luca Rizzoli
Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Paulo Buonfiglio, 18 Juan Pitinari, 19 Francesco Ruffolo, 20 Bautista Stavile, 21 Ratko Jelic, 22 Giacomo Da Re, 23 Filippo Drago
Referee: Mike Adamson (Scotland)
Assistant referees: Cwengile Jadezweni (South Africa), Sean Muller (South Africa)
TMO: Sam Grove-White (Scotland)
Connacht v Munster
(MacHale Park, Mayo – Kick-off: 14.30; 14.30 GMT)
Head-to-Head
Last 5 Meetings
Prediction:
@rugby365: Munster by nine points
Teams:
Connacht: 15 Mack Hansen, 14 Chay Mullins, 13 Hugh Gavin, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Finn Treacy, Josh Ioane, 9 Caolin Blade, 8 Sean Jansen, 7 Shamus Hurley-Langton, 6 Cian Prendergast (captain), 5 Darragh Murray 4 Joe Joyce, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Dave Hefferman, 1 Jordan Duggan
Replacements: 16 Dylan Tierney-Martin, 17 Denis Buckley, 18 Jack Aungier, 19 Josh Murphy, 20 Paul Boyle, 21 Matthew Devine, 22 JJ Hanrahan, 23 Santiago Cordero
Munster: 15 Ben O’Connor, 14 Calvin Nash, 13Tom Farrell, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Sean O’Brien, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Craig Casey, 8 Gavin Coombes, 7 John Hodnett, 6 Tom Ahern, 5 Tadhg Beirne (captain), 4 Fineen Wycherley, 3 Oli Jager, 2 Diarmuid Barron, 1 Jeremy Loughman
Replacements: 16 Niall Scannell, 17 Josh Wycherley, 18 Stephen Archer, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 Ruadhán Quinn, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Rory Scannell, 23 Alex Kendellen
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Andrew Cole (Ireland), Padraic Reidy (Ireland)
TMO: Colin Stanley (Ireland)
Scarlets v Ospreys
(Parc Y Scarlets, Llanelli – Kick-off: 15.00; 15.00 GMT)
Head-to-Head
Last 5 Meetings
Prediction:
@rugby365: Ospreys by five points
Teams:
Scarlets:15 Blair Murray, 14 Macs Page, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Eddie James, 11 Ellis Mee, 10 Ioan Lloyd, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Josh Macleod, 6 Vaea Fifita, 5 Alex Craig, 4 Henry Thomas, 2 Marnus van der Merwe, 1 Alex Hepburn
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Sam O’Connor, 18 Sam Wainwright, 19 Jac Price, 20 Jarrod Taylor, 21 Efan Jones, 22 Ioan Nicholas, 23 Dan Davis
Ospreys: 15 Iestyn Hopkins, 14 Luke Morgan, 13 Evardi Boshoff, 12 Owen Williams, 11 Ryan Conbeer, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Morgan Morris, 7 Jac Morgan (captain), 6 Tristan Davies, 5 Adam Beard, 4 James Ratti, 3 Ben Warren, 2 George McGuigan, 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Steffan Thomas, 18 Tom Botha, 19 Rhys Davies, 20 Morgan Morse, 21 Luke Davies, 22 Phil Cokanasiga, 23 Max Nagy
Referee: Griffin Colby (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Craig Evans (Wales), Ellis Poulden (Wales)
TMO: Marius van der Westhuizen (SARU)
Sharks v Leinster
(Kings Park, Durban – Kick-off: 19.15; 17.15 UK & Ireland time; 17.15 GMT)
Head-to-Head
Last 5 Meetings
Prediction:
@rugby365: Sharks by four points
Teams:
Sharks: 15 Yaw Penxe, 14 Ethan Hooker, 13 Jurenzo Julius, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Jordan Hendrikse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Siya Kolisi (captain), 7 Vincent Tshituka, 6 James Venter, 5 Emile van Heerden, 4 Jason Jenkins, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Fez Mbatha, 17 Ntuthuko Mchunu, 18 Ruan Dreyer, 19 Corne Rahl, 20 Manu Tshituka, 21 Bradley Davids, 22 Siya Masuku, 23 Francois Venter.
Leinster: 15 Jimmy O’Brien, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Liam Turner, 12 Charlie Tector, 11 Andrew Osborne, 10 Ciarán Frawley, 9 Fintan Gunne, 8 Max Deegan, 7 Will Connors, 6 Alex Soroka, 5 Brian Deeny, 4 Diarmuid Manga, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 2 John McKee, 1 Cian Healy
Replacements: 16 Lee Barron, 17 Michael Milne, 18 Rory McGuire, 19 Alan Spicer, 20 Scott Penny, 21 Oliver Coffey, 22 Ross Byrne, 23 Henry McErlean
Referee: Ben Breakspear (Wales)
Assistant referees: Christopher Allison (South Africa), Hanru van Rooyen (South Africa)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)
Benetton v Cardiff
(Stadio Monigo, Treviso – Kick-off: 20.35; 19.35 UK & Ireland time; 19.35 GMT)
Head-to-Head
Last 5 Meetings
Prediction: Cardiff by six points
@rugby365:
Teams:
Benetton: 15 Rhyno Smith, 14 Ignacio Mendy, 13 Ignacio Brex, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Paolo Odogwu, 10 Tomas Albornoz, 9 Andy Uren, 8 Toa Halafihi, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Riccardo Favretto, 5 Eli Snyman (captain), 4 Scott Scrafton, 3 Giosué Zilocchi, 2 Bautista Bernasconi, 1 Thomas Gallo
Replacements: 16 Siua Maile, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Simone Ferrari, 19 Niccolò Cannone, 20 Federico Ruzza, 21 Michele Lamaro, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Jacob Umaga
Cardiff: 15 Cam Winnett,14 Gabriel Hamer-Webb, 13 Harri Millard, 12 Rory Jennings, 11 Regan Grace, 10 Callum Sheedy, 9 Ellis Bevan, 8 Alun Lawrence, 7 Dan Thomas, 6 James Botham, 5 Teddy Williams (captain), 4 Ben Donnell, 3 Rhys Litterick, 2 Evan Lloyd, 1 Danny Southworth
Replacements: 16 Dafydd Hughes, 17 Corey Domachowski, 18 Joe Cowell, 19 Rory Thornton, 20 Alex Mann, 21 Thomas Young, 22 Johan Mulder, 23 Ben Thomas.
Referee: Hollie Davidson (Scotland)
Assistant referees: Filippo Russo (Italy), Darlo Merli (Italy)
TMO: Andrew McMenemy (Scotland)
Glasgow Warriors v Lions
(Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow – Kick-off: 19.35; 21.35 SAST; 19.35 GMT)
Head-to-Head
Last 4 Meetings
Prediction:
@rugby365: Glasgow by 15 points
Teams:
Glasgow: 15 Kyle Rowe, 14 Jamie Dobie, 13 Stafford McDowall, 12 Tom Jordan, 11 Kyle Steyn (captain), 10 Adam Hastings, 9 George Horne, 8 Jack Mann, 7 Sione Vailanu, 6 Euan Ferrie, 5 JP du Preez, 4 Gregor Brown, 3 Sam Talakai, 2 Grant Stewart, 1 Natahan McBeth
Replacements: 16 Johnny Matthews, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Zander Fagerson, 19 Alex Samuel, 20 Henco Venter, 21 Rory Darge, 22 Ben Afshar, 23 Sebastian Cancelliere
Lions: Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Richard Kriel, 13 Manuel Rass, 12 Marius Louw, 11 Edwill van der Merwe, 10 Gianni Lombard, 9 Nico Steyn, 8 Francke Horn (captain), 7 Ruan Venter, 6 JC Pretorius, 5 Darrien Landsberg, 4 Ruben Schoeman, 3 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 2 PJ Botha, 1 Juan Schoeman
Replacements: 16 Franco Marais, 17 SJ Kotze, 18 RF Schoeman, 19 Ruan Delport, 20 Siba Qoma, 21 Layton Horn, 22 Jarod Cairns, 23 Rynhardt Jonker
Referee: Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
Assistant referees: Ru Campbell (Scotland), Fin Brown (Scotland)
TMO: Stefano Penne (Italy)
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