URC, Round 15 - teams and predictions

SATURDAY PREVIEWS: The final dash to the United Rugby Championship play-offs is going to throw up some enthralling conditional probabilities in the next four weeks.

With 15 of the 16 teams still in the running for the play-offs, the standings will fluctuate wildly in the next four weeks.

This weekend alone we have frantically contrasting situations that take us from the ‘dance of the desperates‘ in Cape Town to the ‘battle of the bests‘ in Limerick.

It is in western Ireland where we start with this exercise.

Fifth hosts third in what should be a mouth-watering encounter at Limerick’s Thomond Park.

To appropriate the Munster team motto: ‘Forti et Fideli nihil difficile.’ [To the brave and faithful, nothing is impossible]

For Munster, it’s a welcome return to home soil after four successive away games in the URC and Champions Cup.

From the South African influences of Thaakir Abrahams at fullback to World Cup-winning Springbok Jean Kleyn at lock, they have a host of Ireland’s best sandwiched in between – Jack Crowley, Craig Casey, Peter O’Mahony and captain Tadhg Beirne.

“We’ve been on the road a lot, so it’s nice to be at home,” coach Ian Costello said.

“Three of our last four games are at home, which is important to us.”

He added: “The Bulls’ physicality is huge.

“They are big and powerful men.

“How we deal with their power game will be a key factor in winning.

“They have got a very strong and varied kicking game, as well.

“So they pose a lot of threats, and we will have to be very, very close to our best to get a result.”

The Bulls, coming off a disappointing Challenge Cup quarterfinal loss to Edinburgh, are determined to finish in the top two.

(Article continues below the Jake White preview …)

“It is a good yardstick to see where we are,” Bulls Director of Rugby Jake White said about facing a team that has never lost to South African opposition at Thomond Park.

After this week’s Irish expedition, the third-placed Bulls journey to Scotland to face Glasgow Warriors – the team they want to displace in second place.

“We might have to play these teams again in the play-offs,” White said, adding: “It is about us measuring ourselves in two consecutive weekends against teams like Munster and Glasgow.

“It comes on the back of two weeks in which we played tough opposition [Aviron Bayonnais and Edinburgh].

“If we want to win the URC, we are going to have to beat sides like Munster and Glasgow on the way to winning the title.”

White said his team’s win over Aviron Bayonnais a fortnight ago in France (the French team’s first loss at home this year),  and other wins like Leinster at Loftus and in Dublin three years ago (also firsts), makes him ‘excited’ about the team’s ability.

“It is an opportunity to play at this [Thomond Park] stadium against a tough team,” he told @rugby365com, adding: “The team I have selected is strong.

“It gives me confidence that if we play well enough, there is no reason why we can’t get a result [win].

“We need it for confidence going forward, in the knock-out rounds. We need to be playing well going into the play-offs.”

White said his team needs to be ‘smart’ tactically against a wily Munster team and for his team to ‘rebound’ after last week’s loss in Edinburgh.

* In Cape Town, the Stormers start a four-game home run in a desperate bid to get back in the top eight (play-off zone).

They face a Connacht team that has come through a week of turmoil, with head coach Pete Wilkins stepping down with immediate effect.

Forward coach Cullie Tucker has taken charge of the team in Cape Town.

“We’ve had a good first week in South Africa and are really excited by this opportunity,” Tucker said ahead of the Cape Town face-off.

“We’re only three points off the play-off spots and we’ve a clear idea of what we need to do to win and how we go about doing it.

“The Stormers are a very strong side, especially at home, so it’s a massive task ahead of us but we’re confident in our abilities.”

Tucker said the ‘desperate’ situation the two teams find themselves in is the “nature of the URC” this season.

“They [the Stormers have brilliant individual players and an impressive offload game – an attack-minded team,” the caretaker coach said.

“The contact zone, both sides of the ball, will be key to the game. We have to be very accurate and physical there.”

He said they have had some ‘warm weather’ in Ireland recently, so the conditions won’t impact on them.

“We are well prepared to do what we need to do,” he told @rugby365com.

Defence will be a key factor against the Stormers’ ‘chaos’ in attack.

“Our scramble defence will have to be good. They will stress you and will make breaks. It is how you react to those.”

Stormers Director of Rugby John Dobson spoke of the ‘desperation’ in his team to stay in the race after a less-than-desirable and erratic season.

Questioned about the turmoil in the opposition camp, Dobson said Wilkins is a highly respected coach, but they expect the Irish visitors to be fired up by Tucker.

“They have to get a win on this tour,” he said of a Connacht team that plays the Lions on the Highveld next week, adding: “They have a tough fixture [Edinburgh] when they get back.

“They are desperate, and a desperate team is dangerous. But so are we.

“We [the Stormers] have no runway remaining,” Dobson said of their perilous position on the standings.

“If we don’t make the play-offs, that will be a staggering underachievement.”

Flank Paul de Villiers said the next four matches, all at home, are an opportunity to “build some momentum” ahead of the play-offs.

“We are focusing on the first game, Connacht, but winning all four at home and taking us with momentum into the play-offs,” De Villiers said.

“We must pitch up, but we are also desperate for the win.”

* The Lions, another team desperate to keep their play-off hopes alive, host a Benetton side that will arrive at Ellis Park loaded with Italian internationals.

The Lions into the weekend down in 14th place in the table, but they are certainly not out of the play-off hunt.

They are only six points off the top eight, and their last four games are all at home.

In contrast, Benetton are currently in seventh spot, but have a challenging run-in – with Saturday’s trip to Johannesburg followed by a journey to Cape Town to face the Stormers and then encounters with Glasgow (home) and Munster (away).

Benetton coach Marco Bortolami said they are determined to set the record straight after their exit in the Round of 16 in Europe’s Champions Cup.

“After the match against Castres [a 37-39 loss in France], Saturday’s game represents a chance for redemption for us,” Bortolami said.

“It was important to recover our energy, given the match against the Lions.

“We know their strengths and we will be ready to face them.”

Lions captain Francke Horn said they still believe, despite having lost their last three matches.

“We will give it everything we have,” he said, adding: “We made it tough for ourselves.

“Any extra point can make a big difference in such a congested log,” he said about the heartbreaking (17-20) loss to Cardiff, where they were leading late in the game, but an intercept pass gifted the Welsh side a win.

“We are facing some tough teams [Benetton, Connacht] in the next fortnight.

“They [Benetton] have many [Italian] internationals in their team.

“The message this week was not to crawl into a shell and be the Lions, score some nice tries.”

Lions flank Ruan Venter said he is expecting a fast game and feels that it will benefit his team.

“We know Benetton likes to run the ball,” he said.

“They are going to be giving us opportunities that suit our style of play.

“We are expecting a lot of ball in play and a high-tempo match.

“That style will help them, but it will also suit us at Ellis Park. We are excited for it.”

All Saturday’s teams and predictions follow below …

Lions v Benetton
(Ellis Park, Johannesburg – Kick-off: 13.45; 13.45 Italian time; 11.45 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Benetton by eight points

Teams

Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Tapiwa Mafura, 13 Rynhardt Jonker, 12 Marius Low, 11 Edwill van der Merwe, 10 Kade Wolhuter, 9 Morné van den Berg, 8 Francke Horn (captain), 7 Ruan Venter, 6 JC Pretorius, 5 Darrien Landsberg, 4 Ruben Schoeman, 3 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 2 PJ Botha, 1 Juan Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Jaco Visagie, 17 SJ Kotze, 18 RF Schoeman, 19 Ruan Delport, 20 Sibabalo Qoma, 21 Nico Steyn, 22 Renzo du Plessis, 23 Kelly Mpeku.

Benetton: 15 Leonardo Marin, 14 Ignacio Mendy, 13 Tommaso Menoncello, 12 Ignacio Brex, 11 Paolo Odogwu, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Alessandro Garbisi, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Riccardo Favretto, 5 Federico Ruzza (captain), 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Bautista Bernasconi, 1 Thomas Gallo.
Replacements: 16 Siua Maile, 17 Ivan Nemer, 18 Giosué Zilocchi, 19 Scott Scrafton, 20 Eli Snyman, 21 Michele Lamaro, 22 Andy Uren, 23 Rhyno Smith.

Referee: Craig Evans (Wales)
Assistant referees: Griffin Colby (South Africa), Hanru van Rooyen (South Africa)
TMO: Adam Jones (Wales)

Stormers v Connacht
(Cape Town Stadium, Cape Town – Kick-off: 16.00; 15.00 Ireland time; 14.00 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Stormers by 12 points

Teams

Stormers: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Suleiman Hartzenberg, 13 Dan du Plessis, 12 Damian Willemse, 11 Seabelo Senatla, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Stefan Ungerer, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Marcel Theunissen, 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Ruben van Heerden, 4 Salmaan Moerat (captain), 3 Sazi Sandi, 2 André-Hugo Venter, 1 Ali Vermaak.
Replacements: 16 JJ Kotze, 17 Vernon Matongo, 18 Brok Harris, 19 JD Schickerling, 20 Louw Nel, 21 Deon Fourie, 22 Paul de Wet, 23 Ben Loader.

Connacht: 15 Piers O’Conor, 14 Chay Mullins, 13 David Hawkshaw, 12 Cathal Forde, 11 Shane Jennings, 10 Jack Carty, 9 Ben Murphy, 8 Paul Boyle, 7 Conor Oliver, 6 Cian Prendergast (captain), 5 Darragh Murray, 4 Oisin Dowling, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Dylan Tierney-Martin, 1 Peter Dooley.
Replacements: 16 Dave Heffernan, 17 Jordan Duggan, 18 Jack Aungier, 19 Josh Murphy, 20 Joe Joyce, 21 Matthew Devine, 22 Santiago Cordero, 23 Sean Jansen.

Referee: Sam Grove-White (Scotland)
Assistant referees: Cwengile Jadezweni (South Africa) & Stephan Geldenhuys (South Africa)
TMO: Hollie Davidson (Scotland)

Ospreys v Cardiff
(Millennium Stadium, Cardiff – Kick-off: 15.00; 14.00 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Ospreys by five points

Teams

Ospreys: 15 Jack Walsh, 14 Dan Kasende, 13 Evardi Boshoff, 12 Keiran Williams, 11 Keelan Giles, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 8 Morgan Morse, 7 Jac Morgan (captain), 6 Tristan Davies, 5 James Ratti, 4 James Fender, 3 Tom Botha, 2 Sam Parry, 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Garyn Phillips, 18 Ben Warren, 19 Will Spencer, 20 Lewis Lloyd, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Owen Williams, 23 Iestyn Hopkins.

Cardiff: 15 Cam Winnett, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Harri Millard, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Gabriel Hamer-Webb, 10 Callum Sheedy, 9 Johan Mulder, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 James Botham, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Teddy Williams, 4 Ben Donnell, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Liam Belcher, 1 Corey Domachowski.
Replacements: 16 Evan Lloyd, 17 Danny Southworth, 18 Rhys Litterick, 19 Rory Thornton, 20 Alun Lawrence, 21 Thomas Young, 22 Aled Davies, 23 Rory Jennings.

Referee: Ben Connor (Wales)
Assistant referees: Ben Whitehouse (Wales), Ben Breakspear (Wales)
TMO: Aled Griffiths (Wales)

Munster v Bulls
(Thomond Park, Limerick – Kick-off: 17.15; 18.15 SA time; 16.15 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Munster by six points

Teams

Munster: 15 Thaakir Abrahams, 14 Seán O’Brien, 13 Tom Farrell, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Andrew Smith, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Craig Casey, 8 Alex Kendellen, 7 Peter O’Mahony, 6 Tom Ahern, 5 Tadhg Beirne (captain), 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Oli Jager, 2 Niall Scannell, 1 Josh Wycherley.
Replacements: 16 Lee Barron, 17 Mark Donnelly, 18 Stephen Archer, 19 Fineen Wycherley, 20 Jack O’Donoghue, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Diarmuid Kilgallen, 23 Ruadhán Quinn.

Bulls: 15 Devon Williams, 14 Sebastian de Klerk, 13 David Kriel, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Canan Moodie, 10 Johan Goosen, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Cameron Hanekom, 7 Jannes Kirsten, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Ruan Nortje (captain), 4 Cobus Wiese, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Akker van der Merwe, 1 Jan-hendrik Wessels.
Replacements: 16 Johann Grobbelaar, 17 Simphiwe Matanzima, 18 Mornay Smith, 19 JF van Heerden, 20 Celimpilo Gumede, 21 Izak Burger, 22 Keagan Johannes, 23 Stravino Jacobs.

Referee: Andrea Piardi (France)
Assistant referees: Andrew Cole (Ireland), Sam Holt (Ireland)
TMO: Stefano Roscini (Italy)

Dragons v Scarlets
(Millennium  Stadium, Cardiff – Kick-off: 17.30; 16.30 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Scarlets by nine points

Teams

Dragons: 15 Ewan Rosser, 14 Ashton Hewitt, 13 Aneurin Owen (captain), 12 Scott Williams, 11 Jared Rosser, 10 Angus O’Brien, 9 Rhodri Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Taine Basham, 6 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 5 Ryan Woodman, 4 Ben Carter, 3 Paula Latu, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Dylan Kelleher-Griffiths.
Replacements: 16 Brodie Coghlan, 17 Rhodri Jones, 18 Chris Coleman, 19 Barny Langton-Cryer, 20 Dan Lydiate, 21 Dane Blacker, 22 Will Reed, 23 Joe Westwood.

Scarlets: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Macs Page, 12 Eddie James, 11 Ellis Mee, 10 Ioan Lloyd, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Josh Macleod (captain), 6 Vaea Fifita, 5 Sam Lousi, 4 Alex Craig, 3 Henry Thomas, 2 Marnus van der Merwe, 1 Alec Hepburn.
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Sam O’Connor, 18 Sam Wainwright, 19 Jac Price, 20 Jarrod Taylor, 21 Archie Hughes, 22 Joe Roberts, 23 Ioan Nicholas.

Referee: Aimee Barrett-Theron (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Mike English (Wales), Gwyn Morris (Wales)
TMO: Keith David (Wales)

Leinster v Ulster
(Lansdowne Road, Dublin – Kick-off: 19.35; 18.35 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Leinster by 10 points

Teams

Leinster: 15 Jamie Osborne, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Jimmy O’Brien, 10 Ciarán Frawley, 9 Luke McGrath (captain), 8 James Culhane, 7 Scott Penny, 6 Alex Soroka, 5 Diarmuid Mangan, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 2 Gus McCarthy, 1 Jack Boyle.
Replacements: 16 Dan Sheehan, 17 Andrew Porter, 18 Tadhg Furlong, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Max Deegan, 21 Fintan Gunne, 22 Sam Prendergast, 23 Liam Turner.

Ulster: 15 Michael Lowry, 14 Zac Ward, 13 Jude Postlethwaite, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Jack Murphy, 9 Nathan Doak, 8 David McCann, 7 Nick Timoney, 6 James McNabney, 5 Cormac Izuchukwu, 4 Alan O’Connor (captain), 3 Tom O’Toole, 2 Rob Herring, 1 Andrew Warwick.
Replacements: 16 Tom Stewart, 17 Callum Reid, 18 Scott Wilson, 19 Matthew Dalton, 20 Kieran Treadwell, 21 John Cooney, 22 Stewart Moore, 23 Matty Rea.

Referee: Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
Assistant referees: Andrew Fogarty (Ireland), Tómas O’Sullivan (Ireland)
TMO: Stefano Penne (France)

Zebre v Glasgow Warriors
(Stadio Lanfranchi, Parma – Kick-off: 20.35; 19.35 UK time; 18.35 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Glasgow by 15 points

Teams

Zebre: 15 Geronimo Prisciantelli, 14 Jacopo Trulla, 13 Fetuli Paea, 12 Damiano Mazza, 11 Simone Gesi, 10 Giacomo Da Re, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Giacomo Licata, 7 Bautista Stavile, 6 Davide Ruggeri, 5 Leonard Krumov, 4 Matteo Canali, 3 Muhamed Hasa, 2 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 1 Danilo Fischetti (captain).
Replacements: 16 Luca Bigi, 17 Paolo Buonfiglio, 18 Juan Pitinari, 19 Rusiati Nasove, 20 Giacomo Ferrari, 21 Gonzalo Garcia, 22 Luca Morisi, 23 Scott Gregory.

Glasgow Warriors: 15 Josh McKay, 14 Sebastian Cancelliere, 13 Ollie Smith, 12 Stafford McDowall, 11 Kyle Steyn (captain), 10 Adam Hastings, 9 Jamie Dobie, 8 Jack Mann, 7 Sione Vailanu, 6 Euan Ferrie, 5 Alex Samuel, 4 Jare Oguntibeju, 3 Fin Richardson, 2 Gregor Hiddleston, 1 Jamie Bhatti.
Replacements: 16 Johnny Matthews, 17 Patrick Schickerling, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Max Williamson, 20 Rory Darge, 21 Sean Kennedy, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Facundo Cordero.

Referee: Peter Martin (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Federico Vedovelli (France), Riccardo Angelucci (France)
TMO: Mark Patton (Ireland)

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