URC, Round 16 - teams and predictions

SATURDAY PREVIEWS: The Sharks are targeting a top-two finish in the United Rugby Championship and that requires winning their three remaining matches.

That starts when they tackle a ‘desperate’ Ulster at Ravenhill Stadium on Saturday.

Fourth on the standings with 49 points, the Sharks are on the brink of joining runaway leaders Leinster (67 points), Glasgow Warriors (58) and the Bulls (54) in the play-offs.

The Belfast-based team, Ulster, is 10th on the URC standings and with just three rounds remaining and can’t afford to lose any more ground on the top eight.

The Sharks are coming off an upset against Edinburgh (18-17) in Scotland last week, and they will also take some encouragement from the fact that Ulster have suffered three defeats at home this season, which makes a victory a real possibility if they play to their full potential.

However, they will need to be a lot more clinical than last week.

Sharks coach John Plumtree said the aspects that won them the game last week – like goalline defence and efficiency in scoring after 22-metre entries – will again come into play against the Irish powerhouse.

He added that they have had a tough season with injuries, which caused challenges with continuity, but are moving in the right direction.

“We are looking to improve, whether we win by one point or win by 20,” Plumtree said.

“We have players coming back at the right time.”

He said that finishing in the top two is something they have spoken about in the build-up to Saturday’s face-off.

“You narrow it down to ‘winning’ every day [in the build-up] and winning at the weekend,” he told @rugby365com.

He said that only having to travel from Edinburgh to Belfast has allowed them a full week of quality preparations and some genuine downtime.

“We do know we are walking into a tough environment here [Ravenhill], with Ulster needing to win to get into the top eight and have a number of players leaving at the end of the season, with this their last home game.

“We are expecting a real battle, something similar to what we faced in Edinburgh [last week].”

Ulster coach Richie Murphy gave his thoughts on just how many points he feels they need to make the play-offs.

After this weekend’s Belfast showdown with the fourth-placed Sharks, they then travel to two more top eight teams – Munster and Edinburgh – in the final rounds.

“It’s very hard to know what you need to get into the top eight, but 47, 48 points would probably do it,” said Murphy, whose team currently lie 10th, three points off the play-offs.

“We are on 37 at the moment, so we’d be pretty happy with 10 or 11 more points, whether that be three wins or picking up a couple of bonus points.

“It’s going to be very tight because a lot of the teams have to play against each other.

“We’ve got a difficult run-in, but it’s three finals to play another final after that, and then we just keep moving on.”

(Article continues below John Plumtree preview …)

* Another team bent on staying in the top-eight race, the Stormers, will also look to produce an improved performance after a fortuitous escape last week.

Stormers coach John Dobson is hoping the major scare at home to Connacht last weekend will serve as a timely wake-up call for his team.

It looked as though they were going to suffer a shock defeat when the visitors’ Argentine back three star Santiago Cordero touched down in the final play.

But the score was ruled out for obstruction in the build-up, meaning the Stormers held on to win 34-29.

“That was a helluva wake-up call. That performance won’t get us close to Benetton,” admitted Dobson.

“We all accept that. It was our worst defensive performance in years. Defensively, we were very poor. We were exposed.

“I thought we’d lost the game and, honestly, I thought we deserved to. We are not going to go far in this tournament if we defend like that.

“Either we change or we just go play three more home games, and that’s going to be it.”

Three wins in the remainder of the league phases is required to ensure they stay in the top eight.

“We played a desperate team [Connacht] that was just below us on the standings last week, we play a team [Benetton] that is above us and a team [Cardiff] that is just above us in three weeks.

“Tomorrow [Saturday against Benetton] is a proper game against a team with 600 Italian Test caps.

“All but one of their pack played in the Six Nations and arguably the best centre pairing Italy has ever produced.”

Benetton’s demolition of the Lions at Ellis Park last week ensures the Stormers will be on full alert.

* The third South African team in action on Saturday, the Lions, is in a desperate state and by all accounts in ‘must-win’ territory.

After their heartbreaking loss to the Stormers last week Connacht, with a much better chance of making the play-offs, will be determined to get a rare win at Ellis Park.

The Lions are down in 14th and Connacht in 12th in the table.

There is no margin for error for either side.

The Lions have lost their last four URC league games – five losses on the trot with a Challenge Cup Round of 16 reverse sandwiched in there – while their Irish guests have suffered three successive defeats.

However, Connacht did pick up two points last weekend in that dramatic 29-34 loss to the Stormers in Cape Town, where they had a final play try chalked off.

Coach Cullie Tucker said: “We weren’t given much of a chance by the media over here, but the boys put in a great shift.

“We have got some very good characters who announced themselves and told the people who they are. To score a try at the end to win the game and to have it chalked off is pretty frustrating.”

He continued: “We are in the land of physicality and the Lions are another very physical team, with a strong set-piece, while they have some fantastic individual rugby players.

“They will stretch us, they will test us and then you’ve got the altitude on top of that. It will be another incredibly tough test, but the boys are in good spirits and we are looking forward to it.”

Lions scrum coach Julian Redelinghuys admitted the losing streak has come up in team meetings.

“We have spoken a lot about pressure over the past few weeks,” the assistant coach said.

“Pressure can numb you. It can make you retreat into yourself, or you can use it as a privilege.

“We are playing the game we love and working with people we care for.

“This sport isn’t played to be fun or nice, it’s played to be won and make the play-offs.

“We want to make that big step up collectively and we believe our best rugby is yet to be played.

“We are looking for a good response from the team this [coming] weekend.”

* Wales star Dewi Lake admits the Ospreys have made it tough for themselves to make the play-offs, but says they will draw inspiration from what they achieved last season.

A year ago, they were given just a two percent chance of finishing in the top eight going into Round 18, but overcame those odds to force their way in.

They are up against it once again this term following successive league defeats to the Scarlets and Cardiff, especially as they have to travel to South Africa for the final two rounds.

But hooker Lake insists they have not given up hope as they head into another derby clash – with the Dragons.

“We have made it tough for ourselves again with results not going our way in the last couple of league games,” he said.

“The top eight is our objective and we know we are probably looking at three wins from three to secure that. There’s no hiding away from that. So that’s our goal, that’s our focus. Nothing is ever out of reach.

“That’s evident from how we snuck into the play-offs with the final game last year.”

As well as losing their last two matches in the league, the Ospreys also bowed out of the Challenge Cup this month, suffering a narrow quarter-final defeat to Lyon which was tough to take.

“We have gone through peaks and troughs over the last few weeks, but the disappointments add fuel to the fire,” said Lake.

“We know what we need to do to get into that final eight and extend our season and that’s given us a massive boost in motivation.”

* Scarlets coach Dwayne Peel has been outlining what he believes it will take to beat the in-form team in the world.

That’s how he describes league leaders Leinster who have only lost once in all competitions this season.

Peel’s men have to become just the second side to beat them if they are to keep their play-off hopes alive.

“It’s going to be a big occasion against the team in the best form in world club rugby,” said the former Wales scrumhalf.

“They are a fantastic side. They have won 20 out of 21 this season and you’ve seen how good they’ve been over the last few weeks.

“But I don’t see it as a daunting thing. It’s obviously going to be a massive challenge, but it’s also an opportunity for us to have a go at them and try and make them uneasy.

“You’ve got to try and upset the rhythm of their game and get in amongst them.”

All Saturday’s teams and predictions follow below ….

Lions v Connacht
(Ellis Park, Johannesburg – Kick-off: 16.00; 15.00 Irish time; 14.00 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Connacht by eight points

Teams

Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Richard Kriel, 13 Henco van Wyk, 12 Bronson Mills, 11 Edwill van der Merwe, 10 Kade Wolhuter, 9 Morné van den Berg, 8 Jarod Cairns, 7 Renzo du Plessis, 6 JC Pretorius, 5 Ruan Delport, 4 Ruben Schoeman, 3 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 2 Jaco Visagie (captain), 1 Morgan Naude.
Replacements: 16 PJ Botha, 17 SJ Kotze, 18 RF Schoeman, 19 Darrien Landsberg, 20 Izan Esterhuizen, 21 Nico Steyn, 22 Lubabalo Dobela, 23 Rynhardt Jonker.

Connacht: 15 Piers O’Conor, 14 Shayne Bolton, 13 David Hawkshaw, 12 Cathal Forde, 11 Shane Jennings, 10 Jack Carty, 9 Matthew Devine, 8 Sean Jansen, 7 Conor Oliver, 6 Cian Prendergast (captain), 5 Joe Joyce, 4 Josh Murphy, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Dave Heffernan, 1 Peter Dooley.
Replacements: 16 Eoin de Buitléar, 17 Jordan Duggan, 18 Sam Illo, 19 Oisín Dowling, 20 Paul Boyle, 21 Colm Reilly, 22 Hugh Gavin, 23 Santiago Cordero.

Referee: Hollie Davidson (Scotland)
Assistant referees: Morné Ferreira (South Africa), Hanru Van Rooyen (South Africa)
TMO: Sam Grove-White (Scotland)

Ospreys v Dragons
(Swansea – Kick-off: 15.00; 14.00 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Ospreys by 12 points

Teams

Ospreys: 15 Jack Walsh, 14 Daniel Kasende, 13 Evardi Boshoff, 12 Keiran Williams, 11 Keelan Giles, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Morgan Morse, 7 Jac Morgan (captain), 6 James Ratti, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Spencer, 3 Ben Warren, 2 Dewi Lake, 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Sam Parry, 17 Steffan Thomas, 18 Tom Botha, 19 Will Griffiths, 20 Harri Deaves, 21 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 22 Owen Williams, 23 Iestyn Hopkins.

Dragons: 15 Ewan Rosser, 14 Harry Rees-Weldon, 13 Joe Westwood, 12 Aneurin Owen (captain), 11 Jared Rosser, 10 Angus O’Brien, 9 Rhodri Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Dan Lydiate, 6 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 5 Ryan Woodman, 4 Joe Davies, 3 Chris Coleman, 2 Brodie Coghlan, 1 Rhodri Jones.
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Dylan Kelleher-Griffiths, 18 Nathan Evans, 19 Barny Langton-Cryer, 20 George Young, 21 Che Hope, 22 Will Reed, 23 Huw Anderson.

Referee: Ben Breakspear (Scotland)
Assistant referees: Gareth Newman (Wales), Carwyn Sion (Wales)
TMO: Tom Spurrier (Scotland)

Stormers v Benetton
(Cape Town stadium – Kick-off: 18.15; 18.15 Italian time; 16.15 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Stormers by seven points

Teams

Stormers: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Seabelo Senatla, 13 Dan du Plessis, 12 Damian Willemse, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Stefan Ungerer, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Marcel Theunissen, 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Ruben van Heerden, 4 Salmaan Moerat (captain), 3 Sazi Sandi, 2 André-Hugo Venter, 1 Ali Vermaak.
Replacements: 16 JJ Kotze, 17 Vernon Matongo, 18 Brok Harris, 19 JD Schickerling, 20 Connor Evans, 21 Louw Nel, 22 Herschel Jantjies, 23 Suleiman Hartzenberg.

Benetton: 15 Leonardo Marin, 14 Ignacio Mendy, 13 Tommaso Menoncello, 12 Ignacio Brex, 11 Paolo Odogwu, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Alessandro Garbisi, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Riccardo Favretto, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Bautista Bernasconi, 1 Thomas Gallo.
Replacements: 16 Siua Maile, 17 Ivan Nemer, 18 Giosué Zilocchi, 19 Scott Scrafton, 20 Eli Snyman, 21 Manuel Zuliani, 22 Andy Uren, 23 Rhyno Smith.

Referee: Adam Jones (Wales)
Assistant referees: Aimee Barrett-Theron (South Africa), Griffin Colby (South Africa)
TMO: Craig Evans (Wales)

Scarlets v Leinster
(Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli – Kick-off: 17.15; 16.15 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Leinster by nine points

Teams

Scarlets: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Johnny Williams, 11 Ellis Mee, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Josh Macleod (captain), 6 Vaea Fifita, 5 Sam Lousi, 4 Alex Craig, 3 Henry Thomas, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Alec Hepburn.
Replacements: 16 Marnus van der Merwe, 17 Louie Trevett, 18 Sam Wainwright, 19 Jac Price, 20 Jarrod Taylor, 21 Archie Hughes, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Macs Page.

Leinster: 15 Ciarán Frawley, 14 Andrew Osborne, 13 Liam Turner, 12 Jamie Osborne, 11 Jimmy O’Brien, 10 Ross Byrne, 9 Fintan Gunne, 8 James Culhane, 7 Will Connors, 6 Alex Soroka, 5 Brian Deeny, 4 Ryan Baird, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 2 Rónan Kelleher (captain), 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Gus McCarthy, 17 Jack Boyle, 18 Rabah Slimani, 19 Diarmuid Mangan, 20 Scott Penny, 21 Cormac Foley, 22 Charlie Tector, 23 Ruben Moloney.

Referee: Mike Adamson (Scotland)
Assistant referees: Matthew Leon (Wales), Aaron Perry (Wales)
TMO: Colin Brett (Scotland)

Ulster v Sharks
(Ravenhill Stadium, Belfast – Kick-off: 19.35; 20.35 SA time; 18.35 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Sharks by five points

Teams

Ulster: 15 Jacob Stockdale, 14 Werner Kok, 13 Jude Postlethwaite, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Zac Ward, 10 Jack Murphy, 9 Nathan Doak, 8 James McNabney, 7 Nick Timoney, 6 Matty Rea, 5 Cormac Izuchukwu, 4 Alan O’Connor (captain), 3 Tom O’Toole, 2 Rob Herring, 1 Andrew Warwick.
Replacements: 16 Tom Stewart, 17 Callum Reid, 18 Scott Wilson, 19 Matthew Dalton, 20 Kieran Treadwell, 21 Dave Shanahan, 22 Aidan Morgan, 23 David McCann.

Sharks: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Ethan Hooker, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Jordan Hendrikse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Siya Kolisi, 7 Vincent Tshituka, 6 James Venter, 5 Jason Jenkins, 4 Eben Etzebeth (captain), 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Jurenzo Julius, 17 Fez Mbatha, 18 Ntuthuko Mchunu, 19 Hanro Jacobs, 20 Manu Tshituka, 21 Phepsi Buthelezi, 22 Bradley Davids, 23 Siya Masuku.

Referee: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)
Assistant referees: Padraic Reidy (Ireland), Paul Haycock (Ireland)
TMO: Keith David (Wales)

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* Additional reporting by @URCOfficial