Preview: South Africa v Wales
It is a nervous time for both camps as it always is at knock-out matches when the ball is oval.
It is the time when there is a chasm between winning and losing.
Winners' hearts beat with happiness and delight while losers are filled with gloom as they pack up their belongings for the long trudge home.
The possibility of losing and going home unsatisfied causes teams bitter fear.
The emotional gap between victory and defeat is huge, but the victory and defeat, Kipling's two imposters, can come about in such small moments – a forward pass missed, a slight forward pass seen, a missed drop, playing an opponent in the air, a Serge Blanco bit of genius, the bounce of the oval ball, the sudden change of fortune brought by an intercept, one of those idiotic knock-on offsides, and all the other vagaries of a rugby match, especially one played at the intensity that will characterise this match.
And the tension looks likely to last the whole match.
Wales came from behind to draw level with England and beat them. In the second half against Australia they had four successive five-metre line-outs when Australia held a narrow, very beatable lead.
The only match South Africa had at a similar level to those two played by Wales was against Scotland and it was in the second half that South Africa pulled away from Scotland from 20-13 to 34-16.
The Welsh pack is not made up of softies.
South Africa has long valued experience, but Wales with 479 caps is more experienced than the Springboks with 369 caps.
Players like Gethin Jenkins (123 caps), Alun-Wyn Jones (99 caps), Luke Charteris and Sam Warburton (61) and Dan Lydiate (52) are certainly experienced, but what South Africa is finding is that experience (longevity in the game) is not the be-all and end-all and players like Frans Malherbe, Lodewyk de Jager and Eben Etzebeth are worth gold.
There will be lots of physicality.
Teams believe that the way to beat the Springboks is to match them physically and even get on top of them.
Wales believe that with Dan Lydiate and Sam Warburton, working in tandem, they can win the vital tackle ball.
On the other hand Wales do not quite have the loose forward aggressive power of Duane Vermeulen and Schalk Burger.
Wales are likely to win their line-outs with tall (2,09m) Luke Charteris and Alun-Wyn Jones, but the Springboks, too, are likely to keep what is theirs.
The scrums may cause the Welsh problems if their performance against Australia is anything to go by.
Outside of the forwards, the Welsh backs – even deprived of Jonathan Davies, Leigh Halfpenny, Scott Williams, Corey Allen, Liam Williams, Hallam Amos and Rhys Webb – still look livelier and more creative than the Springboks backs, especially now that Willie le Roux is more staid and kicks more often.
Where Wales rush to get the ball to their wings, the Springbok wings are seldom fed.
That said, Bryan Habana and JP Pietersen with nine tries between them have outscored their Welsh counterparts, but then they have not had to play Australia and England.
Goal-kicking is vital, as was shown when Wales played Australia.
Dan Bigger of Wales, he of the St Vitus dance routine, and smooth Handré Pollard have scored roughly the same number of points, but Handré Pollard has had easier opponents and Biggar may even be the more reliable. Biggar has big match temperament as that winning kick against England showed.
Players to Watch
For Wales: Alun-Wyn Jones, who plays with the same passion with which he sings the national anthem, Taulupe Faletau, lively Gareth Davies, and wings George North and Alex Cuthbert.
For South Africa: Francois Louw, who does a ton of quiet work, 22-year-old Lodewyk de Jager, who has been the South African find of the year, clever Fourie du Preez, powerful Damian de Allende, and will-o'-the-wisp fullback Willie le Roux.
Head to Head: In the centre, where some of rugby's toughest conflicts occur, there is battle-hardened Jamie Roberts against Damian de Allende, 76 caps against 10 caps, old bull against young bull. So far Roberts has been mainly confined to crash ball, while De Allende can do that and also add clever footwork and excellent passing. Both men can tackle and may have to. There is another old bull- young bull confrontation in the front row – Gethin Jenkins against Frans Malherbe, 123 caps against nine. Locks against locks – Alun-Wyn Jones and Luke Charteris with 160 caps between them against Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager with 57. This contest will happen in the line-outs, less obviously in the scrums and more obviously in the tight loose where all four can make significant contributions. Scrumhalves are often in close conflict, and here, too, we have old bull against young bull – if bull is not too exaggerated a description of a scrumhalf where it should probably be old bantam against young bantam, though self-possessed Fourie du Preez is not well cast as a bantam. But Du Preez has had a long career and amassed 74 caps from 2004 while Gareth Davies's career started in 2014 and he has only eight caps. Du Preez is a wonderfully intuitive player, while Davies is livelier. General against general, flyhalf against flyhalf, Dan Biggar of Wales against Handré Pollard of South Africa. Both are their team's kickers, both run well with the ball in hand and both defend bravely. Pollard is more likely to run at Biggar than vice versa.
Recent results:
2014: Wales won 12-6, Cardiff
2014: South Africa won 31-30, Nelspruit
2014: South Africa won 38-16, Durban
2013: South Africa won 24-15, Cardiff
2011: South Africa won 17-16, Wellington, New Zealand
2010: South Africa won 29-25, Cardiff
2010: South Africa won 34-31, Cardiff
2008: South Africa won 20-15, Cardiff
2008: South Africa won 37-21, Pretoria
2008: South Africa won 43-17, Bloemfontein
South Africa and Wales have played 30 times. South Africa have won 27 times, Wales twice and one was drawn. the first Welsh victory was in 1999 and the other one, significantly, the last time the two teams met – just last year. The two teams met three times last year, South Africa winning two-one. The two won were in South Africa, the one lost in Cardiff. In fact there was little to choose between the two teams. Recent Results suggest that there is not much to choose between the two teams.
Previous World Cup
South Africa and Wales have played at only one previous World Cup – the last one, in New Zealand. It w
as a pool match, the first of Pool D, and South Africa, even though they scored two tries to one, were regarded as fortunate to win. Some of the players who played that day in Wellington are back again this time. For South Africa JP Pietersen, Bryan Habana, Fourie du Preez, Tendai Mtawarira and Schalk Burger are starting while Bismarck du Plessis came off the bench and while his brother Jannie, last time's starter, has subsided to the bench this time. Willem Alberts was on the bench then and now. Victor Matfield came off the field with a damaged hamstring in 2011 and is not available for selection because of a damaged hamstring in 2015. For Wales George North, Jamie Roberts, Luke Charteris, Alun-Wyn Jones, Dan Lydiate, Taulupe Faletau and Sam Warburton started. Bradley Davies was on the bench then and now while Rhys Priestland started then and is on the bench now. In 2011 Australia knocked South Africa out in the quarterfinal. Wales beat Ireland in the quarterfinal but lost 9-8 to France in the semifinal when they played with 14 men for 62 minutes of the match.
Common Opponents in 2015
Australia: South Africa lost 24-20 in Brisbane; Wales lost 15-6 at Twickenham
Scotland: South Africa won 34-16 in Newcastle; Wales won 26-23 at Murrayfield
Prediction: South Africa have the momentum at present, certainly they have recovered from when Brighton became their Pearl Harbour and, tentatively, not confidently, we suggest that the Springboks will win by about 10 points. But then we also thought they would beat Japan – as did most other people.
The Teams:
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Fourie du Preez (captain), 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Lodewyk de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Jannie du Plessis, 19 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 20 Willem Alberts, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Pat Lambie, 23 Jan Serfontein.
Wales: 15 Gareth Anscombe, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Tyler Morgan, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (captain), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun-Wyn Jones, 4 Luke Charteris, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Scott Baldwin, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Paul James, 18 Tom Francis, 19 Bradley Davies, 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Lloyd Williams, 22. Rhys Priestland, 23. James Hook.
Date: Saturday, 17 October 2014
Venue: Twickenham, London
Kick-off: 16.00 (15.00 GMT; 17.00 SA time)
Expected weather: Mostly cloudy with a high of 13°C, dropping to 9°C. No rain.
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant referees: George Clancy (Ireland), JP Doyle (England)
TMO: Graham Hughes (England)
By Paul Dobson
@rugby365com
