World Cup's 'one-hit wonders'

No, it is not another cliched dig at the All Blacks, it is the view of England's 2003 World Cup winner Jason Leonard.

He backs up his opinion with statistics from previous tournaments, with seemingly out of form teams eventually being crowned champions.

"The beauty of the World Cup is that you don't have to be the best team in the world for four years, you just have to be the best team in the world for  four weeks," Leonard said in Part Three of his interview with rugby365.

"Any team can pull off a shock or have one big game in them," he said, adding that France is a perfect example of that.

"If you look at their [France's] record over the years – they must seem like a bit of a nemeses for New Zealand.

"They can do that. All the money will be on France to lose by 30 points and then they produce this magnificent game and beat the best team in the world.

"That is the beauty of these games, because the margins between winning and losing are so fine nowadays."

Leonard said all it takes for a big team is one "off day" and their tournament is over.

He also bemoaned the peculiarity of the World Cup draw – based on their world rankings as far back as December 2012 – which has resulted in three pre-tournament favourites (England, Wales and Australia) landing up in the same pool.

"It is a shame you got three such big teams in one pool," he told rugby365, adding: "One of them, sadly, will go home.

"They will be fighting tooth and nail to ensure it is not them.

"All the other pools are pretty much sorted in terms of who will be the winners and runners-up coming through."

Leonard said the quarterfinals depend on what happens in Pool A – where host England, Wales and Australia will scrap it out.

"You could look at South African versus New Zealand on the one side of the draw, with England/Wales/Australia against Ireland on the other side of the draw.

"With England at home you would hope that would help them to perform, so it could be England against either South Africa or New Zealand in the Final.

"You would have to say that New Zealand looks like the favourite team, but South Africa have a great side as well.

"Even though we have seen a few slips recently, I know for a fact that South Africa will get through to the latter stages of the World Cup knock-outs.

"Then it comes down to one game, a World Cup Final – a bounce of the ball, a referee's decision, that is what could decide it.

"Whoever gets to the Final, it is going to be a very close affair. It will be a close margin, not a runaway score."

With a number of teams who have the potential to win in a Final and a number of World Cup finals decided by extra-time drop-goals or late winners, Leonard feels 2015 could be one of the most exciting tournaments ever.

"I think it could happen in this tournament again," he said when asked about the fact that – apart from the inaugural Final in 1987, with three – there  has never been more than two tries in a Final.

In fact both South Africa's triumphs – 15-12 over New Zealand in 1995 and 15-6 over England in 2007 – were tryless finals.

Australia's two World Cup victories – 12-6 over England in 1991 and 35-12 over France in 1999 – produced just one try.

"There are genuinely six teams that could get through to the Final and win it as well," Leonard said.

"It bodes well for a great tournament."

By Jan de Koning

@King365ed

@rugby365com

* This interview was made possible by leading energy company SSE, the Official Presenting Partner of Building Jerusalem and is giving its customers an exclusive ticket offer for the one-night-only cinema release on 1st September via ssereward.com