Three-way rankings race: Come in No.1

SPOTLIGHT: Ireland, South Africa and New Zealand could all be ranked #1 in the world in a few days’ time, adding another fascinating sub-plot to what should be a brilliant weekend of Test matches.

As many as 13 matches, including some notable World Cup 2023 replays, will count towards the rankings, but it’s what happens at the top that will grab most people’s attention.

South Africa conceded No.1 status to Ireland when they lost to Argentina in September, bringing to an end a 13-month unbroken reign, dating back to the quarterfinals of World Cup 2023.

Ireland have been ranked first in the six weeks since but Friday night’s clash against the All Blacks in Dublin is the first time they have been tested on the field of play since replacing the Springboks at No.1.

Andy Farrell’s side are guaranteed to remain on top of the rankings if they beat the All Blacks and extend their winning record at home to 20 matches, regardless of the outcome of South Africa’s match against Scotland at Murrayfield.

However, if Ireland fail to win, South Africa will return to No.1 in the world if they make it nine wins in a row against Scotland.

A draw would also be enough for the Springboks if Ireland lose.

New Zealand’s 24-22 win over England at Twickenham may not have led to them improving on third place but it has put them in a position to climb to first place this weekend.

The All Blacks haven’t been No.1 since the World Cup 2019 semifinal, but it will be theirs for the taking if they beat Ireland and South Africa lose to Scotland, a scenario which would see the All Blacks leapfrog both sides.

If South Africa draws with Scotland then New Zealand must have beaten Ireland by more than 15 points in the earlier of the two kick-offs to claim the top spot and effectively swap places with Ireland.

Meanwhile, France cannot improve their rating in fourth with victory over Japan as a result of the 14.65 points difference between the sides before home weighting is factored in.

However, there is scope for plenty of movement among the other teams in action in the year-end Tests this weekend.

Four teams can end the weekend in fourth – incumbents France and then Argentina, England and Scotland if Les Bleus lose at home to Japan.

Los Pumas will jump two places to fourth if they beat Italy and France are beaten on home soil by Japan, regardless of what England do against Australia.

For England to climb to fourth they must not only defeat Australia, but also hope that Argentina and Scotland fail to win and France lose by more than 15 points.

If Argentina and Scotland do win then England will fall a place to sixth even if they beat the Wallabies by more than 15 points – two if France’s defeat is by a smaller margin. England have not been as low as seventh since February 2016.

Italy are currently at their highest-ever position of eighth and cannot go any higher, even if they beat Argentina by more than 15 points as there is not a combination of results to make this possible.

The Azzurri could beat Los Pumas and still fall a place if Australia beat England at Twickenham.

As for the match in Cardiff, there is a lot riding on the outcome for both Wales and Fiji. Fiji could climb as many as two places with victory over Wales, but it is dependent on the scoreline and results of other matches involving teams around them.

Wales cannot improve on 11th place even if they beat Fiji by more than 15 points, although the deficit between themselves and the top 10 would be cut to just 0.03 rating points.

There is a scenario where Wales could drop to a new low of 12th – if they lose to Fiji by more than 15 points and Japan beat France by the same margin.

Japan would jump three places in this case, also climbing above both Samoa and Georgia who are not in test action this weekend, with the latter playing the All Blacks XV in Montpellier.

By Jon Newcombe
@RugbyPass