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World Rankings: Will there be a top-four shuffle?

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA - JULY 08: General view during the South African national men's rugby team training session at Johannesburg Stadium on July 08, 2026 in Johannesburg, South Africa. (Photo by Ashley Vlotman/Gallo Images)

PREVIEW: World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for this weekend’s second rounds of the Nations Championship and World Rugby Nations Cup.

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South Africa will surrender top spot if they lose to Scotland by more than 15 points and New Zealand beat Italy.

A first-ever loss to Italy will see New Zealand fall a place to third if Ireland beat Japan in Australia.

France can replace Ireland in third if they beat Australia and the Irish lose to Japan, providing one of the margins is by more than 15 points.

Japan will enter the top 10 for the first time since July 2023 if they win and Italy and Wales fail to beat New Zealand and Argentina.

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England could go as high as fourth with victory over Fiji, providing Scotland lose and France are beaten by more than 15 points.

Seventh is possible for Fiji with a big win and Australian defeat, but they can’t quite catch opponents England this weekend.

Scotland can lose the two places they gained for beating Argentina if they are beaten and England and Los Pumas win, the latter by more than 15 points. However, a win could take them to a new high with third or fourth possible.

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Wales will return to the top 10 for the first time since July 2024 if they beat Los Pumas and Italy fail to overcome New Zealand.

Georgia will remain in 13th whatever happens in their World Rugby Nations Cup encounter with Samoa.

Uruguay, Portugal and Chile can only make marginal gains if they are victorious against the lower-ranked Romania, Canada and Hong Kong China, respectively.

Romania could become the lowest-ranked team in the tournament if they lose and Hong Kong China, Canada and Zimbabwe all cause upsets.

Samoa, Spain and Tonga could all climb as high as 14th with wins depending on the margin of victory and other results around them.

Hong Kong China could equal their all-time high of 21st with victory over Chile, the side they will face again at Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027.

USA won’t get any reward for beating Zimbabwe in the first meeting between the sides, but defeat could see them drop up to five places and lift the Sables to a new high of their own depending on other results.

World Rugby Men’s Rankings Top 25

1. South Africa – 93.94
2. New Zealand – 91.04
3. Ireland – 89.32
4. France – 86.75
5. Scotland – 84.71
6. England – 83.91
7. Argentina – 83.77
8. Australia – 81.28
9. Fiji – 79.53
10. Italy – 77.31
11. Wales – 76.68
12. Japan – 76.42
13. Georgia – 72.67
14. USA – 69.40
15. Portugal – 68.51
16. Uruguay – 68.46
17. Chile – 67.31
18. Samoa – 66.91
19. Tonga – 66.88
20. Spain – 66.64
21. Belgium – 61.02
22. Romania – 60.08
23. Canada – 59.63
24. Hong Kong China – 59.14
25. Zimbabwe – 58.59

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