Preview: Australia v South Africa

RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND THREE: Two teams under fire meet at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on Saturday – Australia and South Africa.

Both were beaten in the last round, Australia by New Zealand and South Africa by Argentina.

Neither has been having good years – in Super rugby or at Test level.

Both are losing the trust and confidence of their public.

Both have coaches who were formerly international players, both in need of support, Michael Cheika more than Rassie Erasmus.

But, despite that, both have the confidence to make changes that give their teams an experimental air, as 2019 and its World Cup approach.

Australia’s selection of Matt Toomua and the choice of Kurtley Beale at flyhalf in the place of Bernard Foley suggest that.

South Africa’s introduction of Cheslin Kolbe and omission of players specialised in winning the ball at tackles, suggest that, too.

But both sides will be out there flat out to win, to improve on mediocre seasons.

Season so far:
Australia has played five Tests, winning one and losing four.
South Africa have played six, winning three and losing three. They have played three opponents, losing to all three.

Neither country has a secure laurel to rest on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdMWnY6oGVQ

Players to Watch

For Australia: There are the obvious ones – athletic, skilful Israel Folau, who is one of the best in the world; Will Genia with his speed and accuracy of passing and sudden breaks, who is also one of the best in the world and Kurtley Beale, who can produce gold amidst the dross and whose job may well be to show up his immediate Springbok opponent, Elton Jantjies. Then there are the benchers and the impact that they can make, players like Bernard Foley, Taniela Tupou and Ned Hanigan.

For South Africa: Willie le Roux, often a magician at fullback, sometimes turning his contact shyness in to a creative virtue; Francois de Klerk, so much his own man, such a delightful character, able in a flash to play the alchemist, turning lead into gold; and Pieter-Stef du Toit for unrelenting, fearless effort. Then there are the benchers and the impact that they can make, players like Malcolm Marx, Wilco Louw and mercurial Cheslin Kolbe from the Springbok bench.

Head to Head: The contest at the tackle, which could well decide the outcome of the match. South Africa had two tackle robbers – Malcolm Marx and Francois Louw. Now it has none, replacing them with ball-carriers while hoping, no doubt, to be able to thump Michael Hooper away, especially now that David Pocock has been ruled out with a neck injury. Kurtley Beale versus Elton Jantjies. Both are skilled players, Beale the stronger and more capable of making the sudden break. Jantjies has more experience in the position; Beale is better able to improvise. Israel Folau versus Willie le Roux – players at opposite ends of the field, both clever and skilled enough to turn a game. Their abilities in dealing with the ball in the air may have the excellent effect of discouraging aimless kicking. The battle of the locks – Adam Coleman and Rory Arnold against Franco Mostert and Eben Etzebeth, four men who would not let any side in the world down. Their battles in the line-outs and on bashing occasions could produce good, old-fashioned conflict.

The Brisbane Jinx

The Springboks have played 14 times in Brisbane, winning three and losing eleven. At Suncorp Stadium, whose pre-sponsor name was Lang Park, the Springboks have won two out of 10 – in 1956 and 2013.

Prediction: Each of the last two Tests between Australia and South Africa has ended in a draw; their solitary draw prior to that was in 2001 – only against New Zealand (seven) have Australia drawn more matches. Australia has lost just one of their last nine Tests against South Africa in Australia, remaining undefeated against them on home soil since 2013. Australia has won their last four games on the bounce at Suncorp Stadium, including two when they had been trailing at half-time; only at the Sydney Cricket Ground (31) and Ballymore Stadium (29) do the Wallabies have more overall Test wins than they do at Suncorp Stadium (23). Australia has only one Test triumph to their name so far in 2018, the last time they won fewer than five Tests in a calendar year was in 1995. South Africa have won only one of their last 10 games played away from home in The Rugby Championship, and have won just two of their last seven away games overall. South Africa (193) are just seven shy of their 200th try scored against Australia; they would be the first opposition against whom they’ve crossed for a double-century of tries and just the second team to have done so against Australia (New Zealand 450). Australia has won 100% of their scrums in six of their last seven matches, overall winning 41 of 43 scrums in that time. South Africa made 22 clean breaks against Argentina in Round 2 of The Rugby Championship 2018, their most in a single Test since they made 23 clean breaks against Australia in September 2017. Australia’s David Pocock and South Africa’s Malcolm Marx have each won six turnovers at The Rugby Championship in 2018, more than any other players in the tournament. Warren Whiteley has made 21 tackles so far this campaign, the most of any player who is yet to miss a single tackle attempt. This is always a silly thing to do, which is a good thing as it tells of the spicy unpredictability of rugby matches, but we are willing to say South Africa by four points or so.

Teams

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Reece Hodge, 12 Matt Toomua, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Will Genia, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Michael Hooper (captain), 6 Lukhan Tui, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Folau Fainga’a, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Izack Rodda, 20 Ned Hanigan, 21 Joe Powell, 22 Bernard Foley, 23 Jack Maddocks.

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Makazole Mapimpi, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Tendai Mtawarira, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Rudolph Snyman, 20 Francois Louw, 21 Embrose Papier, 22 Handré Pollard, 23 Cheslin Kolbe.

Date: Saturday, 8 September 20018
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Kick-off: 20.00 (12.00 SA time; 10.00 GMT)
Expected weather: An 80 percent chance of rain, with a high of 24°C and a low of 12°C.
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: John Lacey (Ireland), Paul Williams (New Zealand)
TMO: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)

By Paul Dobson
@rugby365com

* Stats by Opta Sport