Preview: Semifinal - NZ v Aus
Saving the presence of Wales and France, this match has a RWC Final look about it. The IRB’s rankings confirm this – No.1 is playing No.2.
They are the best teams, and the winner will be in a great position to win the Final. It could be 1987 revisited – a big win for the winner of this match.
But who is going to win the match? Each side has the opportunity and capability of winning. Look at the semifinal and there are no foregone conclusions.
The Wallabies can tackle. That much was proven under siege in Wellington last week – 147 tackles and not a try scored against them. For all their clever backs, the All Blacks found it tough to play against a tackling side. They were one-try each against the Pumas till Brad Thorn’s try with two minutes to go. They found the Pumas a tough nut to crack. The Wallabies are likely to be a tougher nut.
Will the New Zealand pack be able to exert the same measure of dominance over the Wallabies as the South African pack did last week? Quite possibly, but if they do not, then they will have to cope with the shocks and surprises of the Wallaby backs more than the Springboks had to and Quade Cooper may find life less intimidating.
The late loss of Kurtley Beale is a serious blow to the Wallabies. He is such a telling presence at fullback. The option of Beale at fullback and Adam Ashley-Cooper at centre is a much better one than the possibility of Ashley-Cooper at fullback and Anthony Fainga’a at centre. His absence takes a lot of pressure off the All Blacks.
Players to Watch:
For New Zealand: Israel Dagg of New Zealand. He is a player who can, with a smile, smash a game wide open. Piri Weepu is such a talented footballer and his performance and how he cares for Aaron Cruden could well be crucial.
For Australia: Digby Ioane is capable of scoring a try from anywhere in any situation – and he also does it with a smile. And quirky Quade Cooper is always a centre of interest and will doubtless be singled out for rude attention by certain unsporting elements in the crowd. How he will perform, is a matter of great interest and could have an important bearing on the result.
Head to Head: There is a tough contest between David Pocock of Australia and Richie McCaw of New Zealand with the famous All Black battling to regain his crown as Pirate Chief. Then there is the more delicate contest between the most eccentric players on each side – Quade Cooper of Australia and Aaron Cruden of New Zealand. They are unpredictable and capable of putting the cat amongst the pigeons. Cory Jane of New Zealand is up against Digby Ioane of Australia on the one wing and on the other there is the precise running and positional play of Richard Kahui against the skill and greater speed of James O’Connor. The contest could begin at scrumhalf – Will Genia of Australia against wily Piri Weepu. It is a contest that Genia, with his greater speed and al-round ability, could well win. If he does, that could be a major contribution to the winning of the match. Goalkicking will count, and against the Pumas Piri Weepu was unerring while James O’Connor was the one who kicked the pressure kick last weekend.
Recent Results:
2011: Australia won 25-20, Brisbane
2011: New Zealand won 30-14, Auckland
2010: Australia won 26-24, Hong Kong
2010: New Zealand won 23-22, Sydney
2010: New Zealand won 20-10, Christchurch
2010: New Zealand won 49-28, Melbourne
2009: New Zealand won 32-19, Tokyo
2009: New Zealand won 33-6, Wellington
2009: New Zealand won 19-18, Sydney
2009: New Zealand won 22-16, Auckland
Prediction: In general history favours New Zealand but what about two victories for the maturing Wallabies in their last three matches? Both sides can certainly win, but let’s be bold and say the Wallabies by two points in a thriller.
The teams:
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Richard Kahui, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Brad Thorn, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Hore, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Ali Williams, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Andy Ellis, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Sonny Bill Williams.
Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 James O’Connor, 13 Anthony Fainga’a, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Radike Samo, 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 James Horwill (captain), 4 Dan Vickerman, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Sekope Kepu.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota Nau, 17 James Slipper, 18 Rob Simmons, 19 Ben McCalman, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Berrick Barnes, 22 Rob Horne.
Date: Sunday, October 16
Kick-off: 21.00 (08.00 GMT)
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Expected weather: No rain. Partly cloudy with a high of 18°C, dropping to 11°C.
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (Wales), Romain Poite (France)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)
By Paul Dobson
