Preview: South Africa vs Australia
It is the 80th Test between South Africa and Australia, Springboks and Wallabies, at Newlands on Saturday.
The first Test between the two countries was also at Newlands, in 1933 when the Springboks won 17-3, and much of South Africa was outspokenly upset, because the Springboks had played such stodgy rugby compared with the adventurous, enthusiastic young Australians.
As a result of the public outcry the Springbok captain Bennie Osler changed the game plan and the Springboks lost the second Test 6-21 in Durban.
Lots of Springbok supporters would be happy with a 17-3 win at Newlands on Saturday, however obtained.
In the first 60 years of rugby between the two countries, there were 29 Tests of which the Springboks won 21. In the next 21 years there have been 59 Tests. One was drawn, the Springboks won 35, the Wallabies 24.
Does home ground count? Of course, but the Springboks have won 11 times in Australia to the Wallabies' nine times in South Africa.
Will history be made if the Wallabies win at Newlands?
No. They won there in 1953 in an astonishing 18-14 win after being 3-14 down at one stage in the second half, 1953 when the great Wallabies came to close to winning the series and in the wet in 1992 when South Africa was again allowed to play rugby Tests.
It's been done before all right, but it will still be a notable achievement even if in the last 10 years, Australia lead 14-12 in Tests played.
The most recent result was the last-minute, one-point victory for the Wallabies in Perth when Bryan Habana was shown a horrible yellow card and Morné Steyn did not find touch.
The teams each have three changes to their starting XV for this match.
For South Africa the halves, Morné Steyn and Ruaan Pienaar, are changed and Teboho Mohoje replaces injured Francois Louw.
The Wallaby changes are Rob Horne, Wycliff Palu and hooker James Hanson,
That means the core is the same. That means we could probably expect the Springboks to be in the ascendant in the line-outs and scrums, while the Wallabies dominate the breakdowns.
Where the Wallabies had a really profitable dominance was in the kick-off, scoring a try from the first kick-off of the match, when they kicked off and Israel Folau caught the ball.
Both sides are likely to be stronger where they were weaker, and that goes for the Springbok backs who gave the rampant All Blacks a battle. That said, the Wallaby backs, from Nick Phipps to Israel Folau, look to have much greater creativity and variety.
Both sides have strong benches with the experience and force to make an impact.
Discipline will count. But so far this championship neither team is heavily penalised and neither side has suffered a large number of yellow cards. Though if Bryan Habana can get one – anybody can.
In fact there is little to choose between the two sides.
Players to watch:
For South Africa: Fullback Willie le Roux who certainly cannot again be as pedestrian as he was in Wellington, promising Handré Pollard who is the hope of a nation, and muscular Duane Vermeulen.
For Australia: Fullback Israel Folau, surprising Bernard Foley and action-man Michael Hooper.
Head to Head: Willie le Roux versus Israel Folau, Handré Pollard versus Bernard Foley and front row versus front row (Tendai Mtawarira, Adriaan Strauss and Jannie du Plessis vs James Slipper, Saia Fainga'a and Sekope Kepu). Then there will be the contest between the scrumhalves – Francois Hougaard vs Nick Phipps, which could be crucial. Goal-kicker versus goal-kicker – Handré Pollard vs Bernard Foley, each capable of great accuracy.
Recent Results
2014: Australia won 24-23, Perth
2013: South Africa won 28-8, Cape Town
2013: South Africa won 38-12, Brisbane
2012: South Africa won 31-8, Pretoria
2012: Australia won 26-19, Perth
2011: Australia won 11-9, Wellington
2011: Australia won 14-9, Durban
2011: Australia won 39-20, Sydney
2010: Australia won 41-39, Bloemfontein
2010: South Africa won 44-31, Pretoria
2010: Australia won 30-13, Brisbane
Prediction: Rugby is a game of consequences and much can depend on a little – a small spark of genius, like Pollard's pass to Cornal Hendricks, or a seemingly innocuous error, like not finding touch. It's not a great Springbok side but it showed great character and strength of purpose in Perth and Wellington. It's not a great Wallaby side despite the watery draw in Sydney and the undying determination in Perth. Taking all things into consideration and not relying too much on brain power we predict a Springbok victory by about eight points.
Teams
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 Jan Serfontein, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Teboho Mohoje, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Marcel van der Merwe, 19 Bakkies Botha, 20 Schalk Burger, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Pat Lambie, 23 JP Pietersen.
Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Toomua, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Sam Carter, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Saia Fainga'a, 1 James Slipper
Replacements: 16 James Hanson, 17 Benn Robinson, 18 Ben Alexander, 19 James Horwill, 20 Scott Higginbotham, 21 Nic White, 22 Kurtley Beale, 23 Rob Horne.
Date: Saturday, 27 September 2014
Venue: Newlands, Cape Town
Kick-off: 17.00 (15.00 GMT; 01.00, Sunday, September 28 AEST)
Expected weather: Sunny with a southeasterly breeze, a high of 14°C and a low of 9°C.
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Assistant referees: Wayne Barnes (England), Mathieu Raynal (France)
TMO: Graham Hughes (England)
By Paul Dobson
