England v South Africa - Teams and Prediction

PREVIEW – LONDON: According to Springbok head coach Rassie Erasmus, England will be going back to the basics for their clash against the Springboks at Twickenham Stadium.

Steve Borthwick’s side are a desperate bunch after losing their last four matches in a row. That includes very tight defeats to New Zealand (22-24) and Australia (37-42) at home in their November campaign.

The Springboks, on the other hand, have started their end-of-year series with a 32-15 victory over Scotland last weekend.

Ahead of Saturday’s showdown in London, Erasmus believes he has a good idea of what to expect from his opponents.

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“At Leicester, his [Borthwick’s] game plan was very much driven around pressure, physicality and the kicking game and the scraps around the kicking game,” said Erasmus.

“When you lose two games, even if it’s by a point or a last-minute try, the pressure does start to build.

“I’ve been there, and I certainly know how quickly that can get to you and then one normally falls back on what works.

“I think they have been successful like that in the past, so we very much expect them to try and squeeze us with the kicking game.”

Erasmus also understands what it is like to be on the other side of pressure.

“Two or three years ago we lost three on the trot when Jacques [Nienaber] was the coach and the next one was New Zealand and we almost lost four on the trot.

“It depends on the men in the room and the management in the room. It also depends on your CEO and your board.

“Do they make you feel safe, or do they make you feel like you’ve got a gun against your head?”

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It’s been said that there are fine margins between winning and losing and Borthwick has experienced that a lot over the last 12 months, starting with that 15-16 defeat to the Springboks in last year’s World Cup semifinal.

After those close defeats to the All Blacks and Wallabies during the November series series, the Rugby Football Union said they are continuing to give the former England captain their full support, despite a lot of outside noise from critics.

Borthwick, speaking after naming his side on Thursday, said: “When you are coaching England, there are always things on the outside. There always is.”

He was adamant that but for a “couple of little things”, everyone would be “talking this team up as having a very, very good Autumn [November]”.

‘Ball’s not gone our way’

“But we haven’t,” Borthwick said.

“The ball’s not gone our way, the language outside is a different language.

“So, the reality always is get better today, and that’s always my intention as a coach and my intention with the team.”

Borthwick, a former lock, added: “It is one of my strengths that I just focus and compartmentalise pretty well.

“My job is to coach this team, I love coaching this team, I am loyal to this group of players, and we’ve got to do things better than what we have.”

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England’s late woes

*England has repeatedly blown leads late in games since an agonising 2023 World Cup semifinal loss to the Springboks.

We take looks at some of the most dramatic reversals in that time, with England now on a run of four straight defeats:

October 21, 2023 v South Africa, World Cup semifinal, Saint-Denis:
LOST 15-16, England winning 15-13 after 77 minutes

March 16, 2024 v France, Six Nations, Lyon:
LOST 31-33, England winning 31-30 after 79 minutes

July 6, 2024, v New Zealand, Dunedin:
LOST 15-16, England winning 15-13 after 65 minutes

July 13, 2024, v New Zealand, Auckland:
LOST 17-24, England winning 17-13 after 60 minutes

November 2, 2024, v New Zealand, Twickenham:
LOST 22-24, England winning 17-22 after 75 minutes

November 9, 2024, v Australia, Twickenham:
LOST 37-42, England winning 37-35 after 83 minutes

Players to watch

For England: Fullback Freddie Steward and scrumhalf Jack van Poortvliet are back in the starting line-up. Steward has shown in the past how brilliant he can be under the high ball, which means England will surely bombard the Springboks with some pinpoint kicks. Ollie Sleightholme, who came off the bench to score two tries against Australia, is given his first start on the left wing, with Sam Underhill chosen at openside flank. Marcus Smith retains his place at flyhalf and he can be a real attacking threat if his forwards can provide a platform for him against a powerful Springbok back.

For South Africa: Rassie Erasmus has made 12 changes and it sees a host of veterans returning to the starting line-up. A big spotlight will be on prop Wilco Louw, who will play his first Test match since 2021. He has been impressive for the Bulls in the United Rugby Championship and Erasmus will be hoping it translates back on the Test stage. Manie Libbok gets the reins at flyhalf and his battle with Marcus Smith will be an intriguing one. Libbok can be great to watch with ball in hand, but his kicking game will need to be on point this weekend with England having Freddie Steward at the back. Aphelele Fassi is back in the No.15 jersey for the Boks and he has been in fine form in all areas of the game.

Prediction

@rugby365com: South Africa by 10 points.

Teams:

England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Henry Slade, 11 Ollie Sleightholme, 10 Marcus Smith, 9 Jack van Poortvliet, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Chandler Cunningham-South, 5 George Martin, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Will Stuart, 2 Jamie George (captain), 1 Ellis Genge.
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Nick Isiekwe, 20 Alex Dombrandt; 21 Harry Randall, 22 George Ford, 23 Tom Roebuck.

South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 RG Snyman, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Elrigh Louw, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Handre Pollard, 23 Lukhanyo Am.

Date: Saturday, November 16
Venue: Twickenham Stadium, London
Kick-off: 17.40 (17.40 GMT; 19.40 SAST)
Expected weather: It will be cloudy with a slight breeze. Temperatures will drop to around 6°C in the evening.
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Chris Busby (Ireland), Eoghan Cross (Ireland)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)

🥁Drum roll….Your #Spingboks team 🚨

🔗 https://t.co/77FvD9kHHI#Rugby365 #autumnnationsseries #England pic.twitter.com/Ve1GdzbOTp

— rugby365.com (@rugby365com) November 14, 2024

Additional reporting: AFP