Preview: South Africa v England

Which team will make significant advances on what they did in Durban last Saturday? Both teams claim to have learnt from that match and both claim that they will be better. Will they be? Which one will be better enough to win this time?

England will claim that they now know what to expect from the Springboks – as if they could not have known before, except, of course, that now they may know the size of the physical force to expect – the reality after only a mental idea. They may also take heart from their injury-time try and wonder why they had waited till injury time to bring speed and verve into their game.

South Africa base their claim on a longer time to prepare and to bond. They will take heart from the improved performance of the second half when suddenly they lifted the tempo of their game.

The two teams were close enough in Durban to suggest that either could win – a 22-17 winning score is not convincing. But then if those kicks had gone over, if those chances had become points…

England will hope to scrum better; South Africa will hope to consolidate the breakdown. They may even want to get the ball in action more quickly – as happened after Ruan Pienaar came on. François Hougaard's delaying tactics were stultifying.

The England forwards will have to improve greatly to achieve parity.

Behind the scrum, England have two excellent runners with the ball in Ben Foden who has the greater freedom of fullback and Chris Ashton who can break a game open. How much ball will get to them beyond their centres remains to be seen for, if Manu Tuilagi again relies on muscle, the clever backs may have a lean time of it and England will lose.

Goal-kicking always counts. South Africa's goalkicking in Durban was wasteful but Morné Steyn is back in the surety of the Highveld and he has accurate Patrick Lambie with him. They are both probably more reliable kickers than Toby Flood who may not get close enough often enough to have an effect on the game.

Both sides have had injuries from last week. England have lost their excellent fullback, Mike Brown, and their rugged centre Brad Barrett who had to stay at home in Durban to have his eye repaired. South Africa have lost their fullback Zane Kirchner and prop Coenie Oosthuizen with a worrying neck injury. Oosthuizen came off the bench last week but immediately showed the value of his strength and unusual skills.

Players to Watch:

From South Africa: Bryan Habana, the best back on the field in Durban on attack and defence.  If he again turns on the electricity and team-mates can get to him  they could be rewarded with tries. Jean de Villiers had an excellent game last weekend and this weekend he is up against newboy Jonathan Joseph. Then there are two questions: Will Willem Alberts be rampaging again this week? Will François Hougaard get a move on? And, oh, you will see Bismarck du Plessis whose force in the team is growing.

For England: Those clever, effective runners Ben Foden and Chris Ashton have the ability to change a game. You will take notice of Manu Tuilagi of the might frame.

Head to Head: The scrumhalf squabble – François Hougaard v Ben Youngs – small men who are unafraid of confrontation. Big François Steyn vs big Manu Tuilagi – with the possibility of the most powerful centre conflict in international rugby. The battle between two strong front rows with their short fuses.

Recent Results:

2012: South Africa won 22-17 in Durban

2010: South Africa won 21-11 in London

2008: South Africa won 42-6 in London

2007: South Africa won 15-6 in Paris

2007: South Africa won 36-0 in Paris

2007: South Africa won 55-22 in Pretoria

2007: South Africa won 58-10 in Bloemfontein

2006: South Africa won 25-14 in London

2006: England won 23-21 in London

2004: England won 32-16 in London

2003: England won 25-6 in Perth

Prediction: It will again be physical with South Africa looking better equipped to be physical. They may well be more confident this week than they were last week, but without reason to fall for the self destructive wiles of overconfidence.  We take the Springboks to win by more than 10 points.

The teams:

South Africa: 15 Pat Lambie, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jean de Villiers (captain), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 François Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.

Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Werner Kruger, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Keegan Daniel, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Wynand Olivier, 22 Bjorn Basson.

England: 15 Ben Foden, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Manusamoa Tuilagi, 11 David Strettle, 10 Toby Flood, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Ben Morgan, 7 Chris Robshaw (captain), 6 Tom Johnson, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Mouritz Botha, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley, 1 Joe Marler.

Replacements: 16 Lee Mears, 17 Alex Corbisiero, 18 Tom Palmer, 19 Thomas Waldrom, 20 Lee Dickson, 21 Owen Farrell, 22 Alex Goode.

Date: Saturday, June 16

Kick-off: 17.05 (15.05 GMT)

Venue: Coca Cola Park (Ellis Park), Johannesburg

Expected weather conditions: Sunny with a high of 12°C, dropping to 2°C – a crisp Highveld winter's day.

Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland)

Assistant referees: Steve Walsh (Australia), Simon McDowell (Ireland)

TMO: Iain Ramage (Scotland)

By Paul Dobson