Six Nations upsets will give Rassie food for thought
OPINION: The decline of England, as well as the rise of Scotland, should influence the Springboks’ plans ahead of the July Tests.
The 2026 Six Nations has served up a number of surprises.
From the outset, it appeared to be a two-horse title race between England and France, with the final round fixture in Paris potentially doubling as a Grand Slam decider.
Yet here we are four rounds later, with France, Scotland and Ireland in the running for the trophy – and with England and France’s Grand Slam dreams in tatters.
Italy have been the most improved team on show, and have claimed monumental wins against Scotland and England.
Since that early loss in Rome, Scotland have clawed their way back to beat England, Wales and most notably France.
The fourth round of the tournament was full of surprises, and arguably the biggest shock of all was the 50-40 scoreline in Edinburgh.
France fought back to claim a losing bonus point and retain their lead at the top of the table by the slimmest of margins.
But there’s no getting round the fact that France leaked 50 points, or that their high-tempo, high-offload game was kept in check by the Scots for the better part of 50 minutes.
No matter what happens in the final round, the vulnerabilities of France and England have been laid bare – and other teams, including the Boks, will have taken note.
Indeed, more than one bubble has burst over the past few weeks.
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They were all expecting the pull back pass to Russell…not this time!#GuinnessM6N #Since1883 pic.twitter.com/64RfhCV6s0
— Guinness Men’s Six Nations (@SixNationsRugby) March 8, 2026
At the start of the tournament, England were talked up as the north’s best bet for a win against the Boks in 2026, after racking up 12 victories in a row.
But after losing to Scotland, Ireland and Italy, they’re clearly not the well-oiled machine many believed them to be. If they lose to France this weekend and to the Boks in July, coach Steve Borthwick may lose his job.
Following three bonus-point victories against Ireland, Wales and Italy, France were hailed as the title frontrunners and coach Fabien Galthié was praised for balancing the quest for results with the drive to develop younger players ahead of the 2027 World Cup.
After the victory against Italy, it was France rather than England who appeared destined to win the Grand Slam, and to challenge the likes of the Boks and All Blacks for the No.1 ranking in 2026.
Then they were brought to earth at Murrayfield by a smarter and sharper Scotland side.
ALSO READ: ‘Hugely disappointing’: RFU issue statement on Borthwick and England
France shouldn’t be written off after one bad performance in Edinburgh – and South African fans will remember what happened after the Boks lost 22-38 to the Wallabies in Johannesburg last season.
Rassie Erasmus’ charges went on to win four of the next five Rugby Championship matches and made a statement via record-breaking victories against the All Blacks in Wellington and Argentina in Durban.
And yet, the manner of that Edinburgh defeat will be keenly felt in the French coaching box.
France have led the Six Nations across most metrics this season, and defence has been one of their strengths.
How did they conspire to leak 50 points and seven tries at Murrayfield? Every team has a bad day every now and then, but top-ranked sides rarely concede 50 points.
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Scotland’s trophy cabinet continues to grow!#GuinnessM6N #Since1883 pic.twitter.com/8IUCbKNTci
— Guinness Men’s Six Nations (@SixNationsRugby) March 8, 2026
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Credit must go to Scotland, of course, who have grown stronger as the tournament has progressed.
If they beat Ireland in Dublin – which they’ve never managed to do under Gregor Townsend – they will put themselves in the frame for a first title since the tournament expanded to six teams.
They would then need England to do them a favour by beating France in the latter game staged in Paris.
Some might say that is an unlikely outcome, given England’s recent result in Rome, but France’s performance in Edinburgh showed why they aren’t as strong or settled as first thought.
Erasmus and his lieutenants will be watching the events of ‘Super Saturday’ closely, with a view to facing each of the six teams later this season.
Given the history between England and South Africa, the opening Nations Championship game at Ellis Park on July 4 was always going to be a big one.
As recently as a month ago, plenty of fans and pundits were billing it as a potential clash between the best in the north and the best in the south.
The narrative has changed in recent weeks, and at this stage, England are fifth in the Six Nations standings.
No matter what the outcome in Paris this week, it will be interesting to see how England approach that game in Joburg.
Their Six Nations campaign has been characterised by a lack of intensity, and reports in England suggest that the leadership group has fractured. The team’s discipline has been an issue, as has their defence.
It’s not hard to see how it could go from bad to worse for England when they arrive on the Highveld at the end of a long and largely unsuccessful northern-hemisphere season.
Few would have predicted it, but the Boks’ clash against Scotland in Pretoria on July 11 may be the toughest of the Boks’ three-Test schedule.
The journey to South Africa is now an annual requirement for the Glasgow Warriors and Edinburgh, and the players are familiar with the conditions in the Republic.
What’s more, the Glasgow players will have fond memories of Loftus Versfeld, having won the United Rugby Championship final against the Bulls at the same venue in 2024.
It may seem highly unlikely at this stage, but if this edition of the Six Nations has taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected. Test rugby as a whole has never been less predictable.
The Boks can lose to a struggling Wallabies side in Joburg, Argentina can beat the All Blacks home and away, Italy can edge England, and Scotland can put 50 points past France.
With all that in mind, is a Scotland win at Loftus so hard to imagine? At the very least, the threat should be acknowledged.
What Erasmus and company will also need to consider is how they approach that July series as a whole.
The match against England is bound to be a physically taxing affair, and it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see a different combination starting against Scotland the following week.
In light of recent events, Erasmus may need to rethink his selections for the England and Scotland matches if he wants to win both Tests and begin the Nations Championship on the front foot.
The Boks have the depth to navigate the challenge of playing several marquee Tests in consecutive weeks – but it will be interesting to see how many of the first-choice players feature against England and whether a few are held back for Scotland.
Scotland will need some luck to finish at the top of the Six Nations table this weekend, but their campaign shouldn’t be defined by whether England can win in Paris or not.
If Scotland beat Ireland – after thumping England by 11 points and putting 50 on France – they should be mentioned in the same breath as Les Bleus and the All Blacks when assessing the biggest threats to South Africa across the 2026 season.
A win for Ireland, and perhaps an unlikely ascent to the top of the Six Nations table, would force yet another stock-take. Andy Farrell’s side currently boasts a 3-2 win-record against the Boks.
The Boks will face Italy, France and Ireland in November – and the results of those matches will determine whether Erasmus and his charges qualify for the Grand Final of the Nations Championship.
Since the Nations Championship schedule was confirmed, most have predicted that one of England or France will advance from the northern conference.
Based on what we’ve seen in the Six Nations, Ireland and Scotland could surprise a few of the southern sides in the coming months, while Italy could also claim a few big scalps.
ALSO READ: The key factors in Scotland’s remarkable resurgence
