6N Preview: Ireland v Italy

Ireland’s postponed Six Nations match in Paris gave players the chance to rest aching bodies, and with the ultra-physical Italians in Dublin on Saturday, skipper Paul O’Connell is happy to take the lone positive from the French farce.

One thing any team can rely on when they face Italy is a test of their muscle, and with the rescheduled tournament giving Ireland an unexpected four games in four weekends, Jacques Brunel’s men will provide a tough start to that run of fixtures at Lansdowne Road.

“We’ve just got on with it, there’s nothing we can do about it although I suppose some guys with knocks have had the benefit,” said O’Connell.

“Others would have liked to play games, because when you lose a game [against Wales 21-23 in Dublin on the opening weekend] you want to get straight out and play it out of the system.”

Italy come to Dublin knowing they’ve lost every Six Nations Test match against Ireland since first entering the tournament, leaving just the Irish and England as the two scalps they’ve yet to claim in the competition.

Their last meeting with Ireland was desperately disappointing for Italy, a 6-36 defeat in Dunedin in October – in what was the final game as Azzurri coach for Nick Mallett, now a candidate for the England job – ending their hopes of reaching the knockout stages of the World Cup and securing a quarterfinal spot for the Irish.

England though narrowly escaped being beaten at a snowy Stadio Olimpico in Rome two weeks ago, and O’Connell was under no illusions about the task ahead.

“It’s going to be a really tough game,” said O’Connell, captaining Ireland in the ongoing absence of star centre Brian O’Driscoll, out of the tournament with a shoulder injury.

“Whenever we’ve played them in the past, they’ve excellent maul and scrum and they’re good around the fringes,” added the lock, who will be leading an Ireland team unchanged from the one that would have played France.

Brunel, by contrast, has made four changes to the side that squandered a nine-point lead in a 15-19 loss to England.

South African-born Tobias Botes will make his first start despite, after replacing Australian-born Kris Burton, missing two penalties against England that could have given Italy a first win over the Six Nations champions.

But Burton’s tactical kicking from flyhalf was widely criticised.

Meanwhile Alberto Sgarbi, left out against England, returns at outside centre in place of Gonzalo Canale while there are two changes to the front row, with props Michele Rizzo and Lorenzo Cittadini called up after injury to Martin Castrogiovanni and the dropping of Andrea Lo Cicero.

Brunel said Italy would have to be extremely competitive at the breakdown in order to prevent past-masters Ireland from slowing their ball.

“If ever we can resolve that so that we don’t submit to this pressure and instead turn it around then maybe we can get a result,” said the Frenchman.

“We cannot get away from the breakdown, we have to be very precise in this zone at the least.”

He added: “We’re giving points away too easily. If we can eliminate that and be more effective in getting points with the boot then we will have the ability to get results.”

One factor which could work in Italy’s favour is Ireland’s poor record at the rebuilt Lansdowne Road.

Since the redeveloped arena opened in 2010, Ireland have lost six of the nine internationals played there.

“We’re well aware of the record and it is annoying and frustrating,” said O’Connell.

“We’ve rarely put in an 80 minute performance there and that’s the real problem. We’re an excellent side but we haven’t been that excellent side for the whole 80 minutes and that will be the goal for this weekend.”

Players to watch:

For Ireland: In the absence of Brian O’Driscoll the midfield combination of Keith Earls and Gordon D’Arcy will remain under the spotlight, as will the erratic – but very talented – flyhalf Jonathan Sexton. However, the biggest joy in watching an Irish team play is in seeing the loose forward combination of Jamie Heaslip, Sean O’Brien and Stephen Ferris in operation.

For Italy: No doubt the Azzurri’s latest South African import, flyhalf Tobias Botes, will be scrutinised more than anyone else. Having started out his career as a scrumhalf, at least in his homeland, he has followed the path of so many No.9s and became a utility halfback – capable of playing at both scrumhalf and flyhalf. And in the absence of veteran strongman Martin Castrogiovanni, it will be up to Lorenzo Cittadini to anchor the impressive Italian scrum.

Head to head: The most intriguing of all the individual showdowns will be at flyhalf – where the younger Jonathan Sexton (Ireland) will be able to rely on his experience of Test rugby (all 10 caps) against the ‘rookie’ Tobias Botes (Italy), who will make his first Test start, despite being a year older. They are also two very different players, the attacking flyhalf against a player with a more educated boot. Jamie Heaslip (Ireland) against Sergio Parisse (Italy) is always worth the entry fee.

Recent results:
2011: Ireland won 36-6, Dunedin
2011: Ireland won 13-11, Rome
2010: Ireland won 29-11, Dublin
2009: Ireland won 38-9, Rome
2008: Ireland won 16-11, Dublin
2007: Ireland won 23-20, Belfast
2007: Ireland won 51-24, Rome
2006: Ireland won 26-16, Dublin
2005: Ireland won 28-17, Rome
2004: Ireland won 19-3, Dublin

Prediction: The Italians have been competitive in both their matches this season, but they still don’t seem to have that killer instinct – as was evident against when they conceded a nine-point lead against England. Not much would have changed in the last fortnight and unless the Irish are very poor on the day there can only be one winner. Ireland to win by 10 points or more.

Teams:

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Gordon D’Arcy, 11 Andrew Trimble, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O’Connell (captain), 4 Donncha O’Callaghan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tom Court, 18 Donnacha Ryan, 19 Peter O’Mahony, 20 Eoin Reddan, 21 Ronan O’Gara, 22 Fergus McFadden.

Italy: 15 Andrea Masi, 14 Giovanbattista Venditti, 13 Tommaso Benvenuti, 12 Alberto Sgarbi, 11 Luke McLean, 10 Tobias Botes, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse (captain), 7 Robert Barbieri, 6 Alessandro Zanni, 5 Marco Bortolami, 4 Quintin Geldenhuys, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Michele Rizzo.
Replacements: 16 Tommaso D’Apice, 17 Fabio Staibano, 18 Antonio Pavanello, 19 Simone Favaro, 20 Fabio Semenzato, 21 Kris Burton, 22 Gonzalo Canale.

Date: Saturday, February 25
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 13.30 (13.30 GMT)
Expected weather: Overcast with patches of sunshine. High of 10°C and a low of 6°C.
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (Wales), David Changleng (Scotland)
TMO: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales)

AFP & rugby365.com