Ireland v Wales - teams and prediction
SIX NATIONS ROUND ONE: Ireland goes into their season opener on Saturday against injury-hit holders Wales in a “good place”.
However, former Test fullback Hugo MacNeill, who made the declaration, also told AFP that much depends on captain Johnny Sexton remaining fit.
MacNeill bases his upbeat tone on Ireland having put together a run of eight successive Test victories and having shown evidence in their three November wins – including beating New Zealand – of a “more expansive running game.”
The 63-year-old 37-times capped MacNeill – a member of the Five Nations and Triple Crown-winning sides in 1982 and 1985 and shared the title with France in 1983 – said head coach Andy Farrell had taken them up a level from the side that achieved the 2018 Six Nations Grand Slam.
“They have the roots and the ingredients for a good campaign,” MacNeill told AFP.
“The players have stepped up their rugby a level compared to past years and that includes when they won the Grand Slam, as by the time 2019 came round people had figured out Ireland’s game.”
Sexton, though, remains even at 36 the pivotal player for the team and the ever-recurring question, which was going on prior to the 2019 World Cup, who would replace him at fly-half.
“The risk is the way he plays he does pick up a lot of injuries,” said MacNeill.
“Ireland with or without Johnny Sexton there is still a big difference.
“Unlike other positions across the pitch – apart from maybe full-back as Hugo Keenan has made it his property – where there are several alternatives I do not think there is for his jersey.
“We are doing well in 14 positions on the field with a question mark over the 15th and fly-half is the one position you do not want to have a doubt hanging over you.
“You need certainty over the fly-half role and unfortunately we do not.”
Munster’s Joey Carbery has been seen for a long time as Sexton’s successor.
The 26-year-old showed his class in guiding the Irish over the line – Sexton having gone off injured – against the All Blacks last November and then in the thrashing of Argentina the week after.
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‘Hard place to go’
However, injury-prone Carbery fractured an elbow in December but he is fit again and Sexton’s understudy for Saturday’s game.
MacNeill is an admirer of Carbery’s but adds he still has a lot to prove at Test level.
“It is imperative to have a credible authoritative fly-half alternative to back up Johnny Sexton, as the implications at the moment should they be without him are so huge,” said MacNeill.
“It is all about game management.
“There are a lot of one-sided games with Munster winning easily but the question is can Joey Carbery direct the national team in big matches in Paris [Saturday week] and Twickenham [England host Ireland March 12].
“This is still unresolved.”
Farrell has shown decisive leadership in making tough selection calls, promoting Sexton’s Leinster team-mate Jamison Gibson-Park to first-choice scrumhalf ahead of long-time incumbent Conor Murray, says MacNeill.
“Gibson-Park has a faster pass which is what you need for a backline running game,” said MacNeill.
“You do not need a scrumhalf who takes a step before passing. I would pick Gibson-Park every time.”
Farrell’s Wales counterpart Wayne Pivac would love to have similar options but he has been deprived of several experienced hands including iconic skipper Alun Wyn Jones.
At least he can call on seasoned fly-half Dan Biggar to step in as captain but with the woeful results for Welsh regions in the European club competitions little wonder the champions are seen as underdogs.
“History in Dublin shows it’s a hard place to go [Wales have won there just once in their last seven visits],” said Pivac.
“They are a very tough, very physical side, so we know we are going to have to step up in that area of the game and make sure we do that for 80 minutes.
“We’ve got to be very disciplined, and as a result be in there fighting for the right result.”
Players to watch
For Ireland: Australia-born wing Mack Hansen will make his Test debut for Ireland. The 23-year-old former Brumbies flier qualifies through his Irish mother and has earned his rapid international recognition on the back of sparkling displays for his province Connacht this season. Hansen’s case for inclusion has also been helped by injuries to Jacob Stockdale and James Lowe. Unsurprisingly with Ireland going into the game on an eight Test winning run the rest of the starting line-up is largely that which impressed in the November Tests, including a win over New Zealand. Captain and flyhalf Johnny Sexton will be partnered by his Leinster teammate Jamison Gibson-Park, the New Zealand-born scrumhalf having justified his starting spot ahead of veteran Conor Murray in the year-end series this past November. In the centres, Hansen’s provincial teammate Bundee Aki and Leinster’s Garry Ringrose team up for the 15th time. Hooker Dan Sheehan and centre James Hume are in line for their first Six Nations appearances as they fill out the bench.
For Wales: Josh Adams will play in the centre for Wales for the first time. Adams, who has won 35 caps and was top try-scorer at the 2019 World Cup, would have featured there in last November’s Test with Fiji, but he suffered an injury during the warm-up and was unable to start. The 26-year-old will partner Nick Tompkins in midfield in a side that has lost several key players to injury. There are also starts for wing Johnny McNicholl and flank Taine Basham – winning their ninth and eighth caps respectively – with uncapped Ospreys hooker Dewi Lake among the replacements. Iconic captain Alun Wyn Jones is one of those missing and experienced flyhalf Dan Biggar will skipper them instead.
Head to head
Prediction
@rugby365com: Ireland by 15 points
Teams
Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Andrew Conway, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Mack Hansen, 10 Johnny Sexton (captain), 9 Jamison Gibson Park, 8 Jack Conan, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Caelan Doris, 5 James Ryan, 4 Tadhg Beirne, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Ronan Kelleher, 1 Andrew Porter.
Replacements: 16 Dan Sheehan, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Ryan Baird, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Joey Carbery, 23 James Hume.
Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Johnny McNicholl, 13 Josh Adams, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Louis Rees-Zammit, 10 Dan Biggar (captain), 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Taine Basham, 6 Ellis Jenkins, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Wyn Jones
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Seb Davies, 20 Ross Moriarty, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Callum Sheedy, 23 Owen Watkin
Date: Saturday, February 5
Venue: Lansdowne Road, Dublin
Kick-off: 14.15 (14.15 GMT)
Expected weather: Cloudy and breezy in the afternoon. There’s a 25 percent chance of precipitation. High of 9°C and a low of 3°C
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Mathieu Raynal (France), Angus Gardner (Australia)
TMO: Stuart Terheege (England)
* Additional reporting by @SixNationsRugby
