Preview: Ireland v South Africa
The Irish are contrary. Their unpredictability is perhaps the most predictable thing about them, and that is true on the rugby field as well.
If they can destructure a rugby match and make it a hit-and-run affair, the Irish are always in with a chance of winning – especially when they face South Africa in Dublin on Saturday.
And they are likely to do it with a laugh and pretend it is a common occurrence, nothing special at all.
GK Chesterton, in his Ballad of the White Horse, noted Irish contrariness when he said:
For the great Gaels of Ireland
Are the men that God made mad,
For all their wars are merry,
And all their songs are sad.
On Saturday in Lansdowne Road, they will be cheerful and apparently carefree but in their souls they will be filled with competitiveness and determination to win.
The crowd will be partisan all right, but at the same time they will be impeccably well-mannered.
Handré Pollard, the South African goal-kicker, may find it disconcerting that there is silence when he kicks at goal. The silence may be more off-putting than boos and catcalls.
Dublin will be a great place to be on Saturday. The craic is sure to be good.
The ground is new and yet Lansdowne Road is the venue for the oldest Test ground in the world that is still in use – older than all the rest. Yet the Springboks have not always played Ireland there.
The first Springbok victory in a rugby Test abroad was against Ireland in 1906. After losing to Scotland Paul Roos's men took the short trip to Ireland and played the Test in Belfast. They won 16-12. In 1912 they played the Irish Test at Lansdowne Road for the first time and won 38-0, a world record that stood till 44-0 at Murrayfield in 1951.
When the Springboks tried to resurrect the history of 1906 in 2006, they played in the colours of 1906, but lost.
That's all history.
Saturday will be the here and now, but then the Irish love history and they say of them that they have bad memories, for they never forget. The Battle of the Boyne may have been last week, the way some talk of it.
In the 21 matches between the two countries, seven of which were played in South Africa, the Springboks have won 16 (nine in Ireland), the Irish four and there was a draw. Ireland have not won in South Africa.
The weather, threatening to be miserable, may help the Irish in breaking the game apart. But if it comes to slogging it out, you are likely to believe that the Springboks will dominate with the likes of Bismarck du Plessis, Eben Etzebeth, Duane Vermeulen and Marcell Coetzee. They are likely to win their own ball at set pieces and then seek to wreck the post-tackle collision.
If it's as wet and cold as expected, the wings may well be left to find their own ways of keeping warm and the fullbacks confined to catching the high ball, which Rob Kearney does so brilliantly. But then the Irish may stick to an unpredictable game plan and have their back three running all over the place.
Players to Watch:
For Ireland: Strong, fast Tommy Bowe, slippery, fast Simon Zebo and strong, committed Rob Kearney. Flyhalf Jonathan Sexton of Racing-Métro is one of the best all-rounders in the world, for he can run, pass, kick and tackle. And in the pack there is the Irish giant Paul O'Connell, who never gives less than his best, never has a bad game – Finn McCool reawakened.
For South Africa: Willie le Roux who will delight Irish hearts if he gets a chance to do his version of the unpredictable, Bryan Habana who deserves a chance to race free, boy-wonder Handré Pollard who has the same virtues as Sexton but nothing like the experience, the zeal of fearless Francois Hougaard, and then those tough men up front – Vermeulen, Coetzee, Etzebeth, Bismarck, Tendai and, when he comes on, naughty Bakkies Botha.
Head to Head: The most crucial battle may be between the two flyhalves – Jonathan Sexton (Ireland) and Handré Pollard (South Africa) – and how each is served – by Conor Murray for Ireland and Francois Hougaard for South Africa. Murray may be the better scrumhalf, Hougaard the better rugby player. Up front there is the potential for a great line-out contest between the ageless duo of Victor Matfield, who is 37, and Paul O'Connell, who is 35. And in the line-outs the Springboks have the luxury of four other jumpers – Vermeulen, Coetzee, Etzebeth and new man Oupa (Teboho) Mohoje, who did well against the All Blacks a few weeks ago. There is also the potential, weather permitting, for an interesting contest in the centres where the Springboks have the greater experience – unusual when for so long Ireland have had Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy there. If the Springboks use the ball in the backs, Jared Payne and Robbie Henshaw, who have three caps between them, could be well and truly tested.
Recent results:
2012: South Africa won 16-12, Dublin
2010: South Africa won 23-21, Dublin
2009: Ireland won 15-10, Dublin
2006: Ireland won 32-15, Dublin
2004: Ireland won 17-12, Dublin
2004: South Africa won 26-17, Cape Town
2004: South Africa won 31-17, Bloemfontein
Prediction: South Africa by 10 or more. It's just hard to see the Irish pack standing up to the Springbok eight.
Teams
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 5 Paul O'Connell (captain), 4 Devin Toner, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Sean Cronin, 1 Jack McGrath.
Replacements: 16 Richardt Strauss, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Rodney Ah You, 19 Mike McCarthy, 20 Rhys Ruddock, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Felix Jones.
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 Jan Serfontein, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Teboho Mohoje, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Coenie Oosthuizen, 19 Bakkies Botha, 20 Schalk Burger, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Pat Lambie, 23 JP Pietersen.
Date: Saturday, November 8
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Lansdowne Road, Dublin
Kick-off: 17.30 (17.30 GMT; 19.30 SA time)
Expected weather: Rain and cold. There is an 80 percent chance of rain. The high is expected to be 10°C, the low 3°C – not weather to delight anybody, let alone the summery South Africans.
Referee: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant referees: Mathieu Raynal (France), Alexandre Ruiz (France)
TMO: Jim Yuille (Scotland)
By Paul Dobson
@rugby365com
Blast from the past: South Africa v Ireland 1998
