6N Preview: Wales v Italy

Wales coach Warren Gatland must somehow keep a lid on simmering expectation ahead of Saturday’s Six Nations clash against Italy at the Millennium Stadium.

Successive wins over Ireland, Scotland and England have seen Wales clinch their 20th Triple Crown and they are now two games away from the title and a potentially historic Grand Slam.

A third clean sweep in eight years, following those of 2005 and 2008, would mean Gatland’s men had matched the achievements of the likes of Gareth Edwards, Phil Bennett and JPR Williams in the great Welsh teams of the 1970s.

“This team is a real credit to Wales and Welsh rugby,” said Gatland. “The Six Nations is such a tough tournament to win.

“You get momentum and confidence from a couple of wins and, as we’ve seen this week in our training, the players grow an extra arm and a leg when they win,” he added.

“It isn’t just a game or a tournament, the Six Nations is more than that,” the former Ireland coach insisted.

“You have to cope with all the pressure and it is very enjoyable when you are winning, but you end up dodging bullets and pulling knives out of your back when you’re losing.”

The New Zealander has learned to deal with the expectancy within Wales and now he must safeguard his players from being carried away with the national fervour ahead of a ‘banana skin’ fixture against Italy.

Wales have everything to lose and little to gain at the Millennium Stadium, given they have never lost to the Azzurri in Cardiff, despite a draw in 2006.

“Italy has the least strength in depth of all the teams but they are always strong up front and bring a lot of emotion to the game,” Gatland said.

“Their tactical kicking is good and they put teams under pressure. We have got to be very much aware that we need to keep our patience.

“Italy should have beaten England and they have been in every game up to half-time. If it is still close at half-time then we need to remember it is a game of 80 minutes. It is going to be a war of attrition in the first 20 minutes and we have to match their physicality and be accurate in our game.”

Wales will again be without captain Sam Warburton, ruled out by a knee injury, so 21-year-old Justin Tipuric is in line for a first Test start.

However, Gatland is able to field his all-British and Irish Lions front-row, with experienced hooker Matthew Rees, fit following a calf problem, packing down between Adam Jones and new captain Gethin Jenkins.

Italy coach Jacques Brunel is still waiting for his first win following heavy defeats in France and Ireland, either side of a strong display against England.

Brunel has made seven changes to the team beaten 42-10 by Ireland, including recalls for Australia-born fly-half Kris Burton, scrum-half Fabio Semenzato, centre Gonzalo Canale and wing Mirco Bergamasco, who will resume the goal-kicking duties.

“Wales are the strongest team in the tournament as they showed in the World Cup where they reached the semi-finals and could have gone further,” Brunel said.

“The Dragons have rhythm, are accustomed to playing together and have so many great players,” the Frenchman added.

“It will be an interesting challenge for us, especially for our defence to be better than it was in Dublin.”

Players to Watch:

For Wales: With regular Welsh captain Sam Warburton ruled out, 22-year-old Justin Tipuric will step into the spotlight in his first Test start. He will have a huge role to play in a Welsh team that thrives at a crucial area such as the breakdown. The other key player is veteran prop Gethin Jenkins, who will now lead the team. It is a decision questioned by most pundits.

For Italy: The one Italian that is always worth watching is captain and No.8 Sergio Parisse – so often a lone ranger in a losing cause. The return of Kris Burton and flyhalf and his new halfback partner, No.9 Fabio Semenzato, will also be in the spotlight as this has been the most contentious selection area in the Azzurri team all season.

Head to Head: As is so often the case, the game will be won and lost by the decisions made in the halfback positions – with Wales looking so much better equipped through having Rhys Priestland and Michael Phillips facing up to the Italian duo of Kris Burton and Fabio Semenzato. The set pieces are another area where the Welsh will look to dominate. At lock they look to have a clear edge through Ian Evans and Alun-Wyn Jones over Cornelius van Zyl and Quintin Geldenhuys. But at scrum time it will be a lot more competitive when Adam Jones, Matthew Rees and Gethin Jenkins take on Lorenzo Cittadini, Leonardo Ghiraldini and Andrea Lo Cicero.

Recent results:
2011: Wales won 24-16, Rome
2010: Wales won 33-10, Cardiff
2009: Wales won 20-15, Rome
2008: Wales won 47-8, Cardiff
2007: Italy won 23-20, Rome
2006: Wales and Italy drew 18-18, Cardiff
2005: Wales won 38-8, Rome
2004: Wales won 44-10, Cardiff
2003: Wales won 27-15, Canberra (World Cup pool match)
2003: Italy won 30-22, Rome

Prediction: There is not even a debate. Wales will win and win well. They simply have too much class and experience all over the Park. Wales by about 20 points.

The teams:

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Michael Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Ian Evans, 4 Alun-Wyn Jones, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Gethin Jenkins (captain).
Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Paul James, 18 Luke Charteris, 19 Ryan Jones, 20 Rhys Webb, 21 James Hook, 22 Scott Williams.

Italy: 15 Andrea Masi, 14 Luke McLean, 13 Gonzalo Canale, 12 Alberto Sgarbi, 11 Mirco Bergamasco, 10 Kris Burton, 9 Fabio Semenzato, 8 Sergio Parisse (captain), 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Alessandro Zanni, 5 Cornelius van Zyl, 4 Quintin Geldenhuys, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Andrea Lo Cicero.
Replacements: 16 Tommaso D’Apice, 17 Fabio Staibano, 18 Marco Bortolami, 19 Robert Barbieri, 20 Tobias Botes, 21 Tommaso Benvenuti, 22 Giulio Toniolatti.

Date: Saturday, March 10
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 14.30 (14.30 GMT)
Expected weather: Cloudy in the morning with some drizzle, becoming dry by the afternoon and feeling mild as some bright or sunny spells develop. High of 13°C and a low of 7°C
Referee: George Clancy (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Peter Fitzgibbon (Ireland), Peter Allan (Scotland)
TMO: Graham Hughes (England)

AFP & rugby365.com