Preview: Samoa v Japan

That brings with it automatic qualification for the 2019 World Cup – to be hosted by Japan.

Not surprising then to hear talk of 'desperation' and 'must win' when the management of the two quads are speaking of the Milton Keynes face-off.

With one win each from two matches, they are in third place (Samoa, on four points) and fourth (Japan, also on four).

Just two points (-31 versus -33 points differential) separate them.

This is a BIG game for both.

"It's do or die for both teams and I'm sure they are feeling what we are feeling," Samoan coach Stephen Betham said.

"It's backs against the wall for both teams and whoever wins will have a great shot at making the quarterfinals," Betham said.

He has made five changes to the team that lost 46-6 to South Africa.

It is Samoa's most experienced Test side ever, with the starting XV boasting 346 caps.

"Experience was kind of a factor, but we have gone on form mostly.

"Whoever is in the best form has been given the nod by me," Betham said.

"Unfortunately we cannot pick everyone but I am confident we have picked the right team for Saturday."

Japan feel they have recovered from playing South Africa and Scotland over a punishing five-day period and lock Luke Thompson believes that they will be firing on all cylinders when they tackle Samoa on Saturday.

After stunning South Africa in their opening game in Pool B match, Japan played Scotland just four days later and faded after an hour, slipping to a 10-45 defeat.

Eddie Jones' men, however, have recuperated over the past six days in the quiet of Warwick, where the team have been able to focus on preparing for the Samoa game.

"We'll be fresh going out there," the 34-year-old Thompson, a veteran of three World Cups, said.

Thompson said that opening the tournament with a win – something Japan did not achieve in their last two World Cups – has made a tremendous difference to the team's mindset going into the latter half of the pool phase.

The last Pool B game for the 2019 hosts is against the United States on October  11 in Gloucester.

"There's probably a bit more belief now," Thompson said.

"The last two started with a loss so it changes everything. We've had a win and a loss but we still have a chance of the quarterfinals.

"We've always been a team with great potential but we've never played to that potential.

"We played to our potential in the South Africa game and got a good result, and we need to that twice more."

Players to watch:

For Japan: You start with fullback Ayumu Goromaru – who was sublime against South Africa and less than convincing against Scotland. Flyhalf Kosei Ono and scrumhalf Fumiaki Tanaka are the other key backs. Flank Michael Broadhurst and Michael Leitch will provide the spark up front, with hooker Shota Horie adding some first class experience.

For Samoa: It is all about the creativity of their backs – Tim Nanai-Williams at No.15, brothers Ken Pisi (on the wing) and Tusi Pisi (at flyhalf). You would also like to see if burly Alesana Tuilagi can curb his often overly aggressive tendencies – keep his hands away from opposing players throats and faces.

Head to head: Two of the most exciting fullbacks in the business – Ayumu Goromaru (Japan) and Tim Nanai-Williams (Samoa) – will put on display their amazing skills. Kosei Ono (Japan) and Tusi Pisi (Samoa) are not mentioned among the 'greats' when it comes to flyhalf rankings, but they are quality players who will have a big say in the game. There is the set pieces – scrums and line-outs – where the likes of Hitoshi Ono, Luke Thompson, Kensuke Hatakeyama, Shota Horie and Keita Inagaki Japan) will have to be at their best against Kane Thompson, Teofilo Paulo, Census Johnston, Ole Avei and Sakaria Taulafo (Samoa).

Recent results:

2010: Japan won 31-23, Apia

2009: Samoa won 34-15, Sigatoka

2008: Samoa won 37-31, Apia

2007: Samoa won 13-3, Miyagi

2006: Samoa won 53-9, New Plymouth

2001: Samoa won 47-8, Tokyo

2000: Samoa won 68-9, Apia

1999: Samoa won 43-9, Wrexham (World Cup pool match)

1999: Japan won 37-34, Osaka

1990: Samoa won 37-11, Tokyo

Prediction: Japan may have run their race. Yes, if they play like they did against South Africa they can knock anybody over. And they have also beaten Samoa before. However, the good teams consistently perform at that level and Japan just don't seem capable of that. Samoa should win a good arm wrestle and seal it with a late score – by 12 points.

Teams:

Japan: 15 Ayumu Goromaru, 14 Akihito Yamada, 13 Male Sau, 12 Harumichi Tatekawa, 11 Kotaro Matsushima, 10 Kosei Ono, 9 Fumiaki Tanaka, 8 Ryu Koliniasi Holani, 7 Michael Broadhurst, 6 Michael Leitch (captain), 5 Hitoshi Ono, 4 Luke Thompson, 3 Kensuke Hatakeyama, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Keita Inagaki.  

Replacements: 16 Takeshi Kizu, 17 Masataka Mikami, 18  Hiroshi Yamashita, 19 Justin Ives, 20 Amanaki Mafi, 21 Hendrik Tui, 22 Atsushi Hiwasa, 23 Karne Hesketh.

Samoa: 15 Tim Nanai-Williams; 14 Ken Pisi, 13 Paul Perez, 12 Johnny Leota, 11 Alesana Tuilagi, 10 Tusi Pisi, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i, 8 Failfili Levave, 7 TJ Ioane, 6 Ofisa Treviranus (captain), 5 Kane Thompson, 4 Teofilo Paulo, 3 Census Johnston, 2 Ole Avei, 1 Sakaria Taulafo.

Replacements: 16 Motu Matu'u, 17 Viliamu Afatia, 18 Anthony Perenise, 19 Jack Lam, 20 Vavae Tuilagi, 21 Vavao Afemai, 22 Mike Stanley, 23 Rey Lee-Lo.

Date: Saturday, October 3

Venue: Stadium MK, Milton Keynes

Kick-off: 14.30 (13.30 GMT; 03.30 Sunday, October 4, Samoan time; 22.30 Japan time)

Expected weather: It looks to stay dry with light winds making it feel pleasant in any sunny spells. High of 13°C and a low of 8°C

Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)

Assistant referees: Wayne Barnes (England), Stuart Berry (South Africa)

TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)

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