How does the 2023 Final compare to Baltimore 2026?
South Africa and New Zealand share a storied history of memorable encounters, with the 1995 and 2023 World Cup finals standing out as highlights.
As these two teams prepare to clash at Baltimore’s Ravens Stadium this Saturday for the 2026 Greatest Rivalry finale, their line-ups will reflect significant changes from three years ago.
The journey from the 2023 World Cup Final in Paris to the series finale in Baltimore illustrates two distinct approaches.
South Africa has opted for continuity, keeping nine players from their 23-man squad that competed in the 2023 Final, while New Zealand has undergone a substantial transformation, embracing a new coaching strategy and featuring eight returning players from their narrow (11-12) loss in that historic match.
The structural contrasts between these teams over the past three years highlight a considerable difference in their succession planning.
South Africa has strategically integrated younger talent into their backline while maintaining a strong veteran presence in the forward pack. In contrast, New Zealand has navigated a significant overhaul due to retirements, player transfers abroad, and an acute injury crisis ahead of 2026.
Despite facing the challenge of missing 14 players from the 2023 World Cup Final due to injuries and recent retirements, coach Rassie Erasmus has managed to keep the team’s foundational structure remarkably intact. Key players from the Paris Final, including Ox Nche, Eben Etzebeth, Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Jasper Wiese, Damian de Allende, Jesse Kriel, Kurt-Lee Arendse, and Damian Willemse, will all be on the field together again in Baltimore.
Notably, legendary loosehead prop Steven Kitshoff has retired, while Bongi Mbonambi and Frans Malherbe are sidelined with injuries. Additionally, Duane Vermeulen, one of the veterans from 2023, has transitioned into a coaching role.
The Springboks have successfully incorporated promising young talents into their backline, particularly flyhalf Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and wing Ethan Hooker, setting the stage for an exciting encounter.
(Continue below ….)
New Zealand has embarked on a comprehensive structural overhaul under the leadership of coach Dave Rennie.
The All Blacks present a markedly different lineup compared to the squad under Ian Foster in 2023.
Since the last World Cup cycle, New Zealand has faced a significant exodus of senior players, leading to a shift in team dynamics.
Players like Codie Taylor, Ethan de Groot, Fletcher Newell, Tupou Vaa’i, Jordie Barrett, and Will Jordan continue to be key figures in the Baltimore starting XV, while Beauden Barrett and Rieko Ioane have been relegated to the bench.
Iconic veterans such as Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Aaron Smith, and Dane Coles moved on shortly after the 2023 tournament.
Additionally, regular captain Ardie Savea and loose forward Luke Jacobson are absent from this match due to recent injuries sustained in Soweto.
In a significant boost to their experience, generational flyhalf Richie Mo’unga returns to the starting No. 10 position for the first time since the 2023 Final. He will work alongside a relatively inexperienced forward group that includes rising talents Peter Lakai (13 caps) and Sam Darry (11 caps), who will face the challenge of countering the formidable Springbok pack.
The disparity in experience between the two teams heading into the Baltimore Test match is considerable.
The Springboks boast a well-established, World Cup-winning core, whereas the All Blacks are fielding a lighter, transitioning squad for this crucial series decider.
A look at the Test match caps for the finale at Ravens Stadium reveals a staggering experience gap, with the Springboks’ matchday 23 totalling 1,204 Test caps, compared to the All Blacks’ starting lineup of 741 caps.
In fact, the Springboks’ starting forward pack alone nearly matches the total number of caps held by the entire New Zealand starting XV.
* A quick look at the 2023 Final and Baltimore finale squads
South Africa – Paris 2023: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende , 11 Cheslin Kolbe (injured), 10 Handré Pollard (not selected), 9 Faf de Klerk (not selected), 8 Duane Vermeulen (retired & coaching), 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Franco Mostert (injured), 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe (injured), 2 Bongi Mbonambi (injured), 1 Steven Kitshoff (retired).
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Ox Nche (starting), 18 Trevor Nyakane (injured/retired), 19 Jean Kleyn (injured), 20 RG Snyman (injured), 21 Kwagga Smith (injured), 22 Jasper Wiese (starting), 23 Willie le Roux (not selected).
South Africa – Baltimore 2026: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morné van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok.
New Zealand – Paris 2023: 15 Beauden Barrett (dropped to the bench), 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane (dropped to the bench), 12 Jordie Barrett , 11 Mark Tele’a (injured), 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith (retired), 8 Ardie Savea (injured), 7 Sam Cane (captain- retired), 6 Shannon Frizell (injured), 5 Scott Barrett (not selected), 4 Brodie Retallick (retired), 3 Tyrel Lomax (dropped to bench), 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho (not selected), 17 Tamaiti Williams (injured), 18 Nepo Laulala (switched allegiance to Samoa), 19 Samuel Whitelock (retired), 20 Dalton Papali’i (injured), 21 Finlay Christie (not selected), 22 Damian McKenzie (promoted to starting XV), 23 Anton Lienert-Brown (injured).
New Zealand – Baltimore 2026: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Sam Darry, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor (captain), 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Beauden Barrett.
In the fourth and concluding Test of the Greatest Rivalry series, a notable contrast emerges in the age profiles of the two matchday squads, underscoring the experience of the South African side against a youthful and transitioning New Zealand lineup.
The average age of South Africa’s starting XV stands at 32, while New Zealand’s average is markedly younger at 26.
The Springboks, steeped in veteran leadership, rely on their extensive experience and dominance in set pieces to gain an edge in this critical match.
Conversely, the All Blacks are in a phase of rebuilding, characterised by a squad infused with youth that aims to bring fresh energy and speed to the field.
Prominent figures in the South African squad include seasoned players such as lock Eben Etzebeth (34), captain Siya Kolisi (35), and Pieter-Steph du Toit (33). Coach Rassie Erasmus has strategically embraced this wealth of experience, selecting a matchday squad featuring 14 players over the age of 30, well-equipped for high-pressure tactical challenges.
New Zealand’s coach, Dave Rennie, has opted for a younger squad profile, with the starting lineup averaging six years younger than their South African counterparts. While experienced players like captain Codie Taylor and Richie Mo’unga add valuable leadership, injuries to key veterans have necessitated a greater reliance on emerging talent to counter the physical intensity presented by the Springboks.
Following injuries to regular captain Ardie Savea and loose forward leader Luke Jacobson in Soweto, New Zealand’s back row reflects a significant youth element. Peter Lakai (13 caps) steps into the starting position alongside Ethan Blackadder (14 caps). To provide balance, Rennie has appointed seasoned captain Codie Taylor (111 caps) and recalled experienced players to the matchday 23, including Anton Lienert-Brown (93 caps), Rieko Ioane (88 caps), and Damian McKenzie (80 caps).
Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus has deliberately constructed his squad around players capable of effectively managing the pressures of high-stakes matches. The current roster features many individuals who have previously participated in significant fixtures, such as the 100th Test in Townsville, the unique pandemic-era British and Irish Lions Series held in empty stadiums, and the intense 2023 World Cup Final against New Zealand in Paris.
The South African front row, comprising Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx, and Wilco Louw, is a cohesive and formidable unit, marked by their extensive experience. In contrast, New Zealand has turned to Ethan de Groot (44 caps) and Fletcher Newell (40 caps) in an attempt to stabilise a set-piece that faced significant disruption from the Springboks during their encounter in Johannesburg.
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