South Africa v New Zealand - teams and predictions

PREVIEW: It still remains the greatest rivalry in the game – the Springboks versus the All Blacks – regardless of the competition or the arena in which it is staged.

It is 307 days since South Africa beat New Zealand by one point (12-11) in an epic World Cup Final at Stade de France in Paris.

Much has changed since

Both teams have new head coaches – Rassie Erasmus is back as the Bok boss and Razor Robertson is now in charge of the All Blacks.

Both coaching panels have changed dramatically.

Former Ireland hooker Jerry Flannery and former All Black flyhalf Tony Brown joined the Bok camp, with Jason Holland and Scott Hansen additions to Robertson’s panel.

There was the dramatic walk-out of another assistant, Leon MacDonald, last week. However, the All Blacks vigorously played it down as a factor.

The venue has moved from the romantic setting in Paris to the iconic Ellis Park stadium at Johannesburg’s high altitude of 1,800 metres above sea level.

The weather will also be dramatically contrasting – a late-afternoon kick-off in dry and cool conditions, as opposed to a late night (21.00) kick-off in pouring rain.

However, none of these changes have been able to distract from the intense and intriguing build-up for what is expected to be another brutal arm-wrestle between teams ranked No.1 (South Africa) and No.3 (New Zealand) in the world.

The Springboks have won nine of their last 10 Test matches – the only loss being a one-point (24-25) reversal to Ireland in July.

Their other loss before that was also to Ireland – 8-13 in a World Cup pool match back in September 2023.

South Africa also won their last two Test matches against New Zealand, as many as they won across their eight meetings before that span.

However, New Zealand won five of their last six Tests against South Africa in the Republic – including a 35-23 victory
when they last met at Ellis Park.

All this will count for nothing when the two adversaries face off in the iconic Doornfontein venue.

It will be about who best prepares and executes their respective coaches’ plans.

Scott Robertson said the outcome of the game will hinge on the ‘small margins’, just as it did in Paris.

Asked what aspects of the game would decide the result, he paused for almost 10 seconds, before suggesting that discipline again would be the key.

That was an ironic response, given that New Zealand played most of the Final with 14 men, after captain Sam Cane was red-carded in Paris for a dangerous tackle.

(Article continues below the Scott Robertson interview …)

“Set piece penalties, which are pretty clear,” he told @rugby365com, adding: “Both teams understand how important that is.

“A collapsed maul, you go offside or a scrum goes down, the momentum changes pretty quickly.

“Those little match-ups are so critical about keeping pressure on [the opposition] teams.

“The Springboks do that well.”

South Africa’s forwards coach, Deon Davids said they are not buying into the media hype that the home team is favoured to win.

“There will never be a Springbok side that will underestimate the opposition, especially New Zealand,” he said.

He described the All Black class of 2024 as a ‘quality’ team and pointed to their impressive comeback against Argentina – delivering a 42-10 rout in Auckland, after a 30-38 loss in Wellington the week before.

“It is going to be a massive challenge,” Davids said, adding that the next fortnight will produce a ‘typical’ Springbok versus All Black face-off.

He added that it is likely to have the same intensity as the Boks’ one-point (12-11) win in the World Cup Final in Paris in October.

“If you look back at the rivalry of these two teams it is almost always close.

“There are good matchups in all aspects of the game.

“The World Cup Final had the physicality and intensity we have come to expect of these contests.

“It won’t be different than any game we play against New Zealand.

“This will be the same.”

New All Black attack coach Scott Hansen said they have a good idea of what to expect from the Boks, despite the constant team changes – from Ireland, to Portugal and even between the two encounters with Australia, as many as 10 changes from one match to the next.

“Fundamentally their coaches are building a game plan and we understand what that is in terms of where they want to be,” he told @rugby365com.

“You have to acknowledge the depth and excitement of the South African game.

“It is a hell of an opportunity and a challenge for us and we know how good they are.

“They are world champions and we are playing them in their front yard.

“They can go through you, around you and over you.

“We will have to be at our best.”

Players to watch

South Africa: The initial selection meant young flyhalf Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu would be in the spotlight, with some cynics still doubting his ability to cope with the pressure of such a big occasion. There was also the recall of Jasper Wiese as one of nine changes. However, the late inclusion of veteran lock Eben Etzebeth means the Boks now have a real ‘bomb squad’ on the bench – Etzebeth, Malcolm Marx, Gerhard Steenekamp, Vincent Koch, Elrigh Louw and Kwagga Smith the seven forward at Erasmus disposal. Etzebeth needs to play four more internationals to become the most capped Springbok with 128 Test appearances.

New Zealand: Former captain Sam Cane, the man of that infamous first-ever Final red card, was named to add some experience to a team in transition. Cane was named at openside flank, his first start for New Zealand since the Final in October. The 32-year-old Cane replaces Dalton Papali’i, who is sidelined by a thumb injury. Scott Barrett returns to captain the All Blacks – having missed the two recent home Tests against Argentina with a finger injury.

Head to head

Prediction

@rugby365com: South Africa by eight points

Teams

South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Ben-Jason Dixon, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Elrigh Louw, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Handre Pollard.

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Tamaiti Williams.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Samipeni Finau, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Mark Tele’a.

Date: Saturday, August 31
Venue: Ellis Park, Johannesburg
Kick-off: 17.00 (15.00 GMT; 03.00 NZ time Sunday, September 1)
Expected weather: Sunny during the day, with little chance of rain. A high of 19°C, dropping to 9°C by kick-off.
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Matthew Carley (England) and Jordan Way (Australia)
TMO: Brian MacNeice (Ireland)

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