Libbok deserves shot at redemption in Mbombela finale

OPINION: The management of Manie Libbok in the lead-up to the final Rugby Championship fixture in Mbombela will be key, writes @rugby365com contributor Jon Cardinelli.

There’s every reason to feel ambivalent about the result in Santiago del Estero this past Saturday.

In a sense, the result was not unexpected.

Argentina made history when they put 38 points past the All Blacks in Round One. They went on to thrash the Wallabies by a record-breaking 40 points in Round Four, and in doing so, kept their Rugby Championship title chances alive.

And yet, they were tagged as the underdogs ahead of the game against the Boks in Round Five – even after Rassie Erasmus opted to leave seven key players in South Africa and after he announced a matchday squad featuring 10 changes.

Erasmus went into the Test looking for answers regarding the younger players and less established combinations.

The Bok coach spoke about the team’s intent to win the game and seal the Rugby Championship title. He also highlighted the importance of development with future tournaments and series – like the 2027 World Cup – in mind.

Erasmus took a calculated gamble, and even now, it doesn’t feel like he lost.

The 28-29 defeat is a a disappointing result in isolation, as it brings the Boks’ four-game winning streak to an end, and marks South Africa’s first defeat to the Pumas since 2018.

In the grand scheme of things, however, that result may not matter.

The Boks are still favourites to win the Rugby Championship, and may come through the tournament with five wins and their development goals – they’ve used 35 different players over the course of five rounds – well and truly realised.

It’s highly unlikely that the strongest available Bok side will lose to Argentina in Mbombela, or that they will concede a try-scoring bonus point while failing to claim a losing bonus point themselves.

It’s not a case of underestimating Argentina, but putting the disappointment of the recent Bok performance into perspective.

The Boks should be desperate to atone for the recent loss, and won’t want for motivation in their final home appearance of the season.

Erasmus believes that the coaches as well as the players should take responsibility for the recent defeat.

He may blame himself for replacing Handré Pollard – the most reliable goal-kicker in the squad – early in the second stanza, but at the same time, he will be disappointed that the faith shown in Manie Libbok didn’t translate into a narrow win for the visitors.

The Boks got a lot right this past Saturday. The first quarter showcased the potential of the new attacking approach, with the forwards hitting their targets to provide the perfect platform, and the backs translating that dominance into a 17-0 lead.

Pollard and Lukhanyo Am alternated at first-receiver, as the Boks swept from one side of the field to the other. Aphelele Fassi and Jesse Kriel ran terrific lines to breach the defence and score.

At that stage, it seemed that the Tony Brown template was paying dividends, and the Boks were on their way to a big win.

The momentum shifted after Kurt-Lee Arendse was shown a yellow card, however. The Bok forwards started to miss their targets and to leak penalties at the breakdown.

The backline chased the Pumas from one side of the field to the other. Players fell off tackles, and the communication and organisation of the defence during this period was poor.

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Argentina scored 26 points in the first half alone. Even then, Erasmus may have had déjà vu of the 2018 fixture against the Pumas in Mendoza, where his Bok side conceded 27 points in the first stanza and went on to lose 19-32.

But Felipe Contepomi’s side made a bigger statement when they breached the Bok defence to score four tries. It’s the most South Africa have conceded in the first half during the seven-year Erasmus era.

Few would have panicked when the Boks went to the break trailing by four points, given the form of their Bomb Squad and their record of lifting their performance in the second stanza.

True to form, Kwagga Smith and Elrigh Louw provided the side with the desired impact at the gainline and breakdown, while Eben Etzebeth bolstered the leadership.

The change at halfbacks also altered the flow of the match – in a good way.

Jaden Hendrikse made some excellent decisions at the back of the ruck, while Libbok showed his value at first-receiver.

That statement may trigger a lot of fans who have judged the flyhalf based on the one missed penalty at the death.

But the reality is that Libbok was one of the reasons the Boks showed greater direction in the latter stages.

Libbok launched several contestable kicks as the end of the game approached. The safer and more conservative option would have been a pass to the outside, but the flyhalf backed himself to kick accurately and his teammates to win the ball back via an excellent chase.

Sadly, Libbok didn’t exhibit the same consistency in other areas of his game.

The Boks won a penalty in the 63rd minute, and opted to kick to touch. Had they scored from the ensuing line-out, they would have extended their lead to at least seven points, and forced Argentina to chase the game via a more expansive approach.

But Libbok kicked the ball dead, and the opportunity went begging. The Pumas, through the outstanding Tomas Albornoz, slotted a penalty six minutes later, and regained the lead.

Only seconds before full-time, Libbok has the chance to kick the Boks to victory, and hooked the penalty attempt wide of the uprights.

How the player, and the coaches, respond ahead of the Rugby Championship decider, will have consequences in the short and long term.

Erasmus may opt to give Libbok a further opportunity to prove himself – either as a starter or as a finisher.

It’s worth noting that the dynamic between Libbok and Pollard – with the former starting and the latter finishing from the bench – earned the Boks a narrow win over France in the 2023 World Cup quarterfinal.

In that fixture, Libbok’s attacking and tactical kicking strengths were maximised in the first stanza, while Pollard’s goal-kicking and leadership came to the fore at the death.

It wouldn’t surprise to see Erasmus favouring this dynamic this weekend – as it would allow Libbok, a potentially key player in future, the opportunity to redeem himself.

If the gamble doesn’t pay off, the Boks will still have the insurance of Pollard on the bench.

It’s possible that the Boks will finish the game on Saturday with the Rugby Championship title, as well as a definitive answer – one way or another – regarding Libbok’s future with the team.