South Africa v Wales - teams and prediction

FIRST TEST PREVIEW: Ignore the hype for a minute and look at the bigger picture. Both South Africa and Wales start on a 14-month journey that culminates in the World Cup in France next year.

The Springboks host the Welsh Dragons at a sold-out Loftus Versfeld on Saturday, the first of three Tests in this July series.

No team will ever admit that winning is not as important, but there is no doubting that the next 14 months – and 16 matches – are vital for the Boks’ defence of their World Cup crown.

The same can be said of Wales – one year, two months and seven days out from France 2023.

Siyamthanda Kolisi and his team will play Wales, New Zealand, Australia and Argentina three times each – as well as face Ireland, France, Italy and England once.

There is certain to be a few pre-tournament warm-up matches next year.

Like the Boks, Wales will also test themselves against the best, Tier One countries – with New Zealand, Argentina, Ireland and England amongst their communal opposition.

It starts with three consecutive Test on South African soil – in Pretoria, Bloemfontein and Cape Town.

The Springboks play for the first time this year and for the first time in front of a home crowd since 2019, after a mixed previous season in which they won eight Tests and lost five.

While No.1 ranked South Africa were highly competitive in 12 of 13 Tests, Wales have plummeted to ninth place after only four victories in the last 12 matches under New Zealand-born coach Wayne Pivac.

The most humiliating defeat was at home to perennial strugglers Italy four months ago in a Six Nations Championship where Wales won just once in five outings.

Add to that sorry tale the fact that Wales have lost all 10 Tests in South Africa, including a 13-96 humiliating loss in 1998, and the odds seem to be stacked against them this month.

Loftus Versfeld stadium, where the first Test takes place, has been a particularly unhappy venue for the Welsh as they conceded 186 points in three Tests there – a match average of 62.

But despite the seeming imbalance, Springboks coach Jacques Nienaber is stressing caution and Pivac is hopeful on the eve of the first international.

(Article continues below video …)

“I believe it will be a tightly contested series,” said Nienaber.

“Wales are in the same desperate state that we were four years ago.

“We were the laughing stock of the world at the beginning of 2018 and less than two years later we were world champions.

“I know what it feels like to be down and Wales will want to copy us and soar.

“When I met [Wales coach] Wayne [Pivac] some time ago he told me they were desperate for a series win in South Africa.”

Pivac said he expects a ‘brutal’ onslaught from their hosts, but something they are prepared for.

“I think everybody knows what we are coming into,” he said, adding: “You have this rich history and you are playing at altitude.”

He said they are ‘relishing’ the opportunity against an opponent they have never beaten in South Africa.

“It is a massive challenge tackling the world champions in their backyard with two of the Tests at altitude.

“It is going to be a good test for us and will show us exactly where we stand.

“It is going to expose some weaknesses, I am sure.

“It will give us a lot to work on going forward.”

He still believes the first Test is a ‘level playing field’, given that the Boks have not been together as a team since November last year.

The tourists will wear black armbands in memory of legendary Wales and British and Irish flyhalf Phil Bennett, who died last month aged 73.

Players to watch

For South Africa: The selection of Damian Willemse at fullback will place a substantial portion of the spotlight on the talented utility back, with wing Cheslin Kolbe back after missing the last Test against England in November. At flyhalf Elton Jantjies starts ahead of Handre Pollard, following a late return from France for the latter. At scrumhalf Francois de Klerk starts in place of Cobus Reinach. Forward alterations see prop Frans Malherbe start at tighthead, utility forward Franco Mostert in as the blindside flank and at No.8 Jasper Wiese take over from Duane Vermeulen.

For Wales: The biggest selection news for the visitors is the decision to name British and Irish Lions captain Alun Wyn Jones on the bench and uncapped flank Tommy Reffell starting. Adam Beard and Will Rowlands will be the starting locks, with Jones, the world’s most capped player, making his return via the replacements – after last captaining his country in the year-end loss to New Zealand when he suffered a shoulder injury. Outside centre George North has recovered from injury and returns after missing the 2022 Six Nations to partner Nick Tompkins in midfield. Openside flank and former Wales Under-20 captain Reffell joins Dan Lydiate and Taulupe Faletau in the back row.

Head to head

Prediction

@rugby365com: South Africa by 12 points

Teams

South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Francois de Klerk, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi (captain), 5 Lodewyk de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 1 Retshegofaditswe Nché.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Salmaan Moerat, 20 Elrigh Louw, 21 Albertus Smith, 22 Herschel Jantjies, 23 Willie le Roux.

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 George North, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar (captain), 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Dillon Lewis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Rhys Carre, 18 Tomas Francis, 19 Alun Wyn Jones, 20 Josh Navidi, 21 Tomos Williams, 22 Gareth Anscombe, 23 Owen Watkin.

Date: Saturday, July 2
Venue: Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
Kick-off: 17.05 (16.05 UK & Ireland time; 15.05 GMT)
Expected weather: Plenty of sunshine on a crisp Highveld winter’s day. High of 18°C and a low of 6°C
Referee: Nika Amashukeli, Georgia)
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner, Australia), Andrew Piardi, Italy)
TMO: Joy Neville, Ireland)

@king365ed
@rugby365com

* Additional reporting by AFP