Who is the Boks' biggest threat on year-end tour?

The Six Nations stats reveal why France rather than Ireland represent the Northern Hemisphere’s best chance of a win against the Springboks later this year.

At a press conference held earlier this month, Rassie Erasmus was asked to comment on the Boks’ 2025 schedule.

One reporter highlighted the clash against the All Blacks at Eden Park on September 6.

Surely this is the Boks’ biggest game of the season, given New Zealand’s unbeaten run at this venue throughout the professional era?

Erasmus sidestepped the question by pointing out that Ireland has had the Boks’ number in recent years – beating South Africa in four of the past five matches.

With that record in mind, said Erasmus, the fixture in Dublin on November 22 might be the biggest of the year.

The comment spoke to the burgeoning rivalry between the Boks and Ireland, which came to a head when the teams clashed in a two-match epic last year.

After that series ended one-all, some suggested that the 2025 fixture at the Lansdowne Road may amount to a decider.

But so much has changed since that series in July 2024.

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The All Blacks ended an eight-year drought for southern hemisphere teams when they beat Ireland in Dublin last November.

Just three days after Erasmus held that press conference in early March, France claimed a 42-27 victory in Dublin.

The events of the past few weeks have set the international narrative on a different course.

After losing to England in Round Two, France bounced back to hammer Italy, Ireland and Scotland, and win their first Six Nations title since 2022.

As a result, all and sundry will need to revise their views on the international pecking order ahead of the July Tests and the Autumn Nations Series in November.

The Boks will play against four of the Six Nations teams this season.

Italy will tour South Africa for two matches this July, before the Boks head north at the end of the year to tackle France, the Azzurri, Ireland and Wales in successive weeks.

What can the Boks expect from Italy, who have shown some progress under coach Gonzalo Quesada over the past two years, but have blown hot and cold?

The Azzurri impressed in the narrow defeat to Ireland this past Saturday, and in the 22-15 win over Wales in Round Two – although that performance should be viewed in context, given that the Dragons have lost 17 consecutive Tests.

In the battles against France and England, Italy were blown off the park.

Erasmus will have noted how France and England dominated those matches, as well as the fact that those teams and the Boks employ similar playing styles – as well as a similar approach to the use of substitutes.

England used a six-two bench throughout their campaign, while France deployed a 7-1 split on three occasions.

While Italy boast exciting players such as Ange Capuouzzo and a world-class midfield combination in Nacho Brex and Tomasso Menoncello, they have struggled to make a consistent and lasting impression on attack.

The Azzurri finished the Six Nations with the joint-fewest tries (10), and ranked sixth for rucks won, carry metres, defenders beaten, passes and offloads.

Wales went down 14-68 in Cardiff last Saturday, and yet the Italy defence finished the tournament with the most tries conceded (29).

The Bok coach would have witnessed how Italy’s scrum and line-out creaked, and how that impacted on the performance in the latter phases.

Discipline was an issue, particularly on defence, where the Azzurri conceded more penalties than any other side.

Overall, no team conceded more cards (four yellows and a red) that Quesada’s charges.

At the top of the Six Nations standings, France led the way across most departments.

While the team surpassed a number of significant milestones over the course of the tournament, winger Louis Bielle-Biarrey shattered the individual record for the most tries (eight) in a single championship.

The overall stats (218 points and 30 tries) are impressive enough. The 42-point display in Dublin, of course, puts their attacking prowess in perspective.

It’s hard enough to win at the Aviva these days, let alone score 40 points against one of the strongest defensive teams in the world.

Perhaps it was the balance in France’s game that compromised Ireland, as well as other opponents over the course of the campaign.

France had one of the best set pieces at the tournament – their maul was one of their biggest weapons, with 37 positive outcomes – and only Scotland won more rucks.

Les Bleus recycled most of their ball at the breakdown (58 percent) in three seconds or less, which as any expert will tell you, is the key to attacking success. From there, they varied their approach well.

England came in for a lot of criticism earlier in the tournament for their kicking tactics, and yet, France finished the tournament with similar stats.

Something should be read into the fact that the two best sides in the Six Nations were also the top-ranked teams for kicks in play and kick metres.

Territory is another key to success in the modern game, and France and England led the way in this department.

Wales and Scotland played with less balance and paid the price. Ireland’s kicking game lacked variety and that contributed to their disappointing attacking return.

Who would have predicted at the start of the tournament that Ireland would finish at third or lower for most attacking metrics?

Ireland’s scrum was exposed – with tighthead prop Tadhg Furlong missing some key fixtures – and their lineout and maul proved largely ineffective against the better sides.

It was fitting that Shaun Edwards was interviewed after France beat Scotland to seal the Six Nations title this past Saturday.

Many will focus on France’s attack and the exploits of Bielle-Biarrey in the aftermath, but duecredit should go to Edwards, and to kicking coach Vlok Cilliers.

England conceded the fewest points across the championship, while France conceded the fewest tries (10). Edwards will be thrilled with the team’s physicality and discipline, as France conceded the fewest defensive penalties overall.

There are so many similarities between the Boks and France, and it will be interesting to see which side prevails if both stick to their strengths when they meet in Paris on 8 November.

After watching the Six Nations, the Boks will be slightly more confident ahead of their next match against Ireland on 22 November.

While three legends in Conor Murray, Peter O’Mahony and Cian Healy have moved on, Ireland is still searching for the necessary balance between youth and experience.

It may take some more time to get that balance right, and in the period of transition, they will continue to be vulnerable.

It’s hard to say what might happen when the Boks meet Wales in the final match on the 2025 calendar. The Dragons have plumbed new depths since losing to South Africa 45-12 in Cardiff last November.

Wales showed more intent in the second half of the 2025 Six Nations, and some of interim coach Matt Sherratt’s selections made a notable difference. Unfortunately, the outcome was much the same.

The Wales attack came in last for points, tries and linebreaks. The defence conceded the most points overall – and the record defeat to England in Cardiff certainly highlighted the depth of the Dragons’ problems.

No team leaked more penalties (59) or lost more scrums. While the Wales lineout showed some fight, and while individual back row forwards like Jac Morgan were one of the tournament’s most consistent performers, the collective’s breakdown work was erratic. Wales lost the most rucks while making fewer breakdown steals than any other side.

To say that Wales has work to do before hosting the Boks and other southern-hemisphere sides this November is an understatement.

A message from the #Springboks coach at the conclusion of the first alignment camp 🗣#ForeverGreenForeverGold pic.twitter.com/tLBdDleVKq

— Springboks (@Springboks) March 12, 2025

Indeed, it remains to be seen whether they will improve on the tour to Japan in July, or whether they will end their 17-game losing streak.

While the Boks won’t take any of the aforementioned teams lightly, recent results and performances will give Erasmus food for thought.

They won’t play England this year – which is a pity, given the progress of Steve Borthwick’s side, and the fact that England have shown in past matches that they have the physicality and the game plan to stretch the Boks.

Ireland will challenge the Boks, albeit in different ways. That said, for the first time in over a decade, South Africa may head to Dublin as favourites.

Of the northern hemisphere teams, France will pose the biggest threat.

This statement is based on the side’s performance in the recent Six Nations as much as their results.

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Always fun when old friends (and a few new ones) meet again, even in the gym 💪#ForeverGreenForeverGold pic.twitter.com/UXi1RvASqc

— Springboks (@Springboks) March 11, 2025